Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, April 12, 2016, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 4/11/2016

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez

To no surprise, Colorado Rockies rookie shortstop Trevor Story won the first National League Player of the Week Award of the season as he became the first player in big-league history to hit seven homers in his first six games in the majors. Those are more dingers than half the teams have thus far. Story's helmet and batting gloves already are in Cooperstown, but Story said the Hall of Fame couldn't have his bat. Story, who averaged 14 home runs in his five minor league seasons, is on pace for 189 home runs and 324 RBIs this season. Here's guessing he doesn't even get to 25 homers. The record for most homers in April is 14 by Albert Pujols (2006) and Alex Rodriguez (2007).

Diamondbacks at Dodgers (-160, 7)

It's a 4:10 p.m. ET matinee on the MLB Network. The injury-ravaged Dodgers have lost outfielder Carl Crawford to the 15-day disabled list. He's dealing with stiffness in his lower back. Crawford (.273, two RBIs) was playing nearly every day because outfielder Andre Ethier is out until at least June with his own injury. But the Dodgers are expected to get both second baseman Howie Kendrick and catcher Yasmani Grandal off the DL on Tuesday. They start Japanese rookie Kenta Maeda. He had quite the debut last Wednesday, shutting out San Diego over six innings on five hits with no walks and four strikeouts. He also homered. Arizona, which has lost outfielder Ender Inciarte to the DL, goes with Patrick Corbin. The lefty lost to Colorado in his first start, allowing four runs on eight hits (three homers) in seven innings. Last year, Corbin was 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers. Adrian Gonzalez is 4-for-13 off him with a homer. Kendrick is 1-for-3 with two RBIs.

Key trends: Arizona is 4-1 in Corbin's past five road starts. The Dodgers are 5-0 in their past five against a lefty. The "over/under" has gone under in six of Corbin's past eight games.

Early lean: Dodgers and under.

Yankees at Blue Jays (-115, 8.5)

New York's Masahiro Tanaka was set to start Sunday night in Detroit but that game was postponed due to weather, so I'm sure the Yankees are more than happy to give him a couple extra days off. Although he was significantly better last year on regular rest than when he had extra rest, registering a 2.56 ERA with a 9.0 K/BB ratio after four days of rest compared to a 3.75 ERA and 4.7 K/BB ratio on five or more days of it. Tanaka took a no-decision last Tuesday at Yankee Stadium against Houston, allowing two runs and four hits over 5.2 innings. He was 2-2 with a 2.42 ERA last year in four starts against the Blue Jays. Edwin Encarnacion is 7-for-14 off him with a homer. Josh Donaldson is 1-for-13. Toronto's Aaron Sanchez struck out a career-high eight Rays in his first start of the season but took a no-decision despite allowing just one run over seven innings. Sanchez was 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in six relief appearances vs. the Yanks in 2015. Carlos Beltran is 2-for-3 with a homer and four RBIs against him.

Key trends: New York is 0-5 in its past five after an off day. It is 0-4 in Tanaka's past four starts. The Jays are 4-1 in Sanchez's past five at home. The under is 6-0 in Tanaka's past six vs. Toronto.

Early lean: Blue Jays and under.

Marlins at Mets (-127, 6)

Easily the pitching matchup of the day on paper and has the lowest total by far. It's Jose Fernandez for the Marlins, and he comes off the first home loss of his career (had been an MLB-record 17-0 there) last week against the Tigers, allowing five runs but striking out 13 in 5.2 innings. The whiffs were one shy of a career high. Away from Miami, Fernandez is 5-9 with a 3.78 ERA in his career. He didn't face the Mets last year. David Wright is 0-for-8 off him career. Lucas Duda is 2-for-7 with three walks. Noah Syndergaard was my pick for the NL Cy Young this season and he looked the part in his debut, shutting out the Royals on three hits over six innings, striking out nine. He was baffling the Kansas City batters with his new 93 mph slider. Syndergaard somehow managed to avoid facing the division rival Marlins as a rookie.

Key trends: The Marlins are 1-5 in Fernandez's past six road starts. The Mets are 9-2 in Syndergaard's past 11 at home. The under is 10-4 in his past 14 there.

Early lean: Mets and under.

Royals at Astros (-134, 8.5)

Rematch of last season's ALDS, won by the Royals in five games. Kansas City goes with No. 5 starter Kris Medlen, who before injuries looked like a rising star with the Atlanta Braves. He missed all of the 2014 season following Tommy John surgery and pitched just 58.1 innings for the Royals last year, going 6-2 with a 4.01 ERA. Not many Astros have faced him. Jose Altuve is 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Luis Valbuena is 1-for-4 with a double. Houston goes with Mike Fiers. He was knocked around a bit in his first start, allowing five runs and nine hits over five innings at the Yankees. Fiers pitched one inning against the Royals in the ALDS last year and allowed a run. Kendrys Morales is 2-for-3 career off him in the regular season with an RBI. Lorenzo Cain has a triple and RBI off him in two at-bats.

Key trends: The Royals are 4-0 in Medlen's past four road starts. Houston is 0-4 in Fiers' past four overall. The over is 6-2 in Medlen's past eight starts.

Early lean: Astros and over.

Giants at Rockies (+111, 11)

Story looks to continue his Babe Ruth impression against San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija He allowed three runs and eight hits over 5.1 innings in Milwaukee in his Giants debut last week. So basically he looked like the Samardzija of last season while with the White Sox. That's not a good thing. He didn't face the Rockies in 2015. Gerardo Parra is 6-for-15 off him with a homer and two RBIs. Carlos Gonzalez has a dinger off him in 12 at-bats. It's Tyler Chatwood for Colorado. In his first since April 29, 2014, off Tommy John surgery, he beat the Diamondbacks last Wednesday, allowing one earned run over 6.1 innings. The Giants ' Hunter Pence is just 1-for-16 off him. Buster Posey is 2-for-11 with three walks.

Key trends: The Rockies are 5-0 in Chatwood's past five series openers. The over is 5-1 in his past six starts.

Early lean: Rockies and over.

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