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Football Betting Weekly Public Action Report: Sharps vs. Squares

by - 11/11/2016

Johnny Stanton UNLV Rebels

After a week last week with no games fitting the criteria, we are back with a massive slate of five games for the Public Action Report this week. Two weeks back we went just 1-1 ATS, but that still leaves us at 11-2 ATS on the season - hardly anything to complain about. A lot of the games this week are strange ones - not entirely attractive bets if it weren't for the line movement and what that means. It's a case, then, where we just have to trust the criteria and go for it.

About that criteria. I won't go into a major deep dive explanation - I've done that a couple of times already this year and you can look back at that. Basically, though, we are looking for games in which one side has drawn a massively disproportionate amount of the betting action, yet the line has moved to make that popular team more attractive for bettors. Obviously, most often when a team gets most of the bets oddsmakers want to encourage less bets on them so that their action is balanced and their profits are certain. When the opposite happens we know, most likely, that sharp money has hit the less-popular team hard. That means that it isn't a bad idea for us to do the same. Here are this week's five games:

UNLV (+7.5) vs. Wyoming, Saturday, 3 p.m. ET: Eighty three percent of all bets have been on Wyoming in this one, yet the line has dropped from 8 to 7.5. That's a clear sign that UNLV is worth the look in this one. Wyoming is clearly the better team and is in much better form, having covered their last five. At 7-2, though, they are facing a lot of pressure as the possibility of a fairly major bowl game looms. That could have an effect on the team. UNLV is not playing great, but the coaching staff is innovative and willing to take risks, and that could pay off here.

Missouri (-3.5) vs. Vanderbilt, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Commodores have drawn more than 85 percent of the bets in this one. Oddsmakers tried to open the game at 1, yet it very quickly shot up to 3.5. That movement through the key number of three against such lopsided action is a very good indicator that Mizzou is the play here. Again we are on the team here that is both worse and has worse form, so we just have to trust the math. The Tigers have lost and failed to cover their last five. Vanderbilt has lost three of five, though, so they aren't exactly the next Alabama.

LSU (-7) at Arkansas, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET: More than 70 percent of bets have come in on Arkansas at home here, yet the line move from six to the key number of 7. That means that LSU is the choice here. For the first time this week I am on the side I would otherwise want to be anyway. LSU is coming off that tough loss to Alabama. The offense continues to lack competence, but they will be able to run better in this game. That defense is legitimate, though, and will make things tough for Arkansas. The Razorbacks are poorly coached and really badly lack consistency - in their last two they lost to Auburn by 53 and beat Florida by 21.

Memphis (+3) vs. South Florida, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET: More than 70 percent of bets have been on South Florida, yet the line had dropped from four to the key number of three. That means that gets our attention this week. We shouldn't be surprised by now - this is the third straight game here that we have sided with the Tigers against their opponent. It's a shame Clemson doesn't qualify as well. These Tigers were struggling, having failed to cover five straight. They shook that off emphatically last week, though, winning by 44 at SMU as three-point favorites. That should give them confidence heading into this one. With this play we are betting that that wasn't a fluke. South Florida is playing well right now, but they are obviously far from perfect.

Cal (+14.5) at Washington State, Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Washington State is tied with Washington for the division lead heading into this week's action. Just let the bizarreness of that sink in for a moment or two. Three quarters of the best in this one have been on the surprising Cougars, yet the line has dropped from 15 to 14.5. It's not the strongest signal of the week, yet the message is clear - Cal is worth a play. Washington State has won seven straight but has just one cover in their last four, so they are not trouncing opponents. Cal also has just one cover in four - and one win - but they are more comfortable playing in a shootout than a defensive test, and this game certainly has that potential.

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