Free CFL Week 14 Picks from Expert Canadian Football Handicapper

by Raphael Esparza - 9/23/2016

Road teams have had the betting edge all season long in the CFL, and through the first 13 weeks of games they have won 53.9 percent of the time straight up with an impressive 64.2 winning percentage against the spread. When it comes to betting road underdogs ATS, the payoff heading into this week's games is almost as high at 62.9 percent. While each matchup still has to be evaluated on its own merit, it's hard to ignore results such as this.

After breaking down all the matchups in this week's CFL slate with these trends in the back of my mind, I have found the prefect road underdog to go with for my free CFL Week 14 pick for Doc's Sports. I have zeroed in on Friday night's West Division tilt between the British Columbia Lions and the Edmonton Eskimos.

CFL Week 14 Betting Overview

The first game on Friday night's CFL schedule is an East Division battle between the Toronto Argonauts (5-7) and the Ottawa RedBlacks (5-5-1). Both teams are trying to keep pace with 6-6 Hamilton in the division title race, and both teams are fighting consistency issues with losing records over their last several games.

Toronto is just 1-6 both SU and ATS in its last seven outings, and the RedBlacks have dropped three of their last four games SU while going a costly 1-7 ATS in their last eight contests. BetOnline has listed Ottawa as a 5.5-point home favorite , and the total line for this game has been set at 53.5.

In the first of two Saturday games this weekend, the two hottest teams in the CFL will square off against one another when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-4) put their current seven-game winning streak on the line against Calgary Stampeders (10-1-1), who have won their last nine games while going 8-1 ATS. Calgary has been listed as a 9.5-point home favorite for this West Division showdown, and the betting line for the total has been set at 53.

This game also features two of the best quarterbacks in the league this season with Matt Nichols under center for Winnipeg and Bo Levi Mitchell leading the way for the Stampeders. Nichols has thrown for 1,927 yards and eight touchdowns since taking over the reins at the beginning of this impressive run, and Mitchell has the second-most passing yards in the CFL (3,936) and he leads the league in touchdown throws (22).

In the only interdivision matchup in Week 14, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats will go on the road as five-point favorites to face Saskatchewan with the total set at 53. The Roughriders are coming off just their second SU win of the year with a stunning 26-23 upset of Edmonton as 5.5-point underdogs at home. They have now covered ATS in their last four games.

The Tiger-Cats are 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) in their last five games after squeezing past Montreal 20-17 last week as heavy 10-point home favorites. The last time these two teams faced one another was in late August and Hamilton went on to crush the Roughriders 53-7 as a 10.5-point home favorite in the Tiger-Cats' most convincing victory all year long.

CFL Free Pick of the Week: British Columbia Lions at Edmonton Eskimos

The Lions have done a good job keeping pace with Calgary in the West at 8-3 SU, and they have been lining bettor's pockets all season long at 9-2 ATS. They won their previous three games (SU and ATS) heading into last week's bye while rolling up an average of 27.7 points and on the year BC is averaging close to 29 points a game.

Jonathon Jennings has led the way at quarterback and heading into this game he has the third-most passing yards in the CFL with 3,030. He has completed 65.3 percent of his 349 passing attempts, and he has also added another 246 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. I am looking for him to have another big game against the Eskimos this Friday night.

Edmonton comes into this game as a slight one-point home favorite, but it has been rough going for the defending Grey Cup champs with three straight losses and a 0-4 record ATS in the Eskimos' last four games. Two of the losses were against Calgary, but they may have hit rock-bottom with last week's loss to Saskatchewan.

Mike Reilly leads the CFL in passing yards (4,053), and he is second in touchdown throws (20) as part of an Edmonton offense that has been able to average 28.9 points a game. The problem has been a defense that has given up just as many points this year. This unit has especially struggled against the pass, which could be very problematic in this matchup.

The "over" on the total line could be a good way to go in this game, but I am banking on the revenge factor carrying the Lions to a SU victory on Friday night. Edmonton has won four of the last five meetings SU, but with both teams heading in completely opposite directions, BC is in perfect position to reverse this trend against its bitter division rivals.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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