Five to Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, June 23, 2016, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 6/22/2016

Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen

Tuesday was another rough day for the injury-ravaged Mets -- although it could have been worse. First, current starting pitcher Bartolo Colon, my pick for the "Most Interesting Man in Baseball," had to leave his start against the Royals very early after taking a comebacker off his pitching hand. The good news was that X-rays were negative, but he might still miss a start. The not-so-great news was the Mets announcing that former very promising starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, a potential trade chip, had been shut down from his Tommy John surgery rehab due to discomfort in his right elbow. Wheeler was to see a doctor on Wednesday. He was almost ready to head out on a minor-league rehab assignment and rejoin the Mets at some point next month. That seems unlikely now. Wheeler was 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA in 2014, his only full MLB season.

Giants at Pirates (-110, 8.5)

First game of the day with a 12:35 p.m. ET start time and will have live betting at sportsbooks with it televised by the MLB Network. I expect San Francisco to rest a starter or two as this is the end of a seven-game road trip in the Eastern Time Zone. The Giants go with Albert Suarez (2-1, 3.69). This will be his fourth start of the season in place of the injured Matt Cain. Suarez has been solid in relief this year but has a 4.50 ERA as a starter. He was tagged for three solo homers in 4.2 innings last time out against Tampa Bay. Suarez has never faced the Pirates. They start lefty Jon Niese (6-4, 4.74). He's regressing a bit, having allowed 12 runs and 17 hits over 10.2 innings of his past two starts, both losses. Last year while with the Mets, Niese was 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Giants. Brandon Crawford is 5-for-12 off him with a homer and five RBIs. Buster Posey is 8-for-25 with two doubles and a dinger.

Key trends: The Giants are 6-1 in their past seven road games vs. a lefty. The Pirates are 0-5 in their past five at home vs. a righty. The "over/under" is 9-2 in Pittsburgh's past 11 vs. a right-hander.

Early lean: Giants and over.

White Sox at Red Sox (-212, 10)

A 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch from Fenway. I don't even know what to say about James Shields (2-9, 6.28) at this point. What an utter bust he has been in three starts with the White Sox since coming over from San Diego. Shields allowed 22 runs in his first three starts with the Pale Hose, two shy of the live ball era record set by Sam Page in 1939 with the Athletics. Including his last game with the Padres, Shields is the first pitcher to give up seven-plus runs in four straight starts since Albie Lopez of the Rays in 2001. Shields has faced 62 hitters over 8 2/3 innings with the White Sox and has pitched in five innings where he has faced seven hitters or more. And now Shields has to face the best offensive team in baseball. Yikes. David Ortiz is a career .300 hitter off him with three homers and 16 RBIs in 60 at-bats. Hanley Ramirez is 9-for-34 with a homer and eight strikeouts. The Red Sox, who were also talking to the Padres about a potential Shields trade, go with Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.76). He beat Seattle on Saturday, allowing two runs in six innings. Porcello is 10-8 with a 4.09 ERA in his career against Chicago. Melky Cabrera is 14-for-25 off him with four doubles and a homer.

Key trends: The Red Sox are 6-0 in Porcello's past six at home. The over is 4-1 in his past five overall.

Early lean: Red Sox and over -- think this is first double-digit total of year for a non-Colorado home game.

Cubs at Marlins (+160, 7.5)

This also will be televised by the MLB Network as these teams meet for the first time all season. Chicago goes with Jon Lester (9-3, 2.06), who is closing in on his win total for the entire 2015 season with the Cubs and his first in the National League. The Cubs have won his past five outings and the lefty has allowed only five combined earned runs. Lester was roughed up by the Marlins last year in his lone start against them. Martin Prado is 6-for-10 off him with three doubles. Giancarlo Stanton has a homer off him in three at-bats. The Marlins start lefty Wei-Yen Chen (4-2, 5.22), who has largely been a free-agent bust. He was blasted for a season-high six runs in a career-low 2.1 innings last time out against the Rockies but did avoid the loss. Only a few Cubs have faced him. Ben Zobrist hits .375 off Chen in 40 at-bats. David Ross, who is Lester's personal catcher, is 4-for-15 off him with three RBIs.

Key trends: The Cubs are 5-1 in Lester's past six on the road. The Marlins are 5-0 in Chen's past five at home. The under is 6-2-2 in Lester's past 10 on the road vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Cubs and under.

Diamondbacks at Rockies (+155, 10.5)

The Snakes are 3-6 against Colorado this season but 2-1 at Coors Field. Arizona goes with ace Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.54). He won a seventh straight start Saturday in Philadelphia, allowing one run and three hits over eight innings. Before this winning streak, Greinke had an ERA of 5.26. Now he might be an All-Star. He is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA in two starts this year against Colorado. Nolan Arenado only hits .207 against him in 29 at-bats. Carlos Gonzalez, on the other hand, is 12-for-31 with four homers off Greinke. The Rockies go with Eddie Butler most likely . They need a starter here because ace Tyler Chatwood went on the DL Sunday. Butler (2-4, 6.26) was recently demoted to long relief. He allowed six runs in 3.1 innings in his last outing Saturday vs. Miami. That was the game Chatwood left injured. Butler hasn't faced Arizona this year.

Key trends: The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Greinke's past six on the road. The Rockies are 1-6 in Butler's past seven vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in Greinke's past four.

Early lean: Diamondbacks and under.

A's at Angels (-143, 8.5)

Maybe the Angels can turn around and trade Tim Lincecum (1-0, 1.50)? I'm sure they won't. But the Halos aren't going anywhere. And what if Lincecum continues to pitch well? He made his Angels and season debut on Saturday in Oakland and allowed one run and four hits over six innings. He retired 10 of his last 11 batters. Lincecum doesn't throw very hard these days, so he threw his signature split-changeup 38.8 percent of the time in the game, his highest changeup usage rate in a start since 2009. Oakland's Yonder Alonso is 3-for-25 career off Lincecum. Khris Davis is 3-for-15 with two homers. Oakland goes with Kendall Graveman (2-6, 4.87). He took a no-decision on Friday against the Angels, allowing one run and three hits over seven innings. Mike Trout is 2-for-12 off him. Albert Pujols is 5-for-10 with a homer.

Key trends: The A's are 1-5 in Graveman's past six on the road. The Angels are 0-5 in their past five series openers. The under is 5-2 in Graveman's past seven.

Early lean: Angels and under.

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