Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 12 NFL Betting Options

by Chris Vasile - 11/25/2016

First and foremost, Happy belated Thanksgiving to my American friends and colleagues. Being from Canada, I benefitted from a full day of football without having to juggle massive family gatherings and nine different foods at the same time. I hope everyone got through the day unscathed.

As far as football goes, I think we can all agree that we were treated to some pretty damn good football throughout the day. The Detroit/Minnesota game had just enough storylines to make its dramatic finish even better. The Lions now lead the NFC North by two full games over the Vikings with five games left to play. I wouldn't exactly call them a lock to win the division, because, after all, they are still the Lions. The best game of the day was always going to be the Washington/Dallas game, and it delivered in a plethora of ways. Kirk Cousins continues to put up wicked numbers but unfortunately suffers from a lack of defense. The two-headed monster for Dallas, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, continued to produce and play like 11-year vets instead of 11-game rookies. And lastly, the nightcap was a game where many of us could have predicted the outcome. There was no way Scott Tolzien was going to beat Ben Roethlisberger in a football game. While it may have been close early, I never expected Tolzien to be able to make plays and keep up with an offense as powerful as Pittsburgh's.

As far as last week's BST selections go, it was another perfect 2-0 week, with the New York Giants covering their adjusted spread of -1.5 and the Arizona Cardinals sneaking in a backdoor cover of their adjusted +8.5-point spread. You can see the results for yourself here.Week 5,Week 6,Week 7,Week 8, andWeek 9, Week 11.

Week 12 of the NFL features some intriguing games with a lot of playoff implications. The best game on the board, in my opinion, is the Sunday night tilt between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos. Both teams sit at 7-3 on the season and need to win this game in order to keep pace with the division-leading Oakland Raiders. Another interesting matchup I will have my eye on is the game between Seattle and Tampa Bay. The Bucs are only one game back of the Falcons for first in the NFC South and will need a win to keep pace. The Seahawks come into Raymond James Stadium having won three straight thanks to an offense that has seemingly woken up. They are, however, banged up on the defense side of things, and I believe Jameis Winston will be able to make some plays against a makeshift defense unit.

In this article, I will be giving you teams that I think will be the most attractive when teasing the spread either up or down six points. This is called the "Basic Strategy Teaser". A basic strategy teaser is a two-team, six-point teaser that uses the power of NFL key numbers, which are the most common margins of victory, to move certain spreads around the three- and seven-point mark.

It looks like a very straightforward Week 12 in the NFL, but sometimes that could be the recipe for a terrible betting week. There are five games that qualify for the BST, and I absolutely love two of them.

All lines are courtesy of Mybookie.ag

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Spread: Patriots -8
Six Point Teaser: Patriots -2

Tom Brady is a great quarterback. Perhaps the greatest of all time. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't even a good quarterback. I wish I could keep the reasons as to why the Patriots will beat the Jets by at least two points that short, but then I wouldn't have an article to submit.

The Patriots are on a roll, and when Tom Brady plays mad he's nearly unstoppable. Brady seemingly hits some sort of milestone with each passing week. Last week, Brady threw four touchdowns and no picks against the 49ers - the 21^st time he has done that in his career. That win was his 199 ^th - tying him for second all time, only one back of Peyton Manning. He also threw a touchdown pass to his 63^rd different receiver. Only Vinny Testaverde (70) has more. He was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the 27^th time, tying Manning for the all-time lead there. And lastly, Brady is just 57 yards short of throwing for 60,000 in his career. That milestone has been reached by only four other quarterbacks in the history of the NFL.

I could write a list of accomplishments for Fitzpatrick, but I wouldn't even know where to start. He was benched in Week 10 in favor of Bryce Petty. That's not impressive. The Jets as a team have lost six of their last seven games and seemingly can't do anything right. They lost 9-6 to the LA Rams, which tells you all you need to know about their ability to keep up on offense.

We know the Patriots will be without Rob Gronkowski once again this week, but with a full arsenal of weapons, including LeGarrette Blount, Danny Amendola, Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman, the Pat's will need to score about 17 points to cover the adjusted spread.

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: Giants -7.5

Six-Point Teaser: Giants -1.5

It's hard not to get excited about the opportunity to bet against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are 0-11 on the season and have used about 18 different quarterbacks by my count this year. This week, it will be Josh McCown who will take the opening snaps under center before he either gets hurt or benched like so many Browns' quarterbacks that have tried before him. The most exciting news that came out of the Browns' practices this week was that Robert Griffin III is set for a return to football action. He has been active off the IR and should be under center just in time to complete the 0-16 season.

The Giants have no such quarterback concern as Eli Manning has led his team to a 7-3 record, and because of that the Giants have one eye on the postseason. They survived a scare last week from the Chicago Bears, and because of that I think they will be ready and focused from the opening kickoff. Manning should be licking his chops at the thought of going up against a defense that ranks 31^st in yards (409.5), 22^nd against the pass (265.5), 31 ^st against the run (143.9) and 31^st in points allowed (29.5).

The Giants simply have too many weapons at their disposal for the Browns to account for. Odell Beckham Jr, Sterling Shepard, Victor Cruz and a resurgent Rashad Jennings will all be able to make plays and carry the Giants to their sixth consecutive victory and a bit closer to a playoff spot.

The Rest

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -7.5

Six Point Teaser: Bills -1.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -7.5

Six Point Teaser: Dolphins -1.5

San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans

Spread: Chargers +1.5

Six-Point Teaser: Chargers +7.5

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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