NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks

by Aaron Smith - 10/18/2016

Week 7 is in the rear view mirror. There were a bunch of very close games in college football last weekend. Ohio State was a little fortunate to get out of Wisconsin with a win over the Badgers. Clemson was extremely fortunate to pull out the victory at home over NC State. The Top 25 as whole went 8-11 against the spread last week.

There were three selections in last week's article, and we went 2-1 on those plays. The big five unit play was a big winner. North Carolina +7.5 cashed in nicely as the Tar Heels pulled the outright upset at Miami. That was a spot where North Carolina had a ton of value because of their poor showing in the bad weather the previous week against Virginia Tech. Miami was in a tough spot as they had to bounce back from their rough loss at home to rival Florida State. North Carolina controlled that game throughout and won on the road.

Oregon State +9.5 cashed in the awful weather in the Pacific Northwest. The winds were howling at up to 50 miles per hour during that game. Oregon State isn't a good team, but Utah was getting too much credit in the betting markets, and weather like that definitely lends itself to close, low-scoring games.

The lone loser was on Kansas State +10.5. The Wildcats were simply outclassed by Oklahoma last weekend. While it was a good spot for them to try to get some revenge from the previous year's 55-0 thumping, the Sooners just had too much talent in that contest.

So far on the season, Top 25 teams are cashing at only a 45.8 percent clip, so there has been real value fading the Top 25 overall. My selections at the end of this article are 10-13, but the bigger plays have cashed in, so we are showing a profit on the season thus far.

The goal of this article is to track how teams in the weekly Top 25 do against the spread. We're here to look a little deeper than most and figure out how the top-ranked teams do at the betting window. In addition, in this weekly article I'll be taking a look at which Top 25 teams I think are best to fade that particular week. Doc's Unit System will be used for all picks.

I feel like this is a tough week to find value betting against the Top 25. I certainly don't want to force anything just to be making plays, so I'm going to make this a much smaller card than we usually have.

Play #1- Virginia +8 (1 Unit Play) vs. North Carolina I feel like it could be a good spot to fade North Carolina coming off that big win at Miami, but there are some things about this game that give me pause, so I'm keeping this to only a one unit play.

North Carolina's defense still struggles against the run. The Tar Heels are giving up 4.47 yards per carry on the season. The problem is Virginia isn't really a team well-equipped to take advantage of that weakness. The Cavs are a pass-heavy team, and they are averaging only 3.83 yards per carry on the season.

I do like the fact that Virginia is off a misleading loss at home to Pittsburgh. The Cavs lost by 14 points in that one, but they actually outgained the Panthers. Virginia is an improving team under Bronco Mendenhall, and I'll take them at more than a touchdown for a one unit play.

Play #2- Texas Tech +14 (1 Unit Play) vs. Oklahoma Kliff Kingsbury said, "I'm embarrassed. I have to apologize to the fans, student body, and alumni. That was as bad as it gets." That's what he said after last weekend's beat down at the hands of West Virginia. Texas Tech was at home in that one, and they never showed up for that contest.

I believe the fact that they played so poorly last week and they were publicly called out by the head coach could lead to an improved effort from Texas Tech this week. I'm not going to pretend to think that Texas Tech can stop Oklahoma's offense in this one, but I'm not sure the Sooners can stop Texas Tech, either. After all, Oklahoma has allowed at least 40 points in three games already this year.

Given the 14 points, I'm going to make a one unit play on the Red Raiders in this one.

Last Week's Results: 2 Wins (North Carolina +7.5 for 5 Units and Oregon State +9.5 for 2 units) 1 Loss (Kansas State +10.5 for 2 units)

Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 10 Wins 13 Losses (+$260)

Overall Top 25 ATS Record Last Week: 8 Wins 11 Losses

Cumulative Overall Top 25 ATS Record Year to Date: 70 Wins (45.8%) 82 Losses (53.6%) 1 Tie (0.7%)

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