NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Week 10 Predictions

by Aaron Smith - 11/2/2016

Brent Stockstill Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

It's time for Week 10 of the college football mid-major betting report. How is it already Week 10? It seems like the football season flies by every year. We've reached the month of November. Weather could start playing a bigger role in games from now through the rest of the year. MTSU kept their momentum from the win at Missouri going last weekend, and now the Blue Raiders look to close out the last four weeks of the season with a bang.

Through the rest of the season, I'll continue to follow everyone associated with the MTSU football program on Twitter. I'll also be reading the work of beat writers and following team press conferences. Any way I can, I'll be looking to find extra bits of information to try to gain an edge. Essentially, I'll be looking to make myself an expert on this MTSU Blue Raiders team. The goal of this article is to show that specialization can be a profitable sports betting strategy.

This is the sixth straight season I'm doing the mid-major report for Doc's Sports. How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done? Overall, the record is 32 wins and 24 losses with a gain of $1,460. We are coming off a really strong season following the Temple Owls. The selections on the Temple games last year went 11-4 and we gained $1,050 over the course of the season.

There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.

Last Game

MTSU went to Florida International and won 42-35. The Blue Raiders were favored by 17.5, so they didn't come close to covering the spread. However, they did win on the road inside the conference, so it has to be considered a good day for the team. FIU has played better for the interim coach, and this game wasn't easy.

MTSU was actually outgained 517 yards to 466 yards. FIU had 26 first downs compared to 23 for MTSU. FIU controlled the time of possession. The Golden Panthers had the ball for 39:32 compared to only 20:28 for the Blue Raiders.

How did MTSU win the game? MTSU took care of the football. The Blue Raiders forced three FIU turnovers, while MTSU didn't turn it over all game. D.J. Sanders picked one off and ran it back for a touchdown with 1:22 left to give MTSU a thrilling 42-35 win. Richie James and Ty Lee both had two receiving touchdowns for the Blue Raiders.

Last week's two unit selection on over 63 points was a winner.

Notes of Interest

-MTSU has a favorable schedule the rest of the way. The Blue Raiders should be favored in all four of their remaining regular-season games. The Blue Raiders have to take care of their own business and hope someone trips up Western Kentucky between now and the end of the season.

-Four of MTSU's last five games have been decided by a touchdown or less.

-MTSU hosts UTSA this weekend. At the press conference this week, MTSU quarterback Brent Stockstill spoke about the UTSA defense. Stockstill said, "Just the athleticism of this defense is something that has stood out all year. They pose a threat with every position on the field." Stockstill set a MTSU school record with his 56th career touchdown this past weekend.

-UTSA's leading pass rusher, Jared Davenport, was tossed from last week's win over North Texas for a targeting penalty, and he will miss the first half of this game. That's important, too, since MTSU is second in the nation in sacks allowed this year. Brent Stockstill has been sacked only five times!

-You wouldn't have suspected it, but UTSA is fifth in the nation with five plays of 70 yards or more on the season. The Roadrunners offense clearly has some big-play ability. MTSU has only allowed one play of 60 yards or more all season, so the Blue Raiders have done a nice job keeping things in front of them. They'll have to continue doing that this weekend.

Betting Trends

-UTSA is 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six road games.

-MTSU is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

-The 'under' is 5-2 in UTSA's last seven games.

-The under is 5-0 in MTSUs last five games in the month of November.

UTSA vs. MTSU College Football Odds

MTSU opened as a 17.5-point home favorite in this one. Bettors have been laying the points all week, and this line is now up to MTSU -20.5 across the board. The posted total opened at 62 points. The total is now up to 64.5 at most books.

UTSA vs. MTSU College Football Picks

This is the hardest MTSU game to handicap so far this year. UTSA has a solid defense, but there's no doubt that MTSU has the better skill position players by a wide margin on the offensive end. I'm not sure UTSA wants to get into a high-scoring game with MTSU, but they might not have a choice. I don't want to lay 20.5 points here, and I can't justify betting over this high of a number.

For the first time this season, I'm going to pass on making a selection. Bettors need to understand that passing is alright if you feel the game is a total coin toss. There will always be better opportunities ahead!

Pick: No Selection This Week

Season Results- 5 Wins 4 Losses (-$340)

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