Free NBA Picks: Friday, Nov. 4, 2016, Opening Line Report and Handicapping

by Alan Matthews - 11/3/2016

The NBA's Revenge Tour continues on Friday, a night after Russell Westbrook took his pent-up frustrations out on former teammate Kevin Durant in Oakland. On Friday, it will be interesting to see how New York point guard Derrick Rose is welcomed back to his hometown of Chicago. In the 2010-11 season, Rose became the youngest-ever MVP and arguably the most popular athlete in the Windy City since some Jordan guy. The Bulls were poised to be LeBron James' top challenger in the Eastern Conference for years. But we all know what happened after that with Rose's injuries. He fell out of favor with fans eventually and the front office as well because he kept talking about free agency in the summer of 2017 and cashing in even though the Bulls were already paying him an insane amount of money. So Chicago cut bait and dealt Rose to the Knicks this offseason. I actually think Rose will get a mix of cheers and boos because he was a high school legend in the city as well.

Hawks at Wizards (+1, 207)

Atlanta comes off its surprising first loss, 123-116 at home to the Lakers. Dwight Howard had 31 points and 11 rebounds and Tim Hardaway Jr. had 26 points for Atlanta. Hardaway Jr. has been a huge surprise thus far. Washington remains winless following a 113-103 home loss to Toronto on Wednesday. The Wizards got 33 points and 11 assists from John Wall but coughed it up 21 times, which led to 30 Raptors points. These teams opened the season against one another in Atlanta and the Hawks won 114-99 behind 28 points from Paul Millsap. Wall finished with only 12 points on 3-for-15 shooting. There could be some hard feelings here as the Hawks' Kent Bazemore was called for a flagrant foul on Wall, and Wall tried to go after Bazemore but was restrained.

Key trends: The Hawks are 5-2-1 against the spread in the past eight in Washington. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings there.

Early lean: Hawks and over.

Heat at Raptors (-8.5, 197)

Miami beat visiting Sacramento 108-96 in OT on Tuesday behind 25 points from Goran Dragic and 22 from Tyler Johnson. Hassan Whiteside had 14 points and 11 rebounds and tied a franchise record with a fourth straight double-double to open a season. Toronto won 113-103 in Washington on Wednesday behind 40 points from DeMar DeRozan, who is second in the NBA in scoring. DeRozan has tied Mike James' 2005 franchise record with four consecutive 30-point games. This is a rematch of the Eastern Conference semifinals, won by the Raptors in seven. Toronto has won three straight regular-season games in the series and three in a row at home.

Key trends: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past five. The over is 4-1 in the previous five meetings in Toronto.

Early lean: Raptors and over.

Hornets at Nets (+5, 205.5)

Charlotte beat Philadelphia 109-93 on Wednesday. Nicolas Batum, re-signed to a big deal this offseason, scored 17 of his 20 points in the third as the Hornets rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit. Kemba Walker led Charlotte with 22 points. Roy Hibbert missed a second straight game for the Hornets. The Nets upset the Pistons 109-101 on Wednesday and have been much more competitive than expected. Trade candidate Brook Lopez had 34 points and 11 rebounds. However, Jeremy Lin left with a strained left hamstring, so he's likely out here against his former club. Backup point guard Greivis Vasquez is already out. Charlotte swept Brooklyn 4-0 last year and has won three in a row at the Nets.

Key trends: The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 7-3 in Brooklyn's past 10 overall.

Early lean: Hornets and over.

Knicks at Bulls (-8, 204.5)

First of an ESPN doubleheader. Another new Knick/former Bull I know who will be cheered is Joakim Noah here, who left as a free agent. The team never made an effort to bring him back because it looked like Noah was pretty much done, but he was always beloved in Chicago for his hustle and was very active in the community unlike Rose. New York lost a second straight Wednesday, 118-99 at home to Houston. Rose had 16 points but was 8-for-18 from the field. Chicago suffered its first loss of the season, 107-100 in Boston on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler led Chicago with 23 points and nine rebounds. Doug McDermott sat out with a concussion, but he almost played so could here. New York won three out of four meetings last season but Chicago has won nine of the past 10 at home.

Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 4-1 in the past five in Chicago.

Early lean: Bulls and over.

Clippers at Grizzlies (+3.5, 199)

Los Angeles suffered its first loss of the year Wednesday, 85-83 at home to Oklahoma City. Just about every Clipper had an off game other than Chris Paul, who had 15 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists and six steals. Memphis improved to 3-0 at home with an 89-83 overtime win over New Orleans. James Ennis had 16 points and 10 rebounds as he continues to start with Chandler Parsons recovering from knee surgery. Guard Tony Allen, who missed the first three games of the season with a sore right knee, got his first start. Los Angeles has won four of the past five regular-season meetings but lost the lone trip to Memphis last season.

Key trends: The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings in Memphis. The under is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: Grizzlies and under.

Suns at Pelicans (-1.5, 215)

Phoenix got its first win of the year with a 118-115 overtime win over Portland on Wednesday. Eric Bledsoe made the winning 3-pointer at the buzzer. You could almost see that coming with the Blazers having played Golden State on Tuesday night. Devin Booker returned to the Suns lineup after missing one game and had 15 points. Winless New Orleans looks like the NBA's worst team despite a Top-5 talent in Anthony Davis. It lost in overtime at Memphis on Wednesday as Davis had an off night with 10 points. The Pelicans starters managed only 19 points. That's ridiculous. These teams split four meetings in 2015-16.

Key trends: The home team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The over is 6-0 in the Pelicans' past six on Friday.

Early lean: Pelicans and over.

Trail Blazers at Mavericks (-1.5, 208)

Portland lost a second straight Wednesday, 118-115 in OT at Phoenix. Damian Lillard's 27 points led the Blazers, with C.J. McCollum adding 24. It's just the team has very little outside those two. Lillard's 163 points in the season's first five games are the most ever by a Blazer to start a season. Dallas is winless after a 97-81 loss in Utah on Wednesday. Harrison Barnes led the Mavericks with 14 points, but they shot 26.9 percent behind the arc. Dirk Nowitzki returned after missing two games but had only nine points. Dallas won two of three last year and has won four in a row at home vs. Portland.

Key trends: The Blazers are 0-4 ATS in past four in Dallas. The over is 8-1 in the previous nine there.

Early lean: Mavericks and over.

Spurs at Jazz (+5.5, 186)

San Antonio was shocked at home by the Jazz 106-91 on Tuesday for its first loss of the year. Kawhi Leonard had 30 points and LaMarcus Aldridge 21, but no one else did much. The Spurs had won 10 straight at home in the series didn't lose their first home game all of last season until April 10 and finished 40-1 at the AT&T Center. Utah dominated Dallas on Wednesday behind 25 points from new addition George Hill. He has scored 18-plus points in all five games, the only Jazz player to do so.

Key trends: The Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their past eight in Utah. The under is 9-1 in the previous 10 meetings there.

Early lean: Spurs and under that tiny total.

Warriors at Lakers (+11, 227)

Second of the ESPN doubleheader and a potential major letdown game for the Warriors off the heated showdown Thursday with Westbrook's Thunder. This is Golden State's first matchup against former assistant and interim head coach Luke Walton, who led the team to a 39-4 mark to open last season. The Lakers ended a three-game losing streak with a 123-116 win in Atlanta on Wednesday. Lou Williams scored 16 of his 18 points in the fourth. Center Timofey Mozgov sat out with an eye contusion and is questionable here. Golden State was 3-1 last year vs. L.A. but the loss was one of the biggest upsets in league history.

Key trends: The Warriors are 10-4 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 12-5 in the Lakers' past 17 at home.

Early lean: Sometimes I don't agree with the trends -- Lakers and over.

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