NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks

by Aaron Smith - 11/3/2016

The Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks article for Week 10 is ready to go. If you were fading the Top 25 in Week 9, you made a lot of money! Five teams in the Top 25 were on a bye, and the rest of the teams went 7-13 against the spread.

This continues a season-long trend where fading the Top 25 has been very profitable. So far this year, if you bet against the Top 25 team in every circumstance you would be hitting 54.9 percent of your plays. Underdogs overall are hitting at a 53.32 percent clip on the year. Even more stunning, underdogs have cashed in 60.18 percent of the time in the past month alone.

Can fading the Top 25 be this profitable the rest of the way? It seems like it would be difficult for the underdogs to keep hitting at this kind of a rate, but we'll be tracking it the rest of the way!

The selections from last week's article went 3-2. Fortunately, one of the two losers was a one unit play. Two of the three winners were four unit plays, and one was a three unit winner.

Oklahoma State won outright as a dog and stopped West Virginia's unbeaten season. Florida State had a real shot to beat Clemson, but Deshaun Watson and the Clemson Tigers escaped with the win. The Seminoles got the cover, and that was what mattered to the bottom line here. Virginia +33 ended up being one of the best plays of the week as Louisville was extremely fortunate to get out of Virginia with a last-second win.

Purdue led Penn State late in the first half before the wheels totally fell off the Boilermakers train. There is a reason they have such an awful record this year. Purdue is consistently getting crushed by turnovers. Wisconsin won over Nebraska, but it took an extra session, and they failed to cover the number.

In all, a 3-2 week where we gained 4.5 units is a great week. On to Week 10!

Play #1- Syracuse +26 (3 unit play) vs. Clemson Clemson has made a habit out of playing close games this year. The Tigers are coming off that all-important win at Florida State, and this is the ultimate letdown situation for them. Syracuse gave Clemson a scare last year, and the Orange are a much better team than they were last season.

Syracuse is a team that has backdoor cover potential as well with the way they play on offense. The fast-paced aerial attack should be able to keep them within this very large number. I certainly don't expect Clemson to lose this game, and it probably won't be really close, but we're catching nearly four touchdowns here. I'll take Syracuse as a big underdog because of the situational spot for Clemson.

Play #2- Nebraska +17 (2 unit play) vs. Ohio State I'll cautiously fade Ohio State in this one. The Buckeyes are a better team than they have shown of late, but the steam move from 13.5 up to 17 makes me take a small piece of the action here. Nebraska showed a lot with how they fought in a tough night environment at Wisconsin last weekend.

Ohio State has problems both on the offensive line and at the wide receiver spots. The Buckeyes aren't giving J.T. Barrett enough time to throw, and when he does have time his receivers aren't getting separation. Ohio State has gotten too predictable with running plays and short passes to their backs.

Also, it isn't a bad idea to grab 17 points in a game totaled at 52.5 points. Ohio State needs to prove they can cover a big number like this against a good team.

Play #3- TCU +8 (1 unit play) vs. Baylor This is purely a situational spot play. TCU has covered only one number so far this year, and yet they are getting nearly all the sharp money early in the week. The Horned Frogs have a really good coach in Gary Patterson, and he is likely to get things turned around.

Baylor just had their bubble burst last weekend. The Bears haven't been playing all that well this year, but they had been able to pull out a lot of close games. That ended last weekend as Texas picked up a comeback win over the Bears. It's hard to see how Baylor gets up for this game. They know their goals for this season are now gone. Maybe they pick up the pieces with quality efforts later, but just one week after the loss, I'll fade them for a small play.

Last Week's Results: 3 Wins (Florida State +5 for 4 units, Oklahoma State +4 for 4 units, and Virginia +33 for 3 units ) 2 Losses (Purdue +13.5 for 4 units and Wisconsin -8.5 for 1 unit)

Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 14 Wins 16 Losses (+$800)

Overall Top 25 ATS Record Last Week: 7 Wins 13 Losses

Cumulative Overall Top 25 ATS Record Year to Date: 86 Wins (44.6%) 106 Losses (54.9%) 1 Tie (0.5%)

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