The battle for the Big Ten has morphed into all-out war with the arrival of Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh to the conference. Ohio State has gone 50-4 with a National Championship in four seasons under Meyer, while Michigan took a major leap forward in its first season with Harbaugh.
The recently-released college football win totals from South Point forecast the Wolverines ("over/under" 10 wins) and Buckeyes (O/U 9.5 Wins) as strictly the teams to beat this season in the Big Ten. However, it's likely to come down to whoever wins their matchup this fall that determines which team surpasses its win total. That seems too tough to forecast at this point. But don't fret. We have identified three other teams from the Big Ten that look wholly capable of surpassing their posted win totals.
Iowa 8.5, Over -110 Under -110
The Hawkeyes have a probable NFL talent with returning quarterback C.J. Beathard, and he'll be protected by one of the Big Ten's best offensive lines. Iowa also has a favorable schedule as it's likely to be favored in all games with the exception of its tilt with Michigan, which will be in Iowa City. The nonconference slate consists of Miami (OH), Iowa State and North Dakota State. The Hawkeyes also look fully capable of sweeping its West Division foes, same as last year.
The concern for Iowa is its lack of dynamic playmakers on offense. However, with a top-shelf offensive line and big-time quarterback, that's a problem that can be masked somewhat.
The Hawkeyes look fully capable of getting to 11 wins and sailing over their posted win total.
The Pick: Over
Michigan State 7.5, Over -130 Under -110
The Spartans won their second Big Ten championship in the past three seasons when knocking off Iowa in the Big Ten title game. However, all that success came with Connor Cook under center and a bevy of experience at all positions.
That is all gone. Michigan State returns just two starters on offense, both on the line, and the defense must replace three of four starters along its line.
Winning the East and returning to the Championship Game would seem a stretch. Winning at least eight games is not.
New quarterback Tyler O'Connor is a fifth-year senior who impressed during the spring. He should be able to step in immediately. The linebacking corps, always a force in East Lansing, is again deep and talented; and the schedule also sets up favorably. They get both Ohio State and Michigan at home, but even losing both those and they can still get to eight wins. While you'll have to lay some extra juice, the over seems the clear play here.
The Pick: Over
Northwestern 6.5, Over -120 Under -110
The Wildcats return 13 starters from last year's 10-win team. This group includes workhorse running back Justin Jackson (1,412 rushing yards last season) and sophomore quarterback Clayton Thorson, who reports say showed marked improvement in spring camp. On defense. Northwestern should again be a stout bunch, especially up the middle. Defensive tackles Tyler Lancaster and C.J Robbins are a wall up front, while middle linebacker Anthony Walker-a first-team All-Big Ten selection last year-is a tackling machine.
Northwestern opens with Western Michigan, Illinois State and Duke, all at home and all very winnable. Add in conference doormats Indiana and Illinois at home and winnable road games against Purdue and Minnesota and this has the looks of at least a seven-win team.
The Pick: Over
Big Ten Win Totals
|
Michigan |
10 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Ohio State |
9.5 |
Over +105 Under -125 |
|
Iowa |
8.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Nebraska |
8.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Michigan State |
7.5 |
Over -130 Under -110 |
|
Wisconsin |
7 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Northwestern |
6.5 |
Over -120 Under -110 |
|
Penn State |
6.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Minnesota |
6 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Illinois |
4.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Indiana |
4.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Maryland |
4.5 |
Over +110 Under -130 |
|
Purdue |
4.5 |
Over -110 Under -110 |
|
Rutgers |
4.5 |
Over -125 Under +105 |
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