Football Betting Weekly Public Action Report: Sharps vs. Squares 10/21/2016

by Trevor Whenham - 10/21/2016

It's has been one heck of a year for the Public Action Report. Action has been limited - there have only been eight games that have fit the criteria over the entire season so far. Of those eight, though, we have been on the right side of seven of them. 7-1 ATS - it's not hard to make money when you hit at a rate like that. The problem, of course, is that we haven't been getting a whole lot of games this year - we've taken more weeks off than we have had bets. We were on the sidelines last year, but we are back in action this week with three games. Two are from college, and the third is our first NFL game of the season. Here's hoping that the trend of success continues this week.

Before we get to the three games, we should revisit the criteria - it's been a while. Sportsbooks don't publicize the amount of money bet on each side in games, but they do share the percentage of bets that have come in on each side. As a general rule, we would expect the line to move so that the team that draws a strong majority of bets is less attractive for bettors. After all, books make a guaranteed profit without risk if they have the action balanced between both sides, so by making the more-popular team less attractive they are attempting to reach that balance. Sometimes, though, we see games in which one team has drawn a solid majority of the bets, yet the line has actually moved to make them more attractive. Those are the games we are interested in here. With this line movement books are showing that they aren't afraid of drawing more action on the more popular team. That can indicate a few things, but generally it means that a small number of sharp bettors have bet a significant amount of money on the less popular team. Sharp bettors are much smarter than the general betting public and much more successful for bettors over the long term, so it's often a good idea to follow what they do - especially when they are sending such a strong message like they are in these cases.

So, on with the games:

Auburn (-10) vs. Arkansas, Saturday, 6 p.m. ET: This game opened with Auburn favored by 7.5 points, but that very quickly climbed to 10. Four of every five bets have been on Arkansas, so the significant line movement is a strong indicator that Auburn is worth a close look. You can find them at 9.5 in spots as I write this, and grabbing that extra half point would be to your obvious advantage if you can still find it. Auburn has scored 96 points in their last two games, so the offense is in obvious form. Meanwhile, in their last two the Razorbacks have allowed 49 to the Crimson Tide and 30 to Ole Miss, so they are not exactly defensively sound. It's a good matchup for Auburn here, and the play here makes sense.

New Mexico (-17.5) vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 9 p.m. ET: The line movement has been very significant here. New Mexico opened as 12.5-point favorites, and it has now climbed all the way to 17.5. We almost never see a five-point swing. Seventy percent of bets have come in on Louisiana-Monroe, so despite the big move New Mexico is still the play here. The New Mexico offense is potent - they have scored at least 45 points in three of their six games this year. They struggled in comparison two games back against Boise State, but that was the best defense they have faced. They are not going to be challenged in the same way here - Louisiana-Monroe has allowed an average of 42 points in their last three games, and the last two opponents have been weak. At least, they were weak until they got to play the Warhawks.

New York Jets (-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Nearly 80 percent of bets have been on the Ravens, yet the line has moved from a "pick'em" at the open to two points now. That's an indicator that the Jets are worth a bet here. Geno Smith is getting the start here. He's far from a great QB, but he should be hungry, and this team could use a shake up at the position to change things up. What they were doing before sure wasn't working. Baltimore is banged up and has lost three straight. Home field could be the difference here, and we are on the right side of that.

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