Free CFL Week 13 Picks from Expert Canadian Football Handicapper

by Raphael Esparza - 9/16/2016

Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback Zach Collaros

The Calgary Stampeders have been setting the pace in the CFL all season long at 9-1-1 straight up with a 9-2 record against the spread, but the British Columbia Lions still have them in their sights for the West Division title at 8-3 SU (9-2 ATS). There is a three-team battle going on for the title in the East, with Ottawa holding a slim game and a half lead over Toronto and Hamilton at 5-4-1 SU (4-6 ATS). The biggest story in the CFL right now could be the Winnipeg Blue Bombers' current six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) following a 1-4 start.

As for this week's free CFL pick for Doc's Sports, I have focused my attention on Friday's East Division tilt between Montreal and Hamilton. Something has to give in this one with Alouettes posting just one win in their last six games both SU and ATS and the Tiger-Cats going 2-4 (SU and ATS) over that same stretch.

CFL Week 13 Betting Overview

In the first of two Saturday games on the Week 13 CFL slate, Toronto heads on the road to face the red-hot Blue Bombers as 10-point underdogs with the total set at 53. The Argonauts snapped a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS with last week's stunning 33-21 upset of Hamilton as 6.5-point underdogs at home to move to 5-6 (SU and ATS) on the year. The total has gone "over" in four of their last five games.

Winnipeg has failed to cover in its last two victories as a favorite after winning the previous four games closing as an underdog. It beat Toronto 34-17 on the road as a four-point underdog back in Week 8, and the total in that game went over 50.

Later in the day, Ottawa returns to action following a bye as an 8.5-point road underdog against Calgary in a battle of division leaders. The total line for this game has been set at 54. The RedBlacks are just 2-4 SU in their last six games with a costly 1-5 record ATS. The total has stayed under in four of their last five games.

The Stampeders are coming off an impressive home-and-home sweep of Edmonton in which they racked up a total of 79 points against the defending CFL champs. Their current winning streak stands at eight games, and they have covered the spread in seven of those contests.

Sunday's lone CFL matchup is a West Division tilt between Edmonton and the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Eskimos come in as five-point road favorites, and the betting line for the total has been set 55. Edmonton (5-6 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) remains one of the highest-scoring teams in the league with an average of 29.5 points a game, but it has been plagued with a defense that is allowing just as many points (29.6) to its opponents.

It has been another rough year for Saskatchewan at 1-10 SU, but it has been able to cover in its last three games. The Roughriders have lost the first two games of this season's series against Edmonton, but they covered in both contests with the total going over each time.

CFL Free Pick of the Week: Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Montreal's current slide has dropped its overall record to 3-8 both SU and ATS. It has been listed as a heavy 10-point road underdog for Friday night's game against Hamilton, and BetOnline has set the total for this East Division clash at 53. These two last met in mid-July, with the Tiger-Cats cruising to a 31-7 victory as 2.5-point road favorites. The total stayed well under the closing 47-point line.

The Alouettes decided to go with Rakeem Cato at quarterback in place on an ineffective Kevin Glenn for last week's game against BC, and the offense did manage to put up 27 points against a season average of just 21.1 points a game. The end result was still an 11-point loss as nine-point road underdogs. Montreal's defense is giving up close to 400 yards of total offense a game and 25 points a game on the scoreboard.

Hamilton has also had its issues the past few weeks with consistency on both sides of the ball, but the good news has been the return of quarterback Zach Collaros to the starting lineup. In five previous starts this season, he has thrown for 1,810 yards and 15 touchdowns while completing a solid 66.5 percent of his 197 attempts. Over the course of these five games the Tiger-Cats have averaged 37 points.

This should set the stage for a big night on the scoreboard for Hamilton against a very suspect Montreal secondary. The Tiger-Cats should also be able to move the ball on the ground behind CJ Gable, who is fourth in the CFL in rushing yards this year with 500.

While only two games separate these division rivals in the standings, the actual gap between them is much wider than the current 10-point spread for this game. Hamilton has won the last two meetings by double-digits, and it is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 Friday games overall. This should help set the stage for another victory this Friday night both SU and ATS.

Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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