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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Friday, May 20, 2016, Opening Line Report

by - 5/19/2016

Ryan Braun Milwaukee Brewers

The Texas Rangers are the latest team to make a change at closer as struggling Shawn Tolleson has been replaced by Sam Dyson. Tolleson suffered his fourth blown save Tuesday, and third in the past five appearances, allowing a walk-off grand slam to Oakland's Khris Davis with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Tolleson had 35 saves in 37 chances last season. He has 11 saves in 15 chances this season. In 2015, opponents hit .239 with a .388 slugging percentage against Tolleson. They are up to .343 with a .642 slugging percentage this season. He's 0-2 with a 9.20 ERA so this is a no-brainer move. Dyson is 0-1 with two saves and a 1.89 ERA.

Rays at Tigers (+100, 8.5)

Tampa Bay has a ton of good young pitching, and it called up 26-year-old Matt Andriese earlier this month. Wise decision as Andriese (2-0, 0.56) has been great. On Saturday, he threw a complete-game two-hitter vs. Oakland. He got first-pitch strikes on 21 of 29 batters. Last year, Andriese was 3-5 with two saves and a 4.11 ERA in 65.2 innings for the Rays. He pitched one inning of relief vs. Detroit and allowed a run on two hits. The Tigers go with Anibal Sanchez (3-4, 5.91). They have lost his past three and Sanchez has allowed four earned runs in each of them. He is prone to allowing homers and has given up eight in eight starts. Sanchez lost his lone 2015 start vs. the Rays, allowing three runs in 5.1 innings. Evan Longoria is 4-for-13 off him with a double and triple.

Key trends: The Rays are 5-0 in Andriese's past five vs. teams with a losing record. Tampa is 1-7 in its past eight on Friday. The Tigers are 9-1 in Sanchez's past 10 at home. The "over/under" is 4-0-1 in his past five series openers.

Early lean: Tigers and over.

Brewers at Mets (-200, 7.5)

Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell has admitted publicly that he's pondering whether to pull struggling Opening Day starter Wily Peralta (2-4, 7.30) for the rotation, but for now Peralta stays. Frankly it's because both Taylor Jungmann and Jorge Lopez are struggling at Triple-A so it's rather pointless to bring one of them up for Peralta. He took a no-decision in his last start despite allowing six runs and eight hits over 4.2 innings vs. the Padres. Peralta has only two quality starts all year. He allowed five runs in five innings last year in his lone outing vs. the Mets. Curtis Granderson is 5-for-8 with two doubles and two solo homers off him. New York's Steven Matz (5-1, 2.86) got the go-ahead from the doctor on Monday to return to the rotation. He missed his last start due to left forearm soreness and his velocity has been down this year. Matz held the Dodgers to two runs in six innings last time out on May 9. He has never faced Milwaukee.

Key trends: The Brewers are 5-12 in Peralta's past 17 vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 4-1 in Matz's past five series openers. The over is 10-2 in Peralta's past 12. The over is 4-0 in Matz's past four at home.

Early lean: Mets and over.

Rangers at Astros (-135, 9)

One thing I don't like about MLB suspensions and then subsequent appeals: You never know when appeals will be heard. Shouldn't those dates be made public? MLB has 14 days to schedule an appeal hearing, which can be held in person or by video conferencing. Texas second baseman Rougned Odor has been suspended eight games for his right cross to the jaw of Toronto's Jose Bautista on Sunday. Naturally, Odor is appealing. So maybe he plays this entire series or maybe not. The Rangers start Colby Lewis (2-0, 3.12) here. He is working on a string of five straight quality starts and has gone exactly seven in his past four. Lewis was 4-0 with a 4.15 ERA in five starts against the Astros last year. Jose Altuve is 7-for-27 off him. Carlos Correa is 4-for-9 with two homers. Houston goes with Lance McCullers (0-0, 9.64). He made his season debut off a DL stint last Friday in Boston and allowed five runs over 4.2 innings. McCullers went 0-2 with a 12.79 ERA in his two starts last year against Texas. Mitch Moreland is 2-for-4 with a homer and four RBIs against him.

Key trends: The Rangers are 6-0 in Lewis' past six in Houston. The over is 5-0 in his past five against the Astros.

Early lean: Rangers and over.

Yankees at A's (-145, 8)

While New York got some bad news on an Alex Rodriguez setback early this week with his hamstring issue, big lefty CC Sabathia apparently is good to return from his left groin strain and be activated off the DL to make this start. He threw a simulated game Sunday and emerged fine from it. It was important for him to start here because he grew up in nearby Vallejo. "My mom is happy," he said. Sabathia (2-2, 3.81) perhaps can build off his best start of the season, which was May 4 in Baltimore when he shut out the Orioles on six hits over seven innings. He had allowed three earned runs in every other start this season. Sabathia was 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts last year against Oakland. Billy Butler has faced him the most, going 11-for-41 with a homer. Coco Crisp is 6-for-24 with two solo homers. It's Sonny Gray (3-4, 5.84) for Oakland, and he has struggled the past four starts. He was tagged for six runs in 5.2 innings last time out in Tampa Bay but avoided a loss. Gray was 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts last year vs. the Yankees. Chase Headley is 0-for-7 against him. Brian McCann is 2-for-8 with a homer and two RBIs.

Key trends: The Yankees are 2-5 in their past seven Friday games. The A's are 7-1 in their past eight on the day. The under is 3-0-1 in Sabathia's past four. The Yankees are 2-12 in their past 14 in Oakland.

Early lean: A's and under.

Cubs at Giants (+185, 6.5)

Potential playoff preview? The Cubs will certainly be playing October baseball, and the Giants lead the NL West. It's ace Jake Arrieta (7-0, 1.29) for the Cubs as he looks to keep his ridiculous unbeaten streak alive. Last time out, he allowed two runs and three hits in eight innings against Pittsburgh, striking out a season-high 11. Six of those strikeouts were called, tying the most Arrieta has had as a member of the Cubs. Arrieta has won 18 straight decisions. the fifth-longest streak in baseball's modern era. Last year, Arrieta was 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 13.2 innings against the Giants. He allowed just eight hits. Buster Posey is 1-for-9 career against him. It's Jake Peavy (1-4, 7.43) for the Giants, and he might have saved his rotation spot Saturday in Arizona, allowing one run and three hits over six innings in easily his best start of 2016. Alas, the bullpen blew his chance at a win. Peavy was 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA last year vs. the Cubs. Ben Zobrist is 5-for-19 with two doubles and two homers against him. Kris Bryant is 3-for-4 with a double.

Key trends: The Cubs are 22-5 in Arrieta's past 27 road starts. The Giants are 10-2 in Peavy's past 12 at home. The under is 10-1 in the Giants' past 11 games.

Early lean: Cubs and under.

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