Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, May 10, 2016, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 5/9/2016

Washington Nationals manager Dusty Baker needs to adjust his lineup. Because clearly Ryan Zimmerman hitting behind Bryce Harper isn't going to work -- at least if other managers around baseball follow the lead of the Cubs' Joe Maddon. On Sunday, Harper set a big-league record by reaching base seven times without an official at-bat. He walked six times and was hit by a pitch. The Cubs basically pitched around him all series and intentionally walked Harper in both the 10th and 12th innings on Sunday despite the fact there were runners on first and second base both times (and two outs). That's Barry Bonds treatment. Zimmerman didn't make the Cubs pay all day and left an amazing 14 runners on base. If I'm a manager, I'm daring Zimmerman (hitting .236 with one homer) to beat me too over Harper.

Royals at Yankees (-150, 7.5)

Bad news for the two-time American League champion Royals over the weekend as third baseman Mike Moustakas was lost to the disabled list with a fractured left thumb. It's likely to cost him three weeks. Moustakas is hitting .258 with seven homers for the struggling Royals. Kansas City starts Kris Medlen (1-3, 6.85) here. He comes off his worst start of the season, allowing nine runs and six hits over two innings against Washington. The Yankees' Carlos Beltran is 3-for-12 off him with two RBIs. Chase Headley is 3-for-11 with four strikeouts. New York goes with ace Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 2.29). He comes off his best start of the year, shutting out the Orioles on five hits over eight innings with seven strikeouts. Alas, he got yet another no-decision. Tanaka has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in all six starts this year. He has never faced the Royals.

Key trends: The Royals are 0-4 in Medlen's past four starts. The Yankees are 9-4 in Tanaka's past 13 with four days of rest. The "over/under" has gone under in five straight Tanaka starts.

Early lean: Yankees and under.

White Sox at Rangers (-105, 9.5)

My favorite pitching line of the season belongs to Texas lefty Derek Holland, who goes here. Holland (3-2, 5.40) was obliterated for 11 runs and 11 hits over 2.2 innings in his last start in Toronto. He's the only pitcher thus far to give up double-digit runs in 2016. Holland was the first MLB pitcher to allow 11 hits and 11 runs and strike out zero since Jon Garland for the White Sox in 2007. Holland's ERA nearly doubled in the process. He pitched at the White Sox on April 24 and took the loss, allowing three runs and five hits over 6.1 innings. Dioner Navarro is 3-for-5 off him with two homers and five RBIs. Austin Jackson is 4-for-16 with a homer. It's fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon (1-4, 4.36) for Chicago. He took a no-decision on April 23 vs. Texas, giving up two runs and two hits over 6.2 innings. Ian Desmond is 1-for-2 with a homer off him. Elvis Andrus is 0-for-6 with two strikeouts.

Key trends: The White Sox are 10-3 in Rodon's past 13 in Game 2 of a series. The Rangers are 10-4 in Holland's past 14 on Tuesday. The over is 4-1-1 in Holland's past six at home.

Early lean: Rangers and over.

Cardinals at Angels (-115, 8)

Los Angeles got terrible news over the weekend when ace Garrett Richards was diagnosed with a torn elbow ligament, which means Tommy John surgery. That pretty much kills any chance L.A. had of making the playoffs. And now the team is awaiting word on the injured thumb of shortstop Andrelton Simmons. He left Sunday's game in the third inning with what is for now called a sprained left thumb, but he was to have an MRI on Monday. L.A. goes with lefty Hector Santiago (2-1, 3.58) here. He allowed three runs in 5.1 innings last time out in Milwaukee. Santiago has never faced St. Louis. The Cardinals, who keep in mind will add the DH here, go with Mike Leake (0-3, 6.03), who has been a free-agent disappointment. He allowed four runs over five innings in his last start vs. the Phillies. Leake has yet to allow less than four runs in any start. He hasn't faced the Angels. Albert Pujols is 3-for-4 off him with two walks.

Key trends: The Cardinals are 1-5 in their past six after an off day. The Angels are 11-1 in Santiago's past 12 starts. The over is 4-1 in Leake's past five. The under is 4-0-1 in Santiago's past five at home.

Early lean: Angels and under.

Rays at Mariners (+100, 7)

Your early AL Player of the Month leader for May has to be Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano, who entered Monday batting .514 with four homers and nine RBIs this month. He leads the AL in homers and RBIs overall. He will deal with Rays starter and lefty Drew Smyly (1-3, 2.72) here. Smyly has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his past five outings. As you can see by his record, however, he gets very little run support. Cano is 0-for-6 against him with two strikeouts. Nelson Cruz is 2-for-13 with a double and five strikeouts. Kyle Seager is 2-for-6 with a double. It's lefty Wade Miley (2-2, 4.74) for Seattle. After a rough start to the season, he has been much better over his past two outings, allowing two earned over 15 innings. He's 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays. Evan Longoria is 5-for-19 off him with three doubles and two homers. Logan Forsythe is 6-for-21 with two doubles and a homer.

Key trends: The Rays are 5-1 in Smyly's past six road starts. The Mariners are 1-5 in their past six vs. a lefty. The under is 10-2-1 in Smyly's past 13 road starts.

Early lean: Rays and under.

Mets at Dodgers (+110, 7)

New York's Jacob deGrom is somewhat responsible for the fact that the Dodgers fired Manager Don Mattingly last October. That's because deGrom beat Los Angeles twice in the NLDS. He shut them out over seven innings in Game 1 and then allowed two runs and six hits over six innings in the clinching Game 5 in Los Angeles. DeGrom (3-1, 1.99) gets the call here. He allowed a season-high three runs and eight hits over five innings last time out in San Diego. Adrian Gonzalez is 3-for-8 career off him in the regular season with two homers and five RBIs. The Dodgers go with lefty Alex Wood (1-3, 5.18). He has tended to alternate good starts with bad ones this season. He lost at Tampa Bay on Wednesday, allowing five runs and six hits (three homers) over five innings. David Wright is 3-for-7 off him with two walks. Curtis Granderson is 1-for-8.

Key trends: The Mets are 12-3 in deGrom's past 15 on the road. The over is 4-1 in his past five. The over is 7-2 in Wood's past nine.

Early lean: Mets and over.

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