Football Betting Weekly Public Action Report: Sharps vs. Squares 10/7/2016

by Trevor Whenham - 10/7/2016

What a week it was for the Public Action Report last week. As good as it gets pretty much. There were three games that fit the criteria. All three teams we identified covered the spread. It gets better, though. Indiana upset Michigan State as 6.5-point underdogs, and North Carolina was a 10.5-point dog when they stunned Florida State. That's two teams that not only covered the spread but also paid off handsomely on the moneyline. Moneyline profits are common in this report. So far this year, then, the Report is off to a strong 4-1 ATS start. All those games have been in college because the NFL hasn't cooperated so far - and it doesn't again this week. We have three more college games on offer.

We have gone deep into the criteria the last two Reports , so we won't do that again. Essentially, though, we are looking for situation in which the odds in games with lopsided betting don't move like they typically should. The odd movement usually means that sharp money has hit the game fairly hard. Sharp money is often pretty smart money, so it is often a good idea to do what they do. In this report, then, we go against the betting public - and we have had long-term success doing so. It's important to note that there is no subjectivity here. I don't judge the games and pick the ones that look right. I don't do any handicapping to guide the picks. I just go with what the math says. And this week the math says:

UConn (+3) vs. Cincinnati, Saturday, 11:30 a.m. ET: Am I the only one thinking that I'd rather watch this matchup on the hardcourt? 83 percent of bets have come in on Cincinnati, yet the line opened with the Bearcats opened by four and has since fallen to the key number of three. That is a significant move because it involves the key number of three, so this tells us that the Huskies are worth a close look. There are two things that stand out when you look at this game. First, hurricane residue could mean that the weather is less than ideal here. Second, Cincinnati has failed to cover their last three spreads and are just 1-4 ATS on the season. Now, UConn is just 0-4-1 ATS, so it's not like they have an edge here. When both teams are lousy against the spread, though, someone has to cover.

N.C. State (-2.5) vs. Notre Dame, Saturday, Noon ET: This has gone through a massive swing. It opened with Notre Dame favored by as much as 2.5, with them favored by one widely available at the opening flash. Now, though, it is N.C. State favored by 2.5, with three points even available in spots. This has all happened with nearly 80 percent of bets coming in on the Irish. That means that N.C. State is worth a close look. Notre Dame is a very public team, yet they have already lost three times so they are obviously vulnerable. N.C. State is a solid 3-1 ATS and has covered all three spreads at home.

Virginia Tech (+1.5) at North Carolina, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET: We stick in the state of North Carolina for another one. This one is particularly interesting because the line has moved through the key number of three. That opens books up to the possibility of middling, and that can be very costly for them, so they avoid as much as they can. When it does happen, then, it's a sign of particularly aggressive sharp action. In this case North Carolina has drawn more than 70 percent of the bets in this one, yet the line opened at 3.5 and now sits at 1.5. That means that Virginia Tech is worth our attention. The Hokies have been commanding in their last two, winning by a combined score of 103-17, with 49 of those runs scored against a decent Boston College defense. The Tar Heels have come off of two straight very tough, emotional wins against Pitt and Florida State. They could be in for a letdown here.

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