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Football Betting Weekly Public Action Report: Sharps vs. Squares

by - 10/28/2016

Donnel Pumphrey San Diego State Aztecs

The Public Action Report is on a major roll this year - unlike anything we have seen in the history of it, which is coming up on 10 years now. We went 3-0 ATS last week, which upped the record on the year to 10-1 ATS. It's not hard to make serious money when you are winning at that kind of rate. The sample size is small, and we can't keep winning at a rate like that forever. We can't dwell on the potential negatives, though. For now we can only enjoy the success that we have had so far and work as hard as we can to keep the roll going. Ride the hot streak.

Of course, we don't have to work too hard in this case - all we have to do is apply the criteria and see what is spit out the other side. There is no subjectivity here whatsoever. And applying that criteria, which you can read about in detail in last week's report (briefly, we're looking for games in which the betting action is lopsided and line movement doesn't match the action), has given us just two games this week. Like 10 of 11 games to date, both are from college. Let's hope that the hot streak continues:

Utah State (+6) vs. San Diego State, Friday, 8 p.m. ET: We start with a Friday night contest - something we rarely do with the Report. The game opened with San Diego State favored by 7.5 points. More than 80 percent of bets have come in on them, yet the line has moved through the key number of seven to the current level of six. That's a strong indicator that Utah State is worth a close look here. What is interesting with the Public Action Report is that sometimes you just have to take a leap of faith and trust what the numbers tell you - even when what they tell you doesn't seem immediately obvious. Utah State has just one win and one cover in their last four games - and they weren't in the same game. San Diego State, meanwhile, is 6-1, and it has two very strong things going for them. For one, running back Donnel Pumphrey leads the nation in rushing yards by 236 yards and is averaging 178 yards per game. He's the real deal. On top of that, the Aztecs have an elite defense - fifth in the country in yards allowed, second in rushing yards allowed, and 13th in points allowed. The Aztecs are clearly the better team but not, it seems, the one to bet on.

UCF (+9.5) at Houston, Saturday, Noon ET: More than 80 percent of bets have come in on Houston in this one, yet the line has dropped from 11 to 9.5. That means it moved through the key number of 10, which means in turn that this is a pretty solid indication that Central Florida is the play here. Things have not followed the dream script for Houston this year. They opened with that huge win against Oklahoma, and it seemed like they were just going to power their way to a showdown with Louisville for a potential playoff spot. But then they lost a stunner at Navy. Then two games later they got crushed by SMU. And now they are just playing out the string. They could have made the playoff. Now they likely can't even win the conference. And on top of it all, reports are that head coach Tom Herman has all but accepted the Texas job already. There are, in short, plenty of reasons to doubt that Houston will be at peak sharpness. Central Florida has won three of their last four - all on the road - and are playing reasonably well. They could certainly be capable of at least playing Houston close here.

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