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MLB Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Baseball Wagers

by Victor Ryan - 5/17/2016

Jose Bautista Toronto Blue Jays

This week's look at the hottest and coldest bets in baseball has a decided northeast flavor. Both New York clubs are featured, albeit at opposite ends of the spectrum, while a massive week by the hard-hitting Red Sox turned them into the most profitable bet in baseball over the last seven days. Let's get started.

Hottest MLB Bets (season to date)

Philadelphia Phillies (22-17, +11.0 Units)

Chicago Cubs (27-9, +10.8 Units)

Chicago White Sox (24-14, +10.6 Units)

Baltimore Orioles (23-13, +9.9 Units)

Texas Rangers (22-17, +8.3 Units)

Hottest MLB Bets (5/9 through 5/16)

Boston Red Sox (6-1, +4.8 Units)

San Francisco Giants (5-2, +3.3 Units)

Baltimore Orioles (5-1, +3.3 Units)

St. Louis Cardinals (4-2, +2.1 Units)

New York Yankees (5-3, +2.0 Units)

The Red Sox swept three against the A's to start the week and then took three of four from Houston, all at home. All seven games went "over" the posted total. Boston averaged an incredible 10.4 runs per game during the homestand and is now on pace to score 976 runs for the season, which would rank among the highest totals in the modern era.

Next up for the Red Sox is three games on the road against Kansas City followed by three at home against Cleveland.

The Giants emerged from a momentary rough patch by winning five straight to move atop the NL West. The streak included a four-game sweep of the Diamondbacks in Arizona. The catalyst in San Francisco has been its superb pitching. The Giants posted a league-low 2.42 ERA last week, which was helped by a much-needed strong performance from the previously-struggling Jake Peavy.

Next up for the Giants is a three-game set in San Diego followed by three at home against the Cubs.

The Orioles had another strong week, keeping them in a tie atop the AL East with the Red Sox. Baltimore had reeled off seven straight wins before finally losing to the Tigers on Sunday. The Orioles power-packed lineup has lived up to expectations, but it's been the solid starting pitching--that was a major concern entering the season--that's kept them in the AL East race. Will the rotation hold up? That's the question facing bettors moving forward.

Next up for Baltimore is three at home against Seattle followed by a trip for three against the Angels.

The Cardinals used a three-game sweep of the Angels to land in this week's top five. The bats woke up for St. Louis. Led by Matt Carpenter (.306 in May), the Red Birds were second in the NL last week in both team batting average (.287) and runs scored (37). The Cardinals are already eight games back of the Cubs in the NL Central but right in the thick of the NL wild-card race.

Next up for St. Louis are three games against Colorado and three against Arizona, all at home.

Coldest MLB Bets (season to date)

Minnesota Twins (10-27, -16.3 Units)

Atlanta Braves (9-28, -13.6 Units)

Houston Astros (15-24, -13.5 Units)

Toronto Blue Jays (19-21, -6.9 Units)

New York Yankees (16-21, -6.9 Units)

Coldest MLB Bets (5/9 through 5/16)

New York Mets (2-5, -3.7 Units)

Tampa Bay Rays (2-5, -3.7 Units)

Cleveland Indians (3-4, -2.6 Units)

Toronto Blue Jays (3-4, -2.3 Units)

Atlanta Braves (2-5, -2.3 Units)

The Mets split a four-game set with the Dodgers and then dropped all three in Colorado to fall out of first place in the NL East. New York had an NL-low .221 batting average last week while the pitching staff posted a 4.45 ERA, which ranked 12th in the NL. Here's an interesting stat from ESPN: The Mets are 18-3 when scoring four or more runs and 3-13 when scoring three runs or fewer.

Next up for New York is its first series of the year against the division-rival Nationals in Washington followed by three against Milwaukee.

The Rays lost all three in Seattle and then split a four-game set with Oakland last week. Tampa Bay has struggled to score runs due largely to being among the league's worst teams with runners in scoring position. To add injury to insult, the Rays lost leading hitter Logan Forsythe (.308 BA) for possibly up to a month because of injury.

Next up for the Tampa Bay is three games in Toronto followed by three in Detroit.

The Indians struggled last week despite playing two of the worst clubs in baseball (Minnesota, Houston). Cleveland also suffered a big injury as top offensive threat Michael Brantley went back on the DL with a shoulder injury. The Indians rank in the middle of the pack both offensively and on the mound, but drop a couple games as a heavy favorite as they did last week and this is where you land.

The Blue Jays come into the week having lost three straight and four of their last five in a stretch that saw their best hitter also get punched in the face. The starting staff had been outstanding in May but finally regressed to the mean in the past seven days. Toronto also posted the AL's worst team BA (.255) while scoring the fewest runs (29) last week.

Next up for the Blue Jays are three games at home against Tampa Bay followed by three in Minnesota.

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