MLB Betting Advice and Handicapping: Best and Worst Profit Starting Pitchers 7/1/2016

by Victor Ryan - 7/1/2016

Cleveland Indians Starting pitcher Josh Tomlin

As the calendar flips to July, it's time for Doc's Sports monthly report on the most profitable starting pitchers in MLB as well as those hurlers that have been the biggest money pits for bettors. Some of the value may have already been wagered out of these players but there are some that should hold betting value all season long.

Most Profitable Pitchers in MLB

Pitcher (Starts) Team Record Profits ERA

Chris Tillman (16)	(14-2)	+12.9 Units	3.52
Johnny Cueto (16)	(14-2)	+11.3 Units	2.42
Stephen Strasburg (14)	(13-1)	+11.2 Units	2.9
Josh Tomlin (14)	(12.2)	+10.3 Units	3.32
Michael Fulmer (11)	(9-2)	+8.7 Units	2.4
Doug Fister (15)	(11-4)	+8.6 Units	3.36
Clayton Kershaw (16)	(14-2)	+8.5 Units	1.79
Chris Sale (16 )	(13-3)	+8.4 Units	2.79
Junior Guerra (11)	(9-2)	+8.4 Units	3.25
Cole Hamels (16)	(12-4)	+7.9 Units	2.6

Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles

This is the second straight month the veteran right-hander has held the position as the best bet in baseball. Tillman's had solid run support (4.82 RPG) from the hard-hitting O's, and, though never dominant, he tends to go deep into games. That's the good news. The bad news is his ERA has risen a full point just since mid-May, and he's coming off two of the worst starts of the season. It could be time to start fading baseball's most profitable pitcher.

Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers

The 23-year-old right hander has taken Detroit by storm since being called up in late April. In his last seven starts, Fulmer has given up just three earned runs in a combined 44 1/3 IP. That's getting it done.

Fullmer does a good job of getting in on hitters hands with a "heavy" 95 MPH fastball, but his best pitch is a changeup that he has begun to use more frequently.

Yes, Fulmer has been getting excellent run support (5.36 RPG). But the eye-test and peripheral numbers indicate this kid is the real deal. Fulmer is still largely an unknown among the general public, which makes him one worth continuing to support at likely fair odds.

Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers

This is perhaps the biggest surprise on the list. The 31-year-old right-hander, who didn't even sniff the bigs until last year, is coming off his best performance of the season: eight shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Dodgers on Wednesday.

Reports indicate it has been the development of an excellent splitter that's been the catalyst for Guerra's emergence. It's resulted in Guerra posting a quality start in eight of his 11 outings this season. The question is, can this run continue? Will big-league hitters adjust the second time they see Guerra? It may be wise to watch more of this long-time journeyman before taking the plunge.

Least-Profitable Pitchers in MLB

Pitcher (Starts) Team Record Losses ERA

Matt Harvey (16)	(5-11)	-10.9 Units	4.55
Ervin Santana (14)	(12-2)	-10.1 Units	4.64
Gio Gonzalez (15)	(5-10)	-8.2 Units	4.73
Luis Severino (7)	(0-7)	-8.0 Units	7.46
Chris Archer (17)	(5-12)	-7.9 Units	4.76
James Shields (16)	(4-12)	-7.7 Units	5.85
Dallas Keuchel (17)	(7-10)	-7.5 Units	5.22
Matt Shoemaker (15)	(4-11)	-7.5 Units	4.12
Robbie Ray (16)	(5-11)	-7.3 Units	4.59
Brandon Finnegan (16)	(4-12)	-7.1 Units	3.83

Matt Harvey, New York Mets

The "Dark Knight" hasn't been nearly the same pitcher as year's past. Add to that the dismal run support (2.44 RPG) of the Mets and you get the worst bet in baseball among starting pitchers.

There is reason for optimism, however. Harvey has been pitching better of late and reportedly had his "best stuff" of the season against the Nationals on Tuesday before his night was cut short after just 3 1/3 innings because of a rain delay.

Harvey has every right to go on a run of dominant starts given his track record. The concern is if the Mets pop-gun offense will provide enough run support.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros

Last year's AL Cy Young winner has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season. The 28-year-old southpaw was pounded the first two months of the campaign, which coincided with the struggles of the Astros as a whole. However, an excellent June has Houston back in the playoff hunt. And as the weather has warmed, so has Keuchel. He's reeled off three straight quality starts with the Astros, winning each of those outings. This is another one that could manage a tidy profit in the coming months.

Brandon Finnegan, Cincinnati Reds

The 23-year-old former first-round pick has been getting batted around pretty good of late, including on Thursday when giving up 8 ER in just 2 1/3 innings. He's now lost three consecutive starts, and his ERA has increased by almost a full run.

Finnegan certainly has the talent, but consistently getting out Major League hitters is proving a struggle at this point for the youngster. The last-place Reds figure to keep trotting this kid out as they have nothing to lose, so he may be worth fading given the expected growing pains.

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