March Madness Betting Strategies: Reseeding the Bracket

by Chris Vasile - 3/15/2016

There are 347 Division I teams that make up the college basketball landscape. All of them have aspirations of reaching the NCAA Tournament come mid-March. However, after four months of grueling competition, only 68 teams get the ultimate chance to compete for a national title.

No matter how much blood, sweat and tears are left on the court by players, the NCAA Selection Committee is usually held responsible for all tournament field shortcomings. Most fans and coaches have no idea the criteria this committee works off of, as it seems to change each year. That does not stop coaches and most certainly fans from criticizing the committee if their teams are given anything short of a clear path to the title game.

I don't envy those individuals who are on this committee. Sure, they make lots of money ultimately watching basketball for a living and screwing around with fan bases. However, at the end of the day, these are human beings and they make mistakes. They are criticized constantly. They are the only people in any sport who draw the ire of fans, coaches, players and analysts without even setting foot on a basketball court.

For the committee, the start of the process seems like a piece of cake. The four best teams are usually the No. 1 seeds. The worst four teams are playing in the play-in games. Well, that used to be the case until this year. Vanderbilt vs. Wichita State is worthy of a second-round or possibly even Sweet-16 matchup, but I digress.

After the first four and last four are set, they must juggle teams to avoid regular-season rematches and potential conference showdowns in the second round all while taking major consideration to the location of the game. This means that teams are rarely assigned their true seed.

For my March Madness brackets strategy, I like to pretend I am on the selection committee but without all those restrictions. I am giving teams seeds in conjunction only with a team's RPI this year. As John Calipari said just recently in an interview, "I don't know how all this stuff works, but it is what it is. One year it's road wins, the next is wins vs. the Top 50; it's always a moving target".

With that said, here are my reseeded teams, region by region. My adjusted seed is listed first with their actual seed after the team in parentheses.

East Region
1) UNC (1)
2) Xavier (2)
3) WVU (3)
4) Kentucky (4)
5) Indiana (5)
6) Notre Dame (6)
7) Providence (9)
8) Wisconsin (7)
9) Chattanooga (12)
10) USC (8)
11) Pittsburgh (10)
12) Michigan (11)
13) Stoney Brook (13)
14) Tulsa (11)
15) SF Austin (14)
16) Weber State (15)

17) Fairleigh Dickinson (16)
18) Florida Gulf Coast (16)

This region is very tough to predict on paper. The top five teams are spot on in terms of where they should be, and UNC is the correct No.1 choice. There is only one possible championship contender here, and that is UNC. Kentucky is back for another go after losing in the Final Four last year. Nobody wants to play a top-of-their-game Indiana squad led by Yogi Ferrell. West Virginia had the third-hardest schedule in the nation, which usually bodes well for a team's mental toughness. Despite there being two play-in games, Michigan is scary when they are knocking down threes and Dunk City (Florida Gulf Coast) should be back in the tournament and putting up points in bunches against UNC.

Midwest

1) Virginia (1)
2) Utah (3)
3) Michigan State (2)
4) Purdue (5)
5) Seton Hall (6)
6) Dayton (7)
7) Iowa State (4)
8) Texas Tech (8)
9) Little Rock (12)
10) Gonzaga (11)
11) Butler (9)
12) Fresno State (14)
13) Syracuse (10)
14) Middle Tennessee (15)
15) Iona (14)
16) Hampton (16)

This is as goofy of a region as you will find. The top 10 seeds are out of whack by one or two spots. I like Purdue's matchup better with the normal seeding. I think Syracuse presents a bigger challenge than Little Rock for the Boilermakers. Michigan State should have the easiest path to the Final Four. Instead, they will more than likely have to go through a tricky, tough Dayton team in round two.

Little known Arkansas-Little Rock should not be the worst team in the region like previous editions. That title goes to Hampton this year. This region is well-balanced and has the potential for a lot of close game and upsets.

West
1) Oregon (1)
2) Oklahoma (2)
3) Texas A&M (3)
4) St. Joes (8)
5) Duke (4)
6) Baylor (5)
7) Texas (6)
8) Oregon St. (7)
9)VCU (10)
10) Yale (12)
11) UNC Wilmington (13)
12) Cincinnati (9)
13) Northern Iowa (11)
14) Green Bay (14)
15) CSU Bakersfield (15)
16) Southern U (16)

17) Holy Cross (16)

I have serious issues with this bracket. You have the A 10 champions St. Joes taking on a Cincinnati team with five less wins and no hardware to go along with that. That is rubbish. They should have been given an easier draw than Texas. There are many teams over-seed, and because of that we can get some pretty dull games. Duke at a No.5 seed is a joke because they have double-digit in losses and are seemingly seeded on name recognition alone. Texas A&M just lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game and gets a better seed than their rivals from Lexington? That is a head-scratcher. Only the top-two seeds are deserving, and anything short of an Oregon vs. Oklahoma matchup in the Elite 8 would be surprising.

South
1) Kansas (1)
2) Villanova (2)
3) Miami (FL) (3)
4) Maryland (5)
5) California (4)
6) Arizona (6)
7) South Dakota State (12)
8) Iowa (7)
9) Connecticut (9)
10) Colorado (8)
11) Wichita State (11)
12) Temple (10)
13) Vanderbilt (11)
14) Hawaii (13)
15) Buffalo (14)
16)UNC Asheville (15)
17) Austin Peay (16)

This is Kansas' bracket to lose. I cannot imagine any of these teams knocking them off on their quest for a national title. Some say California is the most talented of the bunch, but the Pac-12 was not the greatest league this season, so it remains to be seen what California is really made of. This bracket is almost exactly how it should be with the exception of the South Dakota State Jackrabbits coming it at a No.12 seed despite being two or three seeds better in my projected seeding than the other 12-seeds. They should have been shown more love.

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