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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, May 25, 2016, Opening Line Report

by - 5/24/2016

Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier

It's not too often that I'll say a team missing a guy hitting .236 with five homers and 16 RBIs is a huge loss, but that's definitely the case for the Tampa Bay Rays and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. He broke two bones attempting to make a diving catch on Saturday in Detroit and was to have surgery on Tuesday. He's out 8-10 weeks. This guy is an utter magician in the outfield. Last year, he had 42 Defensive Runs Saved, the highest ever recorded in a single season since that stat has been kept track of in 2003. He also led all center fielders with 15 assists in taking home a Gold Glove. The Rays don't have a great offense, so they generally have to win by preventing runs. That's not going to be as easy without Kiermaier.

Mets at Nationals (-111, 7.5)

First pitch of the day with a 1:05 p.m. ET start time. The Mets learned on Monday that slugging first baseman Lucas Duda had a stress fracture in his back, and he was placed on the disabled list. Duda will likely miss at least 4-6 weeks. When teammate David Wright suffered a lower back stress fracture in 2011, he missed 58 games. Duda was hitting .231 with seven homers and 19 RBIs. New York starts lefty Steven Matz (6-1, 2.81) here. He beat the Brewers last time out, allowing two runs and three hits over seven innings. It was his first start in 11 days due to forearm soreness. Matz has never faced Washington. The Nationals go with Tanner Roark (3-3, 2.89). They had lost four straight of his starts, but Roark beat the Marlins on Friday, allowing one run and six hits over 6.2 innings. He is 5-0 with a 3.05 ERA in 11 career appearances (six starts) against the Mets. Curtis Granderson is 6-for-16 with four doubles off him. Neil Walker is 2-for-5 with two doubles.

Key trends: The Mets are 6-0 in Matz's past six road starts. Washington is 1-5 in Roark's past six vs. teams with a winning record. The "over/under" has gone under in six of Roark's past eight. The Nats are 5-1 in Roark's past six vs. New York.

Early lean: Nationals and under.

Royals at Twins (-103, 8.5)

A 1:10 p.m. ET start time. Kansas City has lost outfielder Alex Gordon for 3-4 weeks. He broke a bone in his wrist after colliding with teammate Mike Moustakas on Sunday. It is the same wrist that Gordon injured in 2014 that eventually required surgery. Gordon got a big new extension this offseason but is really struggling at the plate. Like Kiermaier, he's a stellar defensive player. The Royals start Dillon Gee (1-1, 2.90) here. He beat the White Sox in his last start, allowing a run and four hits over five innings. He threw two shutout innings of relief earlier this season vs. the Twins. Joe Mauer is 2-for-4 with a double off him. The Twins counter with Tyler Duffey (1-3, 3.30). He was rocked for six runs and nine hits Friday against Toronto. Duffey has never faced Kansas City.

Key trends: The Twins are 6-2 in Duffey's past eight vs. the AL Central. They have lost eight straight Wednesday games. The under is 5-2 in Duffey's past seven.

Early lean: Twins and over.

Cubs at Cardinals (+152, 7)

A 1:45 p.m. ET matinee. I'm calling my shot: the crazy winning streak of Cubs ace and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta will end Wednesday in St. Louis. The Cubs have won 22 straight starts by Arrieta (8-0, 1.29), tied for the second-longest such streak in MLB history behind then-Atlanta Brave Kris Medlen (23 from 2010-12). Arrieta has won his last 16 road decisions, dating back to last season. Only Hall of Famer Greg Maddux (18 straight in 1994-95) has a longer streak in MLB history. And the Cubs have outscored their opponents by 58 runs in Arrieta's nine starts, tied for the best run differential in a pitcher's first nine starts of a season in the modern era. He hasn't faced St. Louis this year. In 2015, he was 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals. Matt Holliday is just 1-for-15 against him. Matt Adams is 5-for-15 with three RBIs. The Cardinals have lost four straight starts by Carlos Martinez (4-4, 3.56). But he beat the Cubs on April 20, allowing one run and three hits over seven innings. Anthony Rizzo is 4-for-15 with two homers and six RBIs against him.

Key trends: The Cardinals are 5-0 in Martinez's past five vs. the Cubs. The over has hit just once in his past 11 overall at home. The under is 4-1 in Arrieta's past five on Wednesday.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.

Angels at Rangers (-115, 9)

Another getaway game with a 2:05 p.m. ET start. Texas has announced something that I predicted would happen weeks ago: Josh Hamilton won't play this season. He needs another surgery on his left knee, and I'd frankly be surprised if Hamilton ever takes the field again. The Rangers also have lost fellow outfielder Shin-Soo Choo back to the disabled list with a strained right hamstring. He just came off that on Friday. On the mound for the Rangers is Colby Lewis (3-0, 2.75). He has thrown exactly seven innings in five straight starts. He beat the Angels on April 29, giving up two runs and nine hits over seven innings. Kole Calhoun is a .387 hitter off him with a homer and five RBIs in 31 at-bats. Mike Trout is 13-for-33 with four homers and 11 RBIs against him. Lefty Hector Santiago (3-2, 3.93) goes for the Halos. He is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts this year vs. Texas.

Key trends: The Angels are 7-1 in Santiago's past eight on the road. The over is 8-2-1 in Lewis' past 11 at home vs. the Angels. Texas is 2-8 in Lewis' past 10 against them.

Early lean: Angels and over.

Marlins at Rays (-148, 8)

Miami will add the designated hitter in this interleague game as the series shifts from South Florida to St. Petersburg. Will the Marlins have outfielder Christian Yelich? He hasn't played since Friday due to back spasms. Ichiro Suzuki has been starting in his place and is red hot. The Rays will now use Mikie Mahtook in center field as he was called up from Triple-A. Tampa starts Matt Andriese (3-0, 2.11) on the mound. His first two starts this year were great, but he wasn't quite as sharp last time out, allowing four runs in 5.1 innings vs. Detroit -- but still won. He has thrown one career scoreless inning vs. the Marlins. They go with lefty Justin Nicolino (2-2, 4.30). He allowed four runs over 5.1 innings in his last start vs. Washington. The Fish have dropped his past three. Nicolino has never faced the Marlins.

Key trends: The Marlins are 0-12 in their past 12 interleague road games. The Rays are 8-1 in their past nine interleague games at home. They are 4-1 in Andriese's past five at home. The under is 2-0-2 in Nicolino's past four road starts vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Rays and under.

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