Free CFL Week 4 Picks From An Expert Canadian Football Handicapper
by Raphael Esparza - 7/14/2016
Sports gamblers betting on a new season in the CFL have feasted on the sportsbooks if they have been riding the underdogs during the first three weeks of games. So far the underdogs have gone 8-2-1 straight-up and an incredible 10-1 against the spread with the one game closing as a â€"pickâ€. With so much movement of players and coaching staff among all nine teams in the league this past offseason, it could take the oddsmakers a few more weeks to sharpen up the betting lines.
In last week’s free play for Doc’s Sports, I cashed in on the UNDER 49 in Toronto’s 25-14 upset against British Columbia as a 6.5-point road underdog. The CFL got an early start on things this week with Wednesday night’s game between Ottawa and Toronto in the East, but I have set my sights on Thursday night’s Edmonton Eskimos at Winnipeg Blue Bombers’ matchup in the West Division as my top play for Week 4.
CFL Week 4 Betting Overview
The favorite bucked the early betting trends in the first game on Week 4’s slate with Ottawa’s 30-20 victory over Toronto on Wednesday night as a slight one-point favorite on the road. The total stayed â€"under†the 54-point total line in this East Division matchup.
The other East Division tilt this week is between Hamilton and Montreal on Friday night. The Tiger-Cats have been listed as slight 1.5-point road favorites with the total set at 47. They will try and avoid a third-straight loss after falling to British Columbia and Winnipeg as home favorites the past two weeks. Hamilton could be better off on the road in this one with a 12-4 record ATS in its last 16 road games.
The Alouettes are coming off a Week 3 bye after splitting their first two games both SU and ATS. After beating Winnipeg 22-14 in their opener as 2.5-point road underdogs, they came up well short in a 28-13 loss to Ottawa at home in a game that also closed as a pick. The total stayed under in both contests. Montreal has a 7-3 edge ATS in its last 10 games against Hamilton.
Week 4 wraps things up on Saturday night with a West Division showdown between British Columbia and Saskatchewan. The Lions are 2-1 (SU and ATS), while the Roughriders are still looking for their first SU win this year following losses to Toronto at home as 3.5-point favorites and to Edmonton on the road as heavy underdogs. Saskatchewan is listed as a slight two-point home favorite to snap this skid and the total has been set 50.
Looking at the recent results in this bitter division rivalry, BC has won four of the last five meetings SU with a 3-1-1 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 games between the two.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Edmonton Eskimos at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Edmonton began defense of its 2015 Grey Cup title with a stunning 45-37 overtime loss to Ottawa as a six-point home favorite. Following a Week 2 bye, it needed overtime to get past Saskatchewan in a tight 39-36 win as a 9.5-point favorite at home. The fact that the Eskimos have posted 76 points in their first two games is not that big of a surprise, but I am rather stunned that the league’s top defense in points-allowed last season has been torched for 81 points in just two games.
Quarterback Mike Reilly threw for 383 yards in Week 1 on 40 passing attempts and last week against the Roughriders he put the ball up 37 times and completed 27 passes for 378 yards and four touchdowns. The Eskimos have averaged 467 yards of total offense in their first two games and that is a big reason why the points have been adding up on the scoreboard.
Drew Willy has the Blue Bombers off to a 1-2 start (SU and ATS) as their starting quarterback, but he is coming off his best effort of the year in last week’s stunning 28-24 upset against Hamilton as nine-point underdogs on the road. He ended that game with 279 yards passing while completing 32 of his 42 attempts. You get the feeling that he is going to need another big game throwing the ball to keep pace with the high-flying Eskimos.
Edmonton has been listed as a 3.5-point road favorite for Thursday night. The betting line for the total has been set at 55 and I am going with the â€"over†in this game all the way. Both teams should be able to light up the scoreboard at Investors Group Field and I also like the fact that the total has gone over in six of the Eskimos’ last seven games overall and in their last six games against a team with a SU losing record. The total has also gone over in three of Winnipeg’s last four West Division matchups.
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