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College Football Betting Trends for Help with NCAA Wagering

by Victor Ryan - 9/14/2016

Oklahoma State Cowboys wide receiver Marcell Ateman

Other than the chaos that was Central Michigan's stunning upset of nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, it was a rather ho-hum Week 2 of college football. Notable matchups were few and far between as most big-time programs scheduled easy, largely as a chance to fine-tune things before the start of conference play. Things should get much more exciting this week.

Before that, however, let's take our weekly look at the betting trends and notes from around college football.

Week 2 Biggest Upsets

There were five double-digit favorites that lost straight up last week, the most notable of these being Central Michigan (+17.5) at Oklahoma State, 30-27; and Arkansas (+10.5) at TCU, 41-38 OT. The others were Illinois State (+12) at Northwestern, 9-7; North Carolina A&T (+11.5) at Kent State, 39-36 OT; and New Mexico at New Mexico State (+11), 32-31.

Most know Oklahoma State was ultimately done in by an egregious refereeing error and miraculous Hail Mary. But that doesn't let the Cowboys off the hook. It was still a largely losing effort. After a free-fall to end to last season, it seems Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State might be losing ground in the Big 12.

While those were big straight up losers, in total home favorites were a profitable proposition last week.

Home Favorites ATS Record (Week 2): 35-26-1 (57.4 percent)

Home Favorites ATS Record (Season): 69-65-2 (51.2 percent)

Home Underdogs Struggle

After a winning opening week in college football, it wasn't a good second act for home underdogs as they were just 4-7 ATS. New Mexico State (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) and East Carolina were the big winners in this category. East Carolina knocked off North Carolina State 33-30 as a six-point home underdog, while New Mexico State stunned rival New Mexico 32-31 as an 11-point underdog.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this is East Carolina. The Pirates (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) have reeled off six straight wins against ACC schools, with the majority of those coming as an underdog.

Home Underdogs ATS Record (Week 2): 4-7 (36.4 percent)

Home Underdogs ATS Record (Season): 9-11-1 (45.0 percent)

Move That Line

There were two games in Week 2 where favoritism was flipped. The results were split. Texas Tech, which went from a two-point 'dog to a four-point favorite against Arizona State, was beaten 68-55. The betting public got the other one right. Kansas went from a two-point 'dog to a five-point favorite against Ohio and won handily 37-21.

Biggest Line Moves Week 2

Texas Tech at Arizona State (-4 to +2), Arizona State 68-55

Elon at Charlotte (-12.5 to -22), Charlotte 47-14;

Georgia State at Air Force (-18 to -23.5), Air Force 48-14;

Ohio at Kansas (+2 to -5), Kansas 37-21;

Idaho State at Colorado (-40.5 to -45), Colorado 56-7

Biggest Spreads of Week 2

There were two games with lines of more than 50 points: Savannah State at Southern Miss (-56) and Nicholls State at Georgia (-52.5). Rather remarkably, the former matchup ended in a push as the Golden Eagles walloped Savannah 56-0.

Most already know what happened in Athens. The Bulldogs struggled all afternoon and were nearly the victims of arguably the greatest upset in college football history when you consider the point spread. Alas, Georgia survived 26-24.

Here are the five biggest covers from Week 2:

Prairie View A&M at Texas A&M (-49), 67-0

UL-Monroe at Oklahoma (-46), 59-17

Idaho State at Colorado (-45.5), 56-7

Morgan State at Marshall (-42.5), 62-0

Central Florida at Michigan (-36), 5-14

Going Over

Thanks in part to three overtime games in Week 2 that all went over the total, the over cashed at a healthy 53.5 percent to reverse the trend from the opening week. Of course, in this day of college football there were some monster totals. Five different games had an over/under above 70 points last week. Of those, the over went just 1-4.

Biggest Totals of Week 2

Texas Tech at Arizona State (80), Arizona State 68-55;

Washington State at Boise State (74.5), Boise State 31-28;

Tulsa at Ohio State (72), Ohio State 48-3;

SMU at Baylor (72), Baylor 40-13;

Virginia at Oregon (71.5), Oregon 44-26

Over/Under Record (Week 2): 39-34 (46.6 percent)

Over/Under Record (Season): 70-84 (45.5 percent)

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