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Football Betting Weekly Public Action Report: Sharps vs. Squares

by - 9/30/2016

Justin Davis USC Trojans

We are back with another edition of the Public Action Report. It hasn't been a blazing start so far - only one week has offered games that fit the criteria, and the games went 1-1 ATS that week. It's hard to tell why the Report, usually so reliable in terms of volume of games, is so slow this year. What matters, though, is not what has happened, but what will happen. We have three very interesting games to look at this week, and the action is pretty clear in each of them. All three come from the glorious world of college football - the NFL has yet to offer a game that fits the criteria this year.

About that criteria. There is nothing subjective about the Public Action Report. It doesn't matter if I like the team or the situation - it's all about the numbers. Sportsbooks won't tell us how much money has been bet on each team in a game, but they will let us know which percentage of bets have been placed on each team. Odds generally respond in a market fashion, so when more has been bet one side we expect the odds for that side to move to be less attractive. Sportsbooks make money without risk when they have equal action on both sides. What we are looking for, though, are games when action is heavily unbalanced - at least 70 percent of action on one team - yet the line is moving to make the more-popular team more attractive.

That unexpected line movement has secrets to tell us. It most likely means that a small number of high-powered sharp bettors have been on the less-popular team. Otherwise, it could mean that for some reason the books know enough that they aren't afraid of unbalanced action. Whatever the reason, it has historically been a good practice to go against the public in these games and bet the less-popular team. And now for those three games:

North Carolina (+10.5) at Florida State (Saturday, October 1, 3:30 p.m. ET): 70 percent of bets have come in on the Seminoles, yet the line has dropped from 12 to 10.5. That means that the Tar Heels get our attention here. Florida State didn't just lose two weeks ago to Louisville - they were historically humiliated. So, so ugly. They came back last week and allowed South Florida - hardly the world's finest football team - to score 35 points. This is a team that is reeling. North Carolina showed a lot of grit in a big comeback win against Pitt. They have a strong offense and should be able to score on a very vulnerable Florida State D. It isn't hard to imagine North Carolina keeping this one close. Perhaps very close. I like this play.

Indiana (+6.5) vs. Michigan State (Saturday, October 1, 8 p.m. ET): We have a recurring theme this week. Like Florida State, Michigan State was a highly-regarded team that was totally humiliated in a huge conference game. That was last week against Wisconsin, and now we have to see how they bounce back. They have dealt with injuries and quarterback uncertainty and haven't been sharp on defense like we are used to from them. They are still a fairly public team, so it's no surprise that three-quarters of bets have come in on them. The line opened at 7.5, though, and moved through the key number of seven to 6.5. That means that Indiana gets a close look here. The Hoosiers are far from a great team. But they looked good in their first two games and played a surprisingly good Wake Forest team tough in their last time out. This play, though, is all about doubting Michigan State, not loving Indiana.

USC (-10.5) vs. Arizona State (Saturday, October 1, 8:30 p.m. ET): Not surprisingly, more than 70 percent of bets have been on the Sun Devils - and against the truly pathetic Trojans. More surprising, though, is that the line opened with the Trojans favored by eight, and that has since jumped all the way to 10.5. That's a clear sign that the Trojans are the play here. It is rare that we play a favorite on the report, never mind a double-digit one. The thing here, though, is that a 1-3 USC team isn't quite as bad as they seem. All three losses have been to good, ranked teams. They were smoked in the first two, but played Utah tight last week. Arizona State hasn't really played anyone yet and has horrible issues on defense. USC is a mess internally right now, but purely on talent they should win this one handily. If they can stay out of their own way then they will be fine.

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