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MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams

by - 8/5/2016

Paul Goldschmidt Arizona Diamondbacks

The Major League Baseball trade deadline has passed. There were some significant moves. The Rangers probably got the biggest immediate boost, especially on the offensive end. The Cleveland Indians were really aggressive, and having Andrew Miller in their bullpen is a huge boost for them. The Mets have been awful on offense, and they tried to give their offense a jolt by picking up Jay Bruce from the Reds. It won't matter this year, but lost in the shuffle was the fact that the New York Yankees got some tremendous young talent. Their farm system got a huge upgrade, and I expect that to pay off in a big way in the future.

Doc's Sports has done an MLB Totals Trends report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this season. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' teams and the Top Five 'Under' teams in each article. Throughout the course of the long season, it can be very profitable to catch a team that is streaking in one direction or the other.

This report will be offered on a bi-weekly basis throughout the Major League Baseball regular season. The numbers listed are for games played between July 22 and Aug. 4.

It's amazing that after so many games, the over and under are almost dead even. There have been 772 games go over the posted total and 767 finish under the total. That's why it is so important to catch teams on a big streak in one direction or the other to get an edge.

Top Over Teams (Over Listed First)

1. Minnesota Twins (9-4) The Minnesota Twins offense showed what they are capable of in a recent series in Cleveland. The Twins scored 37 runs in that four-game series. Minnesota's offense was never as bad as it looked early in the season. The oddsmakers adjusted the Twins numbers too low after their slow start, and now over bettors have made a killing in Minnesota's games. The over is 43-19-2 in the Twins last 63 games.

2. St. Louis Cardinals (8-4) The over is 26-26-3 in the Cardinals 55 home games this season. The over is 31-19-3 in the Cardinals 53 road games so far this year. St. Louis' offense has inexplicably knocked the cover off the ball on the road and struggled at home this year. In general, this is definitely a good offense, and it's hard to say why they have struggled so much at home. Matt Carpenter comes back from the disabled list this weekend though, and that's a huge boost!

3. Arizona Diamondbacks (8-4) This is a team I would never be interested in playing an under with the rest of the season. Why? This bullpen is just atrocious. The Diamondbacks now have the worst bullpen in the majors by a mile. Take a look at the Arizona games of late and you'll see that they have been giving up the runs in bunches late in the game. This team has been a huge disappointment in general this year.

4. Detroit Tigers (7-5-1) Detroit had been crushing the ball even before J.D. Martinez came back in the lineup, but his return has already proven to be crucial in the last couple days. Martinez gives this team yet another right-handed power bat. The Tigers don't have the pitching the Indians have, but they are on the heels of Cleveland thanks to this amazing offense.

5. Miami Marlins (7-5-1) If you look at this Miami roster, you'll see that they have an abundance of very good hitters. Dee Gordon was out for 80 games, but now he is back in the fold and that is huge for this team. Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna are having breakout seasons, and Stanton has slowly improved on his previously disappointing numbers as the season has moved along. This is a dangerous young team.

Top Five Under Teams (Under Listed First)

1. Baltimore Orioles (11-2) At one point, the Baltimore Orioles played 15 straight games that finished under the total. This was the perfect example of catching a team that was slumping offensively and riding the under. Why did it work out so well? Because Baltimore had been so stellar offensively early in the season, and the oddsmakers weren't going to adjust their numbers all that quickly. One word of caution, though: this Orioles lineup is too good to stay cold forever, and the value is likely almost gone here.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (9-3) This one isn't complicated at all. Tampa Bay's offense is as bad as you will find in the majors. Tampa Bay can get to left-handed pitching sometimes, but their performance vs. right-handed pitching has been a complete joke. The Rays have nothing to play for down the stretch. I would look to steer clear of putting much money on anything in Tampa Bay's games.

3. Boston Red Sox (10-4) Boston has what has been the best offense in baseball over the course of the season. Of late though, the Red Sox have been going through prolonged slumps. This is another case that is somewhat like Baltimore's, though this one hasn't been nearly as profitable for under bettors. The Red Sox consistently smash right-handed pitching, but lefties can sometimes confuse them for long stretches.

4. San Francisco Giants (9-4) I'm not sure what to think of the San Francisco Giants right now. It's an even year, and everyone knows what that has meant for the Giants in the past. San Francisco hasn't played inspired baseball since the break, though, and it will be interesting to see if they can get out of their recent funk. Their lead over the Dodgers is down to just two games. The Giants play in Washington and Miami in the next week.

5. Colorado Rockies (9-4) Colorado has been one of the hottest teams in the last couple weeks. The Rockies sit at 54-54 on the year, and they have to be considered a big surprise this year. Jon Gray has been great as their No. 1 starter. The bullpen is much improved compared to a year ago. Trevor Story is out for the year, and that is definitely a big loss. I'm skeptical on this team being able to keep up their recent run.

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