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Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 9 NFL Betting Options

by Chris Vasile - 11/4/2016

Ezekiel Elliott Dallas Cowboys

Week 8 in the National Football League went down as one of those rare weeks where the betting public actually got the better of Las Vegas sportsbooks. Fortunately, for those who follow this column regularly, Week 8 was the Basic Strategy Teasers' fourth consecutive winning week. The system went 2-0 with its top plays and 0-1 with the extra game that qualified but one that I told you to lay off. Those results bring the systems record to a staggering 15-1 (19-3 if you count the extra options. You can check the result for yourself here -Week 5,Week 6, Week 7.

By now we all know the Week 8 results, so I won't get into too much detail. The New Orleans Saints were able to pull off the minor upset at home against a hobbled Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. The Saints played a physical brand of football that threw the Seahawk offense off rhythm, and because of that the Saints were able to win the time of possession. The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, essentially laid an egg against the Houston Texans, but thanks to their fourth quarter ways were able to get a backdoor cover on the +8.5-adjusted spread. You can never count the Lions out of any game the way Matthew Stafford throws the ball.

Week 9 of the NFL features some massive divisional games that will potentially carry huge playoff implications. The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens, and many people around the team expect QB Ben Roethlisberger to suit up and give his injured knee a go. The aforementioned Lions play their second consecutive road game, this time in Minnesota against a suddenly-slumping Vikings team. A win for the Lions would make the NFC North division race all the more interesting. And lastly, the game everyone is waiting for, the first-place Oakland Raiders host the defending Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos. Everyone has been waiting for Oakland to put it all together and become a solid football team. They are currently 6-2 and have a chance here to put the league on notice.

In this article, I will be giving you teams that I think will be the most attractive when teasing the spread either up or down six points. This is called the "basic strategy teaser". A basic strategy teaser is a two-team, six-point teaser that uses the power of NFL key numbers, which are the most common margins of victory, to move certain spreads around the three- and seven-point mark.

It's a very tricky Week 9 in the NFL, but the BST has four games that qualify for the system. I love two of them, and I would much rather watch the other two than wager on them.

All lines are courtesy of Mybookie.ag

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: Cowboys -7.5

Six-Point Teaser: Cowboys -1.5

In previous seasons, this would be the kind of game that the Cowboys fail to win on their way to a mediocre 7-9 or 8-8 season. They have every reason to lay an egg in this matchup as they are coming off an emotional overtime win against a division rival, in primetime no less.

Fortunately for Cowboys fans, this team is different from year's past. They have a mental toughness about them that I really like, and they don't have to worry about Tony Romo doing Tony Romo things. The Cowboys are in good hands with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott leading the way. Not to mention, Dez Bryant just had his best game of the season last week against a "tough" Eagles' defense. Bryant put up 113 yards on four catches and found the end zone once. They now have to go into Cleveland and play a team that has found ways to blow any and every lead they mange to get. The New York Jets of all teams put up 24 second-half points en route to a come-from-behind victory.

Prognosis: We don't have to worry about laying the seven and a half points in this game. The adjusted spread allows us to get the Cowboys laying just two points. Even if they do come out a bit flat, I think the talent difference alone will be enough to will them to another win and bring them another step closer to an NFC Division crown. The Browns might not win a game this season, and I'm okay with that. They do nothing for football but set the sport back 30 years. Maybe they should tempt LeBron James into playing a game or two for them. Maybe then they will win a game.

Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -7.5

Six-Point Teaser: Packers -1.5

The Packers were involved in a shootout last week with the Atlanta Falcons. They lost the game by one point, but that game showed me that the Packers' offense is going to be just fine. The defense, on the other hand, leaves me with a lot more questions than answers. Fortunately for Packers' bettors this week, the Colts can't stop anyone from scoring, either, which means there will be plenty of points in this game. Indianapolis ranks 31st with 287.8 passing yards allowed per game and have allowed opposing quarterbacks to hit at a 66.8 percent completion rate, with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. To make matters worse for the Colts, the Packers expect the injury ward to clear out this week. They expect Ty Montgomery to play on offense and at least two of their three missing starting cornerbacks to start defensively.

Prognosis: The Packers will simply have too many weapons on offense for the Colts to cover. Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self last week and had a very good connection with Jordy Nelson, who caught four balls four 94 yards and a touchdown, as well as Davante Adams, who hauled in a season-high 12 passes. Defensively for the Packers, they won't have to worry about the Colt's weak running attack, which will allow them to get pressure on Andrew Luck and drop seven or eight men into coverage. Green Bay rarely losses on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, and getting them at -1.5 on the adjusted spread is a gift.

The Rest

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders

Spread: Broncos +1.5

Six-Point Teaser: Broncos +7.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Spread: Eagles +2.5
Six-Point Teaser: Eagles +8.5

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