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2016 Big 12 Football Season Win Totals Predictions and Expert Betting Advice

by Victor Ryan - 6/29/2016

Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Mason Rudolph

The Big 12 was represented for the first time in the College Football Playoff last year by conference champion Oklahoma. It was an ignominious introduction for the Big 12 as the Sooners were promptly smashed 37-17 in the semifinals by Clemson.

The preseason consensus has Oklahoma, which returns Heisman Trophy candidate Baker Mayfield at quarterback, as a Top 3 team nationally and strictly the team to beat in the Big 12.

Outside of the Sooners, the Big 12 is its usually muddled self. Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU are all explosive offensively and capable of getting to 10 wins, while Texas Tech and Texas both look poised to take a step forward in 2016.

Below are the posted win totals for each team in the Big 12 followed by analysis and a few predictions. Odds provided by South Point.

Oklahoma

10

Over -110, Under -110

Baylor

9.5

Over +100, Under -120

Oklahoma State

8.5

Over -110, Under -110

TCU

8

Over -125, Under -105

Texas Tech

7

Over -110, Under -110

Texas

6.5

Over -110, Under -110

West Virginia

6.5

Over -130, Under +110

Kansas State

5.5

Over -120, Under +100

Iowa State

3.5

Over +100, Under -120

Kansas

1.5

Over -110, Under -110

Baylor Bears

Baylor is in the midst of one of the sleaziest NCAA scandals in recent memory. This led to the firing last month of Head Coach Art Briles, who in eight seasons had incredibly turned the long-suffering Bears into perennial national title contenders.

Replacing Briles is Jim Grobe. A noted disciplinarian, Grobe previously spent 12 seasons as the head coach at Wake Forest where in 2006 he earned National Coach of the Year honors when leading the Demon Deacons to a school-record 11 wins and ACC Atlantic Division championship.

Grobe has just four returning starters on offense and five on defense, though that group does include standout quarterback Seth Russell. The offense should again be explosive, but on defense, all four starters along the defensive line must be replaced.

There's a dark cloud hanging over Waco in the wake of the Briles firing. Can the Bears circle the wagons with an "us-against-the-world" mentality? Perhaps. But with road trips to Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia on the slate, it might not matter.

The Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)

Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys return 19 starters (kicker and punter included) from last year's team that started 10-0 before closing the season with losses to Baylor, Oklahoma and Ole Miss. NFL prospect Mason Rudolph will be back under center for Oklahoma State, and his surrounding weapons are outstanding. While the entire offensive line returns, that may not necessarily be a good thing. That group was much-maligned last year for constantly being pushed around by opposing Big 12 defenses. It will have to improve for the Cowboys to reach their potential.

Oklahoma State looks capable of a 3-0 nonconference start with home games against S.E. Louisiana, Central Michigan and Pittsburgh. It's also a positive the Cowboys get Texas, West Virginia and Texas Tech at home. Another 10-win season looks more than possible for Oklahoma State.

The Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)

Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders were the second-highest-scoring team in college football last year, and the offense could be even better this season. Among the bevy of returning skill players are quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is one of the best signal-callers in the Big 12. The junior Mahomes-who completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 4,653 yards with 35 TDs last season-could find himself in the Heisman Trophy conversation as the fall wears on.

The fate of the Red Raiders will likely come down to its defensive unit. Second-year defensive coordinator David Gibbs is largely turning to youth with four freshman or sophomores projected to man Texas Tech's front-seven. This group can't be much worse than last year's, which mostly consisted of players recruited prior to coach Kliff Kingsbury's arrival. So it's very possible this young group simply has more talent given Kingsbury's recruiting track record.

As for the schedule, the Red Raiders are likely to be favored in each of their first five games. It's also a positive they play West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas and Baylor all at home. Texas Tech seems very capable of getting to nine wins and sailing past the win total.

The Pick: Over 7 (-110)

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