MLB Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Over and Under Teams for Baseball Wagering 5/20/2016

by Aaron Smith - 5/20/2016

New York Mets Starting pitcher Matt Harvey

The Chicago Cubs still have the best record in baseball. They are coming off a disappointing series in Milwaukee, and I'm interested to see how the Cubs fare this weekend in San Francisco. The Giants are the hottest team in baseball. San Francisco has won eight straight games. The Giants just went on a 7-0 road trip against NL West foes. The Cubs have the pitching matchup advantages in the first couple games of the series. Can the Cubs stop the Giants momentum? This is the series to watch this weekend.

The 'over' is sitting at 51.48 percent on the year for the league as a whole. In the past 30 days, the over has hit at a clip of 54 percent.

Doc's Sports has done an MLB Totals Trends report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this season. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' teams and the Top Five 'Under' teams in each article. Throughout the course of the long season, it can be very profitable to catch a team that is streaking in one direction or the other. This report will be offered on a bi-weekly basis throughout the Major League Baseball regular season. The numbers listed are for games played between May 6 and May 19.

Top Five Over Teams (Over Listed First)

1. Texas Rangers (9-3) The Texas Rangers have been in the news a lot lately. It hasn't really been about their recent over run for totals bettors at most places, but that's why we are talking about them today! Texas has been an over machine at home so far this year. The Rangers bullpen is second worst in the majors in ERA. Texas has gotten less strikeouts from its pitching staff than any other team in baseball. That will change when Yu Darvish makes his return in the next week. That could be a big catalyst for this team.

2. Baltimore Orioles (9-3) The Orioles started the season out as a hot under team, but things have gone the other way of late. This Orioles offense is stacked with power hitters, and I expect this team to score a lot of runs this year. The bullpen is good, but the Baltimore starting rotation is among the worst in baseball. For the year as a whole, I expect this to be a good over team.

3. Boston Red Sox (9-3-1) The Boston Red Sox are tearing the cover off the baseball. The recent offensive production out of them has been truly historic. In their recent homestand against Oakland and Houston, Boston scored at least six runs in every game. They also scored 11 runs or more in four straight contests. They come home again now for a series with Cleveland and then Colorado. The posted totals are going to rise quickly for this team.

4. Cleveland Indians (9-3-1) One of the biggest reasons the Indians are on this side of the report is their disposal of the Cincinnati Reds this week. The Reds bullpen is the worst I've seen in the major leagues in many years, and Cleveland's offense took full advantage of that unit. The Indians scored 43 runs in the four-game series with the Reds. Now it is time to see if the offense can be productive against the rest of the league.

5. Oakland Athletics (9-4) The Oakland offense has been slightly better than I expected so far this season, but they suffered a big blow last night. Josh Reddick fractured his thumb, and he'll be out until at least late June. Reddick has a .322 average and was playing some of the best baseball of his career. Oakland is already without Mark Canha and Josh Phegley. I expect this offense to struggle in the coming weeks.

Top Five Under Teams (Under Listed First)

1. San Francisco Giants (11-2) Ironically, the San Francisco Giants topped the over side of this report last time around. What was their record to the over that time? It was 11-2. This time around, they are 11-2 to the under. None of the Giants regular players have an average over .300 on the season thus far. San Francisco hasn't gotten the production expected out of Buster Posey so far this year, but that should come with time. While the offense has been sputtering, the pitching staff has been shutting teams down. How good have the Giants been? They haven't given up more than four runs in a game since May 5!

2. San Diego Padres (9-4) It should come as no surprise to see this team here. San Diego's offense is just awful. There's no one in that lineup that scares anyone. The Padres are dead last in the majors with a team batting average of .226. The under is 13-7 in the Padres first 20 home games. The oddsmakers set the totals low at PetCo Park, but I would still look to go under in San Diego's home games until they prove they can score some runs.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (9-4) The Padres didn't surprise me a bit, but I am surprised to see the Brewers in this spot. Milwaukee still has a 23-16-2 record toward the over for the year, but recently the oddsmakers have finally started setting the numbers a little too high. Milwaukee is still a team I'd be cautious to play too many unders with. This bullpen is very bad, and the Brewers starting rotation isn't much better.

4. New York Mets (9-4) The New York Mets offense has been extremely streaky so far this season. The Mets couldn't hit anything at the start of the season. They then went on a run where they were knocking the cover off the ball. Recently, they have gone back into a major slump offensively. The thing that remains though is the Mets pitching staff is tremendous. Even with Matt Harvey having pitched terribly, the Mets rank third in all of baseball in team ERA.

5. Colorado Rockies (8-4) Colorado isn't a team I'd expect to see here, either, but a closer look at this team reveals that there is a big change from last year's team. This Rockies bullpen is much more formidable this season. That makes a big difference when it comes to totals. Additionally, the Rockies offense is a little less powerful than it was in the past. Colorado is in the middle of a 10-game road trip right now. It finishes in Boston, where there could be some major offensive fireworks.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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