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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, April 6, 2016, Opening Line Report

by - 4/5/2016

Freddie Freeman Atlanta Braves

You 100 percent can't take anything as gospel from one regular-season baseball game, but wow I'd be concerned right now if I bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the NL West and went over their wins total for the 2016 season. I liked the Snakes a fair amount this season with the offseason additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller. I liked them a lot less after learning that All-Star and Gold Glove outfielder A.J. Pollock, a rising star, might miss the season with a broken elbow. That's crushing news. Then on Monday, Greinke was battered by the Colorado Rockies for seven runs and nine hits in just four innings. To be fair, he was supposedly pitching with the flu.

Giants at Brewers (+125, 8.5)

It's the San Francisco debut of Jeff Samardzija, and he clearly needed a return to the National League as he was pummeled often last season with the Chicago White Sox. He had career-worsts in ERA (4.96), strikeout percentage (18 percent) and opponent OPS (.765). "Shark" tied for the most homers allowed in the AL with 29 and led the league in hits and earned runs allowed. But the guy is durable and has plus stuff and that's why San Francisco gave him $90 million. Samardzija is 0-3 with a 6.30 ERA in 13 career games at Miller Park. This was to be Matt Garza's spot in the rotation for Milwaukee, but to no surprise he's hurt again and on the DL. Thus it goes to Taylor Jungmann. He was a very nice surprise as a rookie, getting called up in early June and staying there by going 9-8 with a 3.77 ERA. He didn't face the Giants. The only San Francisco batter who has faced him is Denard Span, who is 2-for-2.

Key trends: The Brewers are 4-1 in Jungmann's past five home starts. The "over/under" has gone under in six of his past eight in Game 3 of a series.

Early lean: Brewers and under.

Phillies at Reds (-132, 8)

ESPN2 game and should have live betting at sportsbooks. If I'm being honest, I'm not planning to preview a ton of Phillies or Reds games this season as both are going to be wretched. But, sometimes you have to tear it all down to get good again. And the Phillies have a few really good-looking young players -- one starts here in Aaron Nola. He was 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 late-season starts in 2015 as a rookie. Nola doesn't throw real hard but has great control and induces a lot of ground balls. He has not faced the Reds. Cincinnati opened the season with its entire projected rotation on the DL. The Reds start Brandon Finnegan here. He was acquired last July from Kansas City in the Johnny Cueto deal. Finnegan was 2-2 with a 4.18 ERA in 23.2 innings with the Reds. Finnegan has never faced the Phillies.

Key trends: The Phillies are 1-4 in Nola's past five starts. The Reds are 2-9 in their past 11 vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 5-2-1 Cincinnati's past eight following an off day.

Early lean: Phillies and under.

Twins at Orioles (-127, 8.5)

What is it with the Twins and Opening Day? They lost 3-2 in Baltimore on Monday (teams off on Tuesday), the team's eighth straight season-opening loss. It was Baltimore's sixth Game 1 win in a row. Minnesota turns to Kyle Gibson here. He was the team's most consistent starter last season, posting a 3.84 ERA (11-11 record) in a team-leading 32 starts. Gibson was also was great this spring. He faced Baltimore twice in 2015, going 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA. Chris Davis is 0-for-5 off him with three strikeouts. J.J. Hardy is 2-for-5 with a homer. It's new Oriole Yovani Gallardo for the Birds. The team originally signed him for three years in free agency but then it was restructured to two years because the O's didn't like something in his physical. Gallardo started last year strong with Texas but he struggled in the second half with a 1.72 WHIP and lasting six innings just twice in 14 starts. He was 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA overall and threw 5.2 shutout innings in his lone start vs. Minnesota.

Key trends: The Twins are 3-9 in Gibson's past 12 vs. the AL East. The Orioles are 6-1 in their past seven after an off day. The over is 4-1 in Gibson's past five against the AL East.

Early lean: Orioles and over.

Nationals at Braves (+178, 7.5)

It's the first start of what is widely expected to be the final season in Washington for Stephen Strasburg. He was very shaky in his first 10 starts last year and then landed on the DL. In his final 13 starts, he had a 1.76 ERA and struck out 110 against just 12 walks. Strasburg finished 11-7 overall with a 3.46 ERA. He faced Atlanta twice and was 2-0 without allowing an earned run in 11.0 innings and striking out 13. Freddie Freeman is 12-for-28 career off him with three homers and nine RBIs. Atlanta starts journeyman Bud Norris, who is simply a placeholder until some of the team's young pitching prospects are ready. He was an ugly 3-11 with a 6.72 ERA with San Diego and Baltimore last year. Bryce Harper is 0-for-2 career off him. Maybe Stephen Drew gets a spot start as he's 9-for-25 with five extra-base hits off Norris.

Key trends: The Nats are 4-0 in Strasburg's past four vs. the NL East. The Braves are 5-16 in their past 21 in Game 2 of a series. The under is 6-0 in Strasburg's past six on the road.

Early lean: Nationals on runline and under.

White Sox at A's (-133, 7)

Your latest first pitch at 10 p.m. ET and also shown on ESPN2. Chicago goes with second-year lefty Carlos Rodon (9-6, 3.75), who is many ways is the key to this team in 2015 following Chris Sale and Jose Quintana on the rotation. Rodon was very inconsistent until about August last year. But he went 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his final eight starts. Rodon's spring ERA was nearly 8.00, though. Oakland's Josh Reddick is 1-for-2 with three RBIs off him career. The A's go with ace Sonny Gray (14-7, 2.73 ERA), who was third in last year's Cy Young voting. He was to start the season opener on Monday opposite Sale in a great matchup, but Gray was hospitalized with food poisoning. His worst start of 2015 was vs. the White Sox, allowing seven runs and eight hits in three innings in Chicago. Jose Abreu is 2-for-6 with a homer and four RBIs off Gray.

Key trends: The Sox are 1-6 in their past seven Wednesday games. Oakland is 5-2 in Gray's past seven at home. The under has hit in five of Rodon's past seven on the road.

Early lean: A's and under.

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