Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu
MLB Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Over and Under Teams for Baseball Wagering

by - 6/24/2016

Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Corey Kluber

Does the fact that the San Francisco Giants seem to just win World Series titles on even years make any real sense? No, but it's important to note that while the Giants have received much less publicity, they actually have just as many wins (47) as the Chicago Cubs. The best record in the American League belongs to the Texas Rangers, and they have just as many wins as the Cubs and Giants, too.

Doc's Sports has done an MLB Totals Trends report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this season. We'll highlight the Top 5 'Over' teams and the Top 5 'Under' teams in each article. Throughout the course of the long season, it can be very profitable to catch a team that is streaking in one direction or the other. This report will be offered on a bi-weekly basis throughout the Major League Baseball regular season. The numbers listed are for games played between June 3 and June 23.

In the past 30 days, the over has still cashed more times than the under, but in the past seven days there has been a drastic turn in results. The under has cashed 55 times (59.8 percent), and the over has cashed in only 37 times.

Top Five Over Teams (Over Listed First)

1. Minnesota Twins (16-2-1) The Twins can't be blamed for the fact that most games have stayed under in the past week. Minnesota has seen six straight games go over the total, and they have been an absolute over machine in the past three weeks. The offense was never as bad as it looked early in the year, and the pitching staff is a complete disaster. I wouldn't want to buck this trend. It would be over or nothing for me in Minnesota games in the near future.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (15-5) How does a team with an offense as bad as the Philadelphia Phillies have 15 out of 20 games go over the total? In the past 14 days, no team in the majors has a worse overall team ERA. The Phillies have a ridiculously-high 6.64 ERA in the past two weeks. Aaron Nola was great to start the year, and the wheels have totally fallen off for him in his last three starts. The bullpen is gassed. And they weren't good to start with, either.

3. Washington Nationals (12-6-1) The Washington Nationals have lost five straight games. Their trip to the West Coast didn't turn out well. Washington's bullpen has been hurt by the loss of Papelbon, and the team needs more innings out of their starters. Washington is still a very good team, and the Nationals should right the ship soon. They finish the road trip in Milwaukee this weekend and then come home for 10 straight games.

4. Los Angeles Angels (11-7-2) After a terrible start to the season, the Angels offense has been pretty good for the past month. Mike Trout still looks like the best hitter in baseball, and he is getting a little more help from guys like Calhoun and Cron. The Angels bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, though, and that is another key reason for their games soaring over the total so frequently.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (12-8) Expectations were high in Pittsburgh this year, and the Pirates have totally fallen apart in the last few weeks. Pittsburgh actually ranks dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the past two weeks, but their pitching staff has been so bad that they continue to see a lot of games go over the posted total. It's looking like the Pirates will be sellers at the trade deadline.

Top Five Under Teams (Under Listed First)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (14-5) The Los Angeles Dodgers offense shouldn't be this bad. They have too much talent to be struggling the way they have so far this year. Corey Seager has a .289 batting average, but no other regular in the lineup has an average above .267. I have to think that Adrian Gonzalez will eventually get it going. The one saving grace for the Dodgers has been their ability to win one-run games of late.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks (13-6) The Arizona pitching staff has been much better of late. After a really bad start, Arizona has the 10th-best ERA in the majors in the past 30 days. The Diamondbacks have been great on the road this year. Now, they have to figure out a way to win some games at home. Is Shelby Miller going to be much improved like he was in his last outing? He is a big key for this team moving forward.

3. Cleveland Indians (12-5) Cleveland's pitching staff is tremendous. Corey Kluber won the American League Cy Young award two years ago, and he has the worst ERA of any Cleveland starter so far this year at just 3.59. Trevor Bauer's emergence makes this rotation the best in the majors. No one is going to want to play the Indians in the postseason if they make it there. This team is dangerous.

4. Atlanta Braves (12-7) Atlanta's offense is terrible. The Braves are bad offensively against everyone, but they are especially bad against left-handed pitching. Julio Teheran has been a major bright spot for the Braves so far this season. I would continue to look to play the under with Atlanta, especially when they are facing a lefty.

5. Chicago Cubs (12-7) The Chicago Cubs offense has hit the skids a bit lately. Dexter Fowler's injury has slowed the team down, and now Anthony Rizzo is banged up and missing some time. The Cubs offense will be fine in the long run, though, and no team is going to go the whole season without going through some offensive slumps. Let's see how quick the oddsmakers are to adjust the Cubs totals in the coming weeks.

Read more articles by

Most Recent Baseball Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers