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Football Betting Weekly Public Action Report: Sharps vs. Squares

by - 11/18/2016

Patriot Quarterback Tom Brady

It was another solid week for the Public Action Report last week. We wound up profitable at 3-2 ATS last week, and that moved us to 14-4 ATS on the season. There is nothing at all worth complaining about when it comes to that. We have a full card again this week, with our first NFL games of the season. It's an interesting collection of games - like last week we are pointed at teams by the criteria that we otherwise probably wouldn't be that interesting to look at. Put another way, I kind of hate all four teams that the numbers are telling us to back. That's part of what makes a criteria like this that involves no subjectivity whatsoever so interesting and fun - especially when it wins like it has this year. By this point in the season you surely have a basic understanding of what we are looking for - you can look back at the past several weeks for a description if you don't. Let's get on with the picks:

College Football

Maryland (+13.5) at Nebraska, Saturday, Noon ET: This game opened with Nebraska favored by 14.5, but it has since moved through the key number of 14 to 13.5. Nearly three-quarters of bets have come in on the Huskers, so the movement suggests that Maryland is our play here. Maryland has had two horrific games in a row against Michigan and Ohio State, but that is to be expected against that caliber of team. Before that they played Indiana tight and beat Michigan State, so they are capable of competing. Nebraska also lost to Ohio State two back - and by the identical 62-3 score that Maryland did. And last week they beat Minnesota by only a touchdown. It is not at all inconceivable that Maryland can at least keep this one close.

Cal (+10.5) vs. Stanford, Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET: The game opened with Stanford favored by 12, and that has since fallen to 10.5. The Cardinal have drawn three-quarters of all bets, so it seems like sharp money has hit Cal aggressively. We should, too. Stanford has won their last three, but they only covered two spreads, and they had lost three of four before that. Against aggressive offensive teams like Washington and Washington State they have struggled. Cal isn't as good as those two offensively right now because of a lack of experience and other factors, but they have a staff that is willing to get creative and take risks - especially in a big rivalry game like this when they need to make a statement and they have nothing to lose. I don't see Cal winning this one in all likelihood, but Stanford isn't exactly dominant right now, and it could easily be close.

NFL

Cleveland (+8) vs. Pittsburgh, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: This game opened with Pittsburgh favored by 10, fell almost instantly to 9.5, and has continued falling to the current level of 8. Well over 80 percent of bets have been on the Steelers, so this is a very clear sign - surprisingly - that the Browns are the play here. The Steelers have lost four straight and haven't covered a spread in that time. All is not right in Steeler land. They are clearly the better team here, but there is no guarantee at all that they will win this one by daylight. Cleveland doesn't have a win yet, and they have only covered two spreads all year, so it's hard to get too excited about what they offer. When lines move against such lopsided action, though, we have to pay attention.

San Francisco (+13) vs. New England, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET: As if betting on one truly awful team wasn't bad enough - now we get to back both cellar dwellers of the league. About 85 percent of all bets have come in on the Patriots - to the surprise of no one - yet the line opened at the key number of 14 and has fallen to 11. That makes the Niners out play here. Injuries are a concern for New England - most notably the uncertainty around Rob Gronkowski. San Francisco played Arizona very tough last time out, so they could be up for a big effort. The Patriots were surprisingly flat last week in losing at home to Seattle, and this is their first trip to the West Coast in two years. Again, I probably wouldn't look to this spot if I was on my own, but the line movement against the action is compelling.

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