It is a New Year and a new chance to get back on track if you took it on the chin in your sports bets in 2015. You should make a resolution right now to make every bet count by working with Doc's Sports as your top selection service in 2016. It is all about gaining that all-important edge against the sportsbooks. And heading into the 45th year of picking winners, nobody has been better at uncovering those edges than Doc's.
Sometimes it is just a matter digging deeper than everyone else to come up with a few inside betting tips that actually swing the edge in your favor, and here are a few that I have uncovered for this week's betting events.
Cavaliers Continue to Cash in on the Total Line
It's no big surprise that Cleveland has the best straight up record in the NBA's Eastern Conference at 23-9 heading into Wednesday night's road game against Washington as a seven-point favorite with BetOnline. The Cavaliers continue to win far more games than they lose with a SU 9-2 record in their last 11 game, but betting on this team since late December has been a different story with a 3-3-1 record against the spread in their last seven outings.
Where LeBron and Co. have been paying off big for bettors in with the "under" bet on the total line. Going back to a 111-76 romp against Orlando on Dec. 11 as a 3.5-point road favorite and a closing total line of 196, the total has stayed under in nine of Cleveland's last 11 games. A good deal of this winning formula has been an offense that is ranked 18th in the NBA in scoring with 100.5 points a game complementing a defense that is ranked third in the league in points allowed (94.7).
Turning to Wednesday's tilt against the Wizards, the total has stayed under in 12 of the last 16 meetings overall, including the first meeting this season in early December. The betting line for the total in this matchup has been set at 199.5.
Betting the Trends in the College Football Playoff Championship Game
The 2015 college football season is down to just one last head-to-head matchup between the SEC's No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide and the ACC's No. 1 Clemson Tigers. These two will square off against one another on Monday, Jan. 11 in the College Football Playoff National Championship in Glendale, Arizona. BetOnline has listed the Tide as 6.5-point favorites, and the betting line for the total has been set at 51.
Looking back at the betting results for the recent 40-game college bowl season, the favorites had the clear advantage SU at 29-1. And they were a solid bet at 25-15 ATS. The total went over in 25 of the 40 games.
The SEC returned to its role as the top power conference in the country with an 8-2 record both SU and ATS in 10 bowl games, including Alabama's 38-0 shutout of Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl Classic as 10-point favorites to punch its ticket back to the national title game for the first time since 2012.
You have to give all the credit in the world to Clemson for its stunning 37-17 victory against Oklahoma as a 3.5-point underdog in the Orange Bowl. However, out of the seven ACC teams that played in a bowl game this season, Duke was the only other team to cover ATS in a 44-41 victory against Indiana as a three-point underdog. The final tally for this conference was a 2-5 record both SU and ATS.
Adding just a bit more fuel to Alabama's fire to win a fourth national title since 2009 is an 11-5 record ATS in its last 16 neutral-site games and a perfect 4-0 record ATS in its last four games against a team from the ACC.
Home Dogs Look to Run Wild in the NFL Playoffs
This Saturday marks the start of the NFL Playoffs with four matchups in the Wild-Card Round. Right now on BetOnline's current NFL betting board, all four home teams are listed as underdogs. Houston (against Kansas City), Cincinnati (against Pittsburgh) and Minnesota (against Seattle) opened as home underdogs when the betting odds were first released, and the betting public has moved Washington from being a one-point favorite at home against Green Bay to a one-point underdog for this round's final game on Sunday afternoon.
Looking back at OddsShark's NFL Wild-Card Round betting trends, the home teams have run up a SU record of 52-28 over the past 80 Wild-Card games while going 47-31-2 ATS. If you go back over the last four seasons, just five of the 16 road teams came away with a win both SU and ATS in the Wild-Card Round.
Seeing how all four home teams this year are underdogs, the trends continue to be in their favor with just two favorites covering in the past eight Wild-Card games. The overall betting trend still leans slightly towards the favorites with a 42-36-2 edge ATS in those same 80 Wild-Card games, but keep in mind that most home teams are usually favored when it comes to the playoffs.
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Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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