All-Sports Expert Betting Tips to Help Win Cash this Week 1/19/2016

by Dave Schwab - 1/19/2016

Serious sports bettors understand just how hard it can be to beat the books on a consistent basis in light of the fact that these books already have a built-in edge with the betting odds they release. The best way to try and flip this advantage in your favor is to try and uncover an inside edge when betting on the games. Doc's Sports' expert handicappers have made a career out of helping sports bettors capitalize on these inside edges with some big-unit plays that have the best chance to payoff.

Sometimes gaining an inside edge is just a matter of utilizing a few betting tips that actually look to take advantage of favorable trends in a particular matchup. The following are a few that I have uncovered for this week's betting events.

Brady vs. Manning Betting Trends Point Towards the Over

The New England Patriots are playing the Denver Broncos in Sunday's AFC Championship Game, but many bettors will be crunching the numbers in another showdown between two of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game at the highest of levels.

Going back to the days when current Broncos' quarterback Peyton Manning was playing for the Indianapolis Colts, he has faced off against New England quarterback Tom Brady a total of 16 times since the 2001 season. According to the betting trends with Odds Shark, Brady has a big edge straight up at 11-5. However, when it comes to covering against the spread, the advantage is 9-6-1 in favor of Brady.

One of the best bets when these two future Hall of Famers have faced each other as starting quarterbacks for their respective team has been a play on the "over" on the total line. In 16 previous meetings, the total has gone over the closing line in 11 of the games. It has been set by 5Dimes at 44 for this Sunday's showdown in Denver.

These two teams met earlier this season, with Denver getting the best of it in a 30-24 win at home as a 2.5-point underdog. However, Brock Osweiler got the start for an injured Manning at quarterback. The total in that game went over the 43-point closing line.

The last time these two faced one another in the regular season was in 2014, with New England rolling to a 43-21 victory as a three-point home underdog. The last time Brady squared off against Manning in the postseason was two years ago in the AFC Championship. Manning got the best of it that day in the Broncos' 26-16 victory as 4.5-point favorites at home.

Riding the Under on the Thunder

Betting trends in the NBA tend to go through some big ebbs and flows over the course of a lengthy 82-game schedule, so sometimes the best way to bet the games is to sit back and wait for these trends to repeat themselves.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a solid 30-12 straight up through the first half of their regular-season schedule heading into Tuesday's road game against Denver as eight-point favorites on 5Dimes' current betting line. Betting on this team has been a losing proposition overall with a costly 18-24 record against the spread, but a total line bet on the "under" has paid off in 26 of Oklahoma City's first 42 games. The Thunder are known for high-scoring games with an average of 108.5 points a game, but sometimes it is hard for the oddsmakers to properly adjust the total line down enough to reflect a defense that is ranked 10^th in the NBA in points allowed (100.0).

The total line for Tuesday's game against the Nuggets has been set at 212.5 points, and it has now stayed under in the Thunders' last four outings. It has also stayed under in seven of their last nine Northwest Division games and in seven of their last 11 road games against Denver. Next up for Oklahoma City is a home game against Charlotte this Wednesday night, and the total has stayed under in three of the last five meetings between these two inter-conference foes.

The Mustangs are a Tough Ride as Big Favorites

The No. 8 SMU Mustangs will put their straight up 17-game winning streak on the line this Tuesday night as 13-point home favorites against the Houston Cougars in an American Conference clash. They have gone an even 3-3 against the spread in their first six conference game this season as favorites in all six games, but they have failed to cover in the three AAC games played so far on their home court.

While SMU has covered as a 14-point road favorite in each of its recent road victories against East Carolina and Tulane, Tuesday's game against Houston could present a good opportunity to go against the Mustangs as a double-digit favorite. Going back over their last seven games as favorites of 13 points or more, they are just 2-5 ATS. When it comes to a head-to-head matchup against Houston, they fall to 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings.

The Mustangs rolled through the nonconference portion of their schedule, and their average winning margin in this 17-game run as been 19 points. However, since the departure of Keith Frazier from the team right before the start of play in the AAC, they are averaging just 71.6 points per game as opposed to a season total of 80.2 PPG. That difference could be just enough to tip the scales in the Cougars' favor to cover.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 10:07 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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