NFL Betting Trends for Help with Pro Football Wagering 9/27/2016

by Victor Ryan - 9/27/2016

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz

After three weeks of the NFL season, there are still four teams with perfect records against the spread. This group includes defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, upstart Eagles, Vikings and Patriots.

Conversely, just one team remains winless against the spread entering Week 4. The scuffling Bears fell to 0-3 ATS after losing in Dallas 31-17 as a 6.5-point road underdog. Bettors know all streaks come to an end at some point; will this be the week? Chicago is installed as a 3.5-point home 'dawg against the Lions this week. That might be worth a look as underdogs in general have done well so far this season.

Here are some other trends and notes to consider as we start week 4:

Outperforming the Odds

Week 3 Biggest Covers

[+34.5] Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 3

[+27] New England Patriots (pk) 27, Houston Texans 0

[+20] Buffalo Bills (+5) 33, Arizona Cardinals 18

--The Eagles look to be for real following this complete beatdown of the Steelers. Philadelphia now enters its bye week having allowed just 27 points this season, which is the fewest in the league. This team has been much more than just rookie sensation Carson Wentz. Rookie head coach Doug Peterson has also been great. Next Up: bye

--The Texans (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) had to feel they had a big chance against the Patriots and their third-string QB, which makes this throttling all the more devastating. Houston, which beat the Bears and Chiefs to open the season, showed they're nowhere near primetime. This loss could linger in H-Town. Next Up: (-6.5) vs. Titans

--Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Chris Berman's decades-long proclamation proved correct on Sunday as the previously-winless Bills pummeled the Cardinals at home. The Ryan Brothers defense finally got after it, forcing Carson Palmer into four interceptions. Things must be feeling a lot better in Buffalo this week. Yes, that was a nice win, but this team still seems to lack the talent for any sustained success. Next Up: at New England (off)

That's My 'Dog

It was another strong week for underdogs, particularly home underdogs. The Bills (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), Eagles and Jaguars (0-3, 1-2) all received points at home and cashed in Week 3, increasing the strike rate of home 'dogs for the season to a healthy 61.2 percent.

Home underdogs taken as a whole do not hold any statistical advantage historically. This indicates the tide is likely to turn soon. There are five home underdogs this week:

Colts at Jaguars (+2.5)

Seahawks at Jets (+1.5)

Panthers at Falcons (+3.5)

Lions at Bears (+3.5)

Broncos at Bucs (+3)

Cowboys at 49ers (+3)

Home Underdogs ATS (Week 3): 3-1 (75.0 percent)

Home Underdogs ATS (season): 8-5 (61.2 percent)

Move Over

The Falcons 45-32 win over the Saints on Monday night made it another winning week for the "over." That total of 54 was also the highest of the week. The lowest total of Week 3 was Texans-Patriots (38.5), and it easily went under.

For Week 4, there are two games with totals exceeding 50 points. The lines call for plenty of points in Saints at Chargers (53.5) and Panthers at Falcons (50).

The lowest total is Seahawks at Jets (39). Both teams have obviously struggled to score this season, and now it appears Seattle could be without Russell Wilson. Points will be at a premium.

"Over" Record (Week 3): 9-7 (56.3 percent)

"Over" Record (season): 27-21 (56.3 percent)

Moving On

Notable Week 4 Betting Trends

-- Indianapolis (-2.5 at Jacksonville) is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.

--Atlanta (+3 vs. Carolina) is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.

--The Jets (+1.5 vs. Seattle) is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog.

--San Diego (-4 vs. New Orleans) is 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss.

--Minnesota (-4 vs. Giants) is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite.

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