Five to Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, April 30, 2016, Opening Line Report

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, April 30, 2016, Opening Line Report

by Alan Matthews - 4/29/2016

Does Major League Baseball have a performance-enhancing drug problem again? Last week, Blue Jays first baseman Chris Colabello was hit with an 80-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs. Then on Thursday, Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, the reigning NL batting and stolen base champion, also was hit with an 80-game ban. He didn't only test positive for one banned substance but two. Of course, Gordon said he did not knowingly take PEDs. Ha ha. Maybe he got them from the team's hitting coach Barry Bonds? Sorry, couldn't resist. Gordon is batting .266 with six stolen bases this season. I give the Marlins little chance of being a wild-card team now, not that I gave them a huge one before this. Too bad as Miami just impressively swept a four-game series at the Los Angeles Dodgers to approach .500 after a terrible start.

Tigers at Twins (+110, 8.5)

First pitch of Saturday at 2:10 p.m. ET. Been a rough week for the Twins, sending top prospect Byron Buxton to Triple-A and then starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson to the disabled list. They will have their work cut out against them here vs. Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann (4-0, 0.35), the MLB leader in ERA. His season-opening scoreless streak ended at 24 1/3 innings on Monday against the A's -- the longest ever for a pitcher at the start of his Tigers career -- but he allowed just one run in 6.2 innings. Only a couple of Twins have ever faced the former National Leaguer. It's Tyler Duffey for Minnesota. He made his season debut Sunday in Washington and allowed one run and five hits over four innings. Duffey was hit in the shoulder by a line drive but is expected to go here. Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is 2-for-5 off him. Nick Castellanos is 3-for-6 with two doubles.

Key trends: The Tigers are 1-4 in their past five Saturday games. The Twins are 8-2 in Duffey's past 10 starts. The "over/under" has gone under in four of Duffey's past five vs. the AL Central.

Early lean: Tigers and under.

Braves at Cubs (-215, TBA)

A 2:20 p.m. ET matinee from Wrigley. The Cubs are going to be down two starters but did get good MRI results on the ankle of star third baseman Kris Bryant. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year rolled his ankle in Thursday's win. An MRI confirmed a minor sprain, and he'll miss a few games. Bryant is hitting .289 with four homers and 15 RBIs. Also, catcher Miguel Montero was placed on the DL with back issues and he was to have an MRI. The Cubs might have to trade for a catcher if that's a longer-term thing with Kyle Schwarber already out for the year. Chicago starts John Lackey (3-1, 4.97) here. He has been inconsistent thus far and was rocked for six runs and seven hits over 5.2 innings last time out in Cincinnati. He is 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA in three career starts against the Braves. Nick Markakis is a career .338 hitter off him in 68 at-bats. Atlanta starts Julio Teheran (0-3, 4.60), a guy often linked in trade rumors to the Cubs. After a shaky start to the season, Teheran has been much better his past two starts. Anthony Rizzo is 2-for-13 off him with a homer.

Key trends: The Braves are 1-8 in Teheran's past nine road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 12-2-2 in his past 16 on the road. Atlanta is 5-0 in his past five vs. the Cubs.

Early lean: Braves -- Cubs are missing some bats and Lackey hasn't been trustworthy yet.

Blue Jays at Rays (-128, 7.5)

I'll be very interested to see what Rays ace Chris Archer (1-4, 5.47) looks like here. Since last Aug. 31, the All-Star had been 0-7 with a 6.39 ERA. Through his first four starts in 2016, Archer was 0-4 with a 7.32 ERA and 2.09 WHIP and batters were hitting .345 off him. Really shocking numbers because it's not like Archer's stuff still wasn't excellent. The Rays had to be relieved when Archer dominated the Orioles on Monday, shutting them out on five hits over 6.2 innings and striking out 10. Archer pitched Opening Day at home vs. Toronto and struck out 12 in five innings but took the loss in allowing three runs in five innings. Jose Bautista is 5-for-34 career off him with a homer. Edwin Encarnacion is 6-for-39 off him but has three homers. It's lefty J.A. Happ (3-0, 2.42) for the Jays. He pitched April 6 at Tampa Bay and allowed two runs and seven hits over six innings. He is 1-1 with a 6.46 ERA in six starts at Tropicana Field. Evan Longoria is 8-for-21 with two doubles off him. Steve Pearce has three homers in 22 at-bats.

Key trends: The Rays are 0-4 in Archer's past four following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 5-0 in Happ's past five on the road. The under is 3-1-1 in Archer's past five at home.

Early lean: Blue Jays and under.

White Sox at Orioles (-115, 8.5)

If the Pale Hose have a lead in the bottom of the ninth here, Nate Jones likely will on the mound as closer David Robertson has been placed on the bereavement list after the death of his father-in-law. Robertson leads the AL with eight saves. He has an 0.87 ERA with 13 strikeouts and a .152 opponents' batting average. The Sox start ace Mat Latos here. Yes, I said ace. Obviously Chris Sale is the ace, but Latos (4-0, 0.74) has been ridiculous. He has gone at least six innings in all four starts and allowed just one earned run in two of those. Pedro Alvarez has faced him by far the most of any Oriole and is 8-for-29 with two homers and six RBIs. Baltimore's Kevin Gausman (0-1, 1.80) started the year in the minors to rehab his shoulder and was solid in his season debut for the Orioles on Monday, allowing one run and three hits at Tampa Bay. The Sox's Austin Jackson is 2-for-5 with two doubles off him.

Key trends: The Orioles are 5-2 in Gausman's past seven at home. The over is 10-3-3 in Chicago's past 10 on Saturday.

Early lean: Orioles and over -- Latos' success isn't sustainable.

Rockies at Diamondbacks (-175, 8.5)

Colorado demoted struggling starter Jordan Lyles earlier this week, so lefty Chris Rusin (1-0, 2.45) comes in from the bullpen to start here. He has allowed three runs and six hits, no homers, over 11 innings in four appearances this year. He was largely a starter in 131.2 innings last year and was 6-10 with a 5.33 ERA. Rusin lost his only start vs. Arizona, allowing three runs (one earned) in six innings. David Peralta is 2-for-3 with a double and two RBIs off him. Paul Goldschmidt has two singles in five at-bats. Just when it looked like Arizona's Zack Greinke (2-2, 6.16) had put his early-season struggles behind him, he was raked for seven runs and 11 hits in 6.2 innings last time out vs. St. Louis yet won the game. His Diamondbacks debut on April 4, he allowed seven runs and nine hits over four innings vs. the Rockies, with rookie Trevor Story homering twice off him. Greinke has a 9.72 ERA in three home starts and 1.93 on the road.

Key trends: The Rockies are 1-10 in Rusin's past 11 road starts. Arizona is 1-4 in its past five at home vs. a lefty. The over is 4-1 in Rusin's past five vs. the NL West.

Early lean: Diamondbacks and over.

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