As we inch closer to the noon deadline on Thursday, March 17, millions of people from around the world are putting the final addition on what they hope will be the perfect bracket.
From a numbers standpoint, there are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible bracket outcomes, making the odds of a perfect bracket over 9.2-quintillion-to-1. You have a better chance of winning the Powerball Lottery than picking a perfect bracket.
From a logical point of view, putting together a good (winning) bracket is luck, but a successful bracket can be attributed to an awareness of history and trends.
Everyone knows that a No.16 seed has not beaten a No.1 seed in 124 opportunities. While you may bask in the glory for all eternity if you happen to pick the team that pulls off the upset, throwing away four (or more) very important points can prove costly throughout the bracket.
The tournament format is the best in all of sports. All the speculation leading up to the NCAA Tournament is seemingly more about where teams will be seeded and whom they will play. Since seeds matter heavily, NCAA Tournament seed history is worth studying for both fans and bettors.
NCAA Tournament Seeds - By The Numbers
No. 1 seeds are a perfect 124-0 against No.16 Seeds . You can blindly pencil them in to the Round of 32 each year.
In the Round of 32, No.1 Seeds have a record of 51-12 vs. No. 8 seeds and 56-5 vs. No.9 seeds.
In the Sweet 16, the win-loss records of No.1 seeds are as follows:
No. 1 vs. No. 4 - 32-15
No. 1 vs. No. 5 - 30-7
No. 1 vs. No. 12 -19-0
No. 1 vs. No. 13 - 4-0
In the Elite 8, No.1 seeds hold win-loss records against the following teams:
No. 1 vs. No. 2 - 21-21
No. 1 vs. No. 3 - 13-8
No. 1 vs. No. 6 - 6-2
No. 1 vs. No. 7 - 4-0
No. 1 vs. No. 10- 4-0
No. 1 vs. No.11 - 3-3
There has only been one occasion where all four No.1 seeds won their region and proceeded to the Final Four. The year was 2008, and those teams were
Kansas, UCLA, UNC and Memphis.
The No. 2 seed is 117-7 against the No. 15 seed (.944).
The last No.2 seed to lose to a 15-seed was Georgetown in 2013. They were defeated by Florida Gulf Coast, who currently holds the record for deepest run in
an NCAA tourney for a No. 15 by making it to the Sweet 16.
In the Round of 32, No. 2 Seeds have a record of 53-20 vs. No. 7 seeds and 26-18 vs. No.10 seeds.
In the Round of 16, the win-loss records of No.1 seeds are as follows:
No. 2 vs. No. 3 - 23-14
No. 2 vs. No. 6 - 23-6
No. 2 vs. No. 11 -12-1
In the Elite 8, No.1 seeds hold win-loss records against the following teams:
No. 2 vs. No. 1 - 21-21
No. 2 vs. No. 4 - 2-4
No. 2 vs. No 5 - 0-3
No. 2 vs. No. 8- 2-3
No. 2 vs. No. 9- 0-1
No. 2 vs. No.12 - 1-0
For the sake of space, the rest of the records for opening round matchups for No.3 through No.8 are as follows:
The No. 3 seed is 104-20 against the No. 14 seed (.839)
The No. 4 seed is 99-25 against the No. 13 seed (.798)
The No. 5 seed is 80-44 against the No. 12 seed (.645)
The No. 6 seed is 81-43 against the No. 11 seed (.653)
The No. 7 seed is 76-48 against the No. 10 seed (.613)
The No. 8 seed is 63-61 against the No. 9 seed (.508)
The most popular upset pick in the Round of 64 is usually the game that features the 5-seed vs. the 12-seed. This year, the trends to support the upsets may continue.
While the No.5 seed holds an 80-44 record all time vs. No.12, this is the most common (popular) upset pick on the board in the first round. Winning straight up not only gives bettors a chance to make some serious money, but it also allows point-spread players to grab the points without any hesitation. Up until last season, when the No.12 seeds lost all four games, they were a promising bet in the first round.
Like I said, if you want to win a March Madness pool, you will have to rely on luck and trends that back you up. What makes a bracket stand out is the Cinderella school that you picked to reach the Elite Eight or Final Four. This is usually make-or-break, but if it makes you, you will reap the benefits of that great selection.
A Cinderella team is usually a lower-seeded mid-major school that plays in a smaller non-power-5 conference. A recent example of this is Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 (honorable mention UCLA last year as an 11-seed). They were playing in their first-ever NCAA Tournament and won two games before ultimately falling short in the Sweet 16. Normally "Cinderella's" are well-coached, can spread the floor well and are solid rebounding teams.
Having said that, I will be looking to back Chattanooga, Buffalo, Iona and Fresno State No.12, No.13 and No.14 seeds, respectively.
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