MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams 7/22/2016

by Aaron Smith - 7/22/2016

The All-Star break is certainly a welcome rest for the players, and baseball handicappers have to enjoy the break from the grind as well. Football season is fast approaching, and it will soon be getting all the headlines, so the next few weeks are the last time baseball will be in the spotlight until the playoffs get underway.

Doc's Sports has done an MLB Totals Trends report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this season. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' teams and the Top Five 'Under' teams in each article. Throughout the course of the long season, it can be very profitable to catch a team that is streaking in one direction or the other. This report will be offered on a bi-weekly basis throughout the Major League Baseball regular season. The numbers listed are for games played between June 24 and July 7.

The over had been cashing at a nice clip before the All-Star break, but things have changed in a hurry of late. The under is a whopping 56-33 in the past week alone. That has brought the yearly figure to 692 over (50.99 percent) and 665 under (49.01 percent). Ironically, of the 103 extra-inning games so far this year, 52.43 percent of them have stayed under the posted total.

This time around there were only four teams who even had more overs than unders, so that tells you all you need to know about recent trends in the totals market.

Top Over Teams (Over Listed First)

1. Cleveland Indians (6-2-1) It's a bit of a surprise to see the Indians here. Cleveland has arguably the best rotation in baseball. The Indians offense is improved, though. Francisco Lindor has been far better than anyone thought he could be this early in his career. Mike Napoli is having a tremendous season as well. Cleveland takes on Baltimore this weekend, and the Orioles have been a big under team of late. Something has to give!

2. Texas Rangers (6-3) Texas is coming back down to earth. The Rangers have been a nice story, but their rotation is banged up badly and the bullpen is terrible. When you have Kyle Lohse, Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Nick Martinez starting games for you, it is never a good sign. The Rangers offense has been better than expected this year. I do think the over with the Rangers could be a good play on the whole for the rest of the year.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (6-3) The Dodgers offense badly underachieved for a long time. Los Angeles has scored five runs or more in four of their first six games since the break. Corey Seager is leading the way, and this guy is going to be a star for many years. The under is 34-14 in the Dodgers home games this year. The over is 27-19-3 in their road games.

4. Kansas City Royals (5-4) Kansas City is a team that is tough to figure out. I don't think this team is good enough to make a return trip to the playoffs, but the Royals have proven everyone wrong plenty of times the last couple years. They've dealt with far more injuries this year. Kansas City hosts the Rangers and Angels in a six-game homestand starting tonight. They need to make a run now.

Top Five Under Teams (Under Listed First)

1. New York Mets (9-0) The Mets have played nine straight games that have gone under the total. New York ranks No. 28 in the majors in runs scored per game, but they are third in the majors in team ERA. The under is 53-39-2 overall for the Mets this year. I always like to look to play unders with this team, but I'm certainly worried that the value is gone in the near term.

2. Baltimore Orioles (9-1) It's pretty amazing that a team with a loaded offense like the Orioles could go nine straight games without scoring more than four runs in a game, but that is exactly what they have done. One of the big reasons for this is the Orioles have had a really bad virus going around in the dugout, and their best hitters have missed several games of late. Matt Wieters also has a foot injury, and he's a big loss.

3. Detroit Tigers (9-1) The Orioles and Tigers have two of the very best offense in the majors, but both have seen nine of their last 10 games go under the total. Detroit has scored two runs or less in their last four games. Since J.D. Martinez went down with an injury, the under is 18-12 in the Tigers games. The offense misses him quite a bit, and he is scheduled to be out until at least early August.

4. Philadelphia Phillies (8-2) The Phillies have been far more competitive than I expected them to be this year. I still expect this team to have a worse second half of the season. Philadelphia has been great in close games this year, and I think that has been more good fortune than anything else. Their next 10 games are on the road. Look out for a poor stretch from the Phillies. I'll look to play against them.

5. New York Yankees (7-3) All season long the Yankees offense has underachieved. Only Carlos Beltran has had a good season out of the Yankees veteran hitters. The starting rotation is up and down, but the back of this bullpen is so dominant. I like to look for unders with the Yankees when they are a significant favorite. If you can get Betances, Miller, and Chapman in the last three innings, the under has a solid chance of cashing.

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