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NFL Betting Trends for Help with Pro Football Wagering

by Victor Ryan - 9/20/2016

Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals

Taking the points has been a profitable proposition through the first two weeks of the NFL season. Following another winning week, underdogs improved to 19-13 (59.4 percent) overall against the number. The pendulum figures to swing the other way eventually, but so far favorites have had a tough time covering.

Here's a look at some other trends, stats and notes from Week 2:

Outperforming The Odds

Biggest Covers

[+25.5] Cardinals (-7.5) 40, Buccaneers 7

[+21] Chargers (-3) 38, Jaguars 14

[+18] Eagles (+3) 29, Bears 14

This was a big-time, bounce-back performance from the Cardinals (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) following their disappointing loss in Week 1. Carson Palmer threw for more than 300 yards (18-of-31, 308 YDS, 3 TD) and the running game combined for 101 yards on 29 carries. The defense was equally impressive, as Jameis Winston was picked off four times and held to just 243 passing yards on 52 attempts.

This week the Cardinals are 4-point favorites at the Bills and the Bucs (1-1 ATS, 1-1 SU) return home as a 4.5-point favorite against the Rams.

San Diego (1-1 SU, 2-0) also rebounded from a bitter Week 1 loss by pummeling the Jaguars at Qualcomm Stadium. This game was never in doubt as the Chargers racked up 150 rushing yards and Phillip Rivers (17-of-24, 220 YDS) threw four TD passes. As for the Jags (0-2, 0-2), the so-called "winners of the offseason" for the talent brought in has been the league's biggest disappointment. This team has yet to show any improvement whatsoever in the tenure of coach Gus Bradley.

This week the Jags are a 1 -point home 'dawg against the Ravens (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) and the Chargers are a 2.5-point underdog at the Colts (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS).

The Eagles (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) sure seem to have found their man in rookie QB Carson Wentz. Though the numbers (21-of-34, 190 YDS, 1 TD, 0 INT) didn't jump off the page in the win over the Bears (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS), the No. 2 overall pick looked in complete control throughout his first professional road test.

As for the Bears, they look to be a complete dumpster fire at this point. First and foremost is a straight up lack of winning talent. There are holes across the board with this team, most notably at quarterback. Jay Cutler has continued to be a disappointment, but now he's likely out with an injured thumb on his throwing hand. Veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer, who came on in relief and went 9-of-12 for 78 yards Monday night, is expected to start this week.

Chicago will look to get on track as a 7.5-point road favorite against the Cowboys (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS), while the Eagles are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Steelers (2-0 SU, 2-0ATS).

Who Let the Dogs Out?

ATS Underdogs Profitable

Home underdogs not only went an excellent 3-1 ATS in Week 2, but three of the four also were straight up winners. The biggest upset was the Rams 9-3 win over the Seahawks as a 5.5-point home 'dawg.

The only home 'dawg to lose both straight up and versus the number was Cleveland. The Brown's 25-20 loss to the Ravens as a four-point 'dawg dropped them to 0-2 SU/ATS.

Home Underdogs ATS (Week 2): 3-1 (75.0 percent)

Home Underdogs ATS (season): 5-4 (55.6 percent)

Moving Over

Scoring has exceeded expectations through the first two weeks of the season. Nine more games surged over the total in Week 2, pushing the "over" to a profitable 56.3 percent for the season.

It would seem a big reason for this early scoring trend is the largely improved quarterback play around the league. Many of the young hotshots (Winston, Carr, Bortles, Mariota) have taken strides with added experience, and the unknowns (Wentz, Siemian, Prescott) have largely exceeded expectations.

"Over" Record (Week 2): 9-7 (56.3 percent)

"Over" Record (season): 18-14 (56.3 percent)

Looking Ahead

This week's NFL slate is light on any real marquee matchups. The most notable games would include Broncos at Bengals (-3) and Vikings at Panthers (-7.5). Here are a few trends for the week ahead to get your handicapping started.

Notable ATS Trends for Week 3

-- Arizona (-4 at Buffalo) is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.

--Denver (+3 at Cincinnati) is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.

--Jacksonville (+1 vs. Ravens) is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.

--Washington (+4.5 at Giants) is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.

--Oakland (+1.5 at Tennessee) is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.

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