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Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report

by - 12/4/2015

Connor Cook Michigan State Spartans

It has been a while since we have had games that fit the Public Action Report criteria. There aren't many this week, but those that we do have are all quite interesting, so we'll go for it. Before we get into the games, though, we should revisit the logic and the criteria since it has been a while.

The odds on football games typically act like a market, responding to supply and demand. When bettors bet more heavily on one team then the price goes up - the odds become less-attractive - in order to slow down the amount of bets on that team. When a team is less-popular then the odds will become more attractive in hopes of drawing more bets to that team. The reasoning is simple - sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit no matter how the game turns out if they have the same amount of money bet on both teams in a game. Profit without risk - a dream scenario for the books.

We aren't able to know how much has been bet on each team, but we can find out what percentage of bets have come in on each team. Most of the time things react just as we expect - we see the lines move to make a team less attractive when they have drawn a large majority of the bets in a game. Sometimes, though, the opposite happens - the odds for a very popular team actually fall. Because that doesn't really make sense, we know that something is up. Most often it means that the sharp bettors - the pros with huge bankrolls and sophisticated ways of making betting decisions - have aggressively bet on the less-popular team. If they like a team then it's not a bad idea for us to like them, too. There could be other reasons for the odd line movement, too, but they all boil down to the same thing - the books aren't afraid of having unbalanced action on a game. Books hate losing money, so if they are okay with the unbalanced action then it tells us that they are confident in one side - and that side could be worth our attention.

This week we have three games that meet our criteria - a virtual playoff game in college action, and two NFL games:

College Football

Michigan State (-3.5) vs. Iowa (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET): This game started out at 4.5 yet dropped almost instantly to 4 and then the current level of 3.5. It dropped so fast that most books didn't get a chance to post it at anything other than 3.5. That fast movement is somewhat surprising given that more than 70 percent of bets have come in on Michigan State. It's a sign that sharp money hit the Hawkeyes very hard out of the gate. That means that Iowa is worth a look here. This game is essentially a playoff game - the winner will find themselves in the College Football Playoff, while the loser may not even get a spot in the Rose Bowl. It couldn't matter more. Iowa is undefeated, but they haven't really played anyone - a destruction of Northwestern is their most impressive result. Michigan State has a loss but also has impressive wins over Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State. The Spartans were supposed to be at this level. Kirk Ferentz, in his wildest dreams, couldn't have imagined his team being here. There are a lot of reasons to think Michigan State is better suited in this spot, but the line movement tells a different story.

NFL

Denver (-3.5) at San Diego (Sunday, 4:05 pm ET): Three-quarters of bettors have been on the far-more-public team here - the Broncos. Despite that lopsided support, the line has dropped from 4.5 to 3.5. That means that San Diego gets a look here. The Chargers offense is coming off a big game, and that could be a factor here. More significant, though, is the Brock Osweiler factor. The Denver QB has been very good in his first two starts. The Chargers have the luxury of much more game tape than anyone has had to get ready for him up to this point, though, and that could make it harder for the young QB to be as unexpectedly good as he has been so far. The Broncos also have a bad habit of playing down to the level of their opponents - they are 0-4 ATS this year in games against teams with losing records.

Philadelphia (+9.5) at New England (Sunday, 4:25 pm ET): The line is actually all over the place in this one - you can find it everywhere from 9 to 10.5 as I write this. What is consistent, though, is that the line has either dropped or held steady at every book. Given that well over 70 percent of bets have, predictably, come in on New England, that is noteworthy - and it means that the Eagles get our attention in this one. It's pretty easy to understand why sharp bettors would be skeptical about the Patriots in the face of a big spread like this. After all, pretty much every guy who can catch the ball or run with it has suffered a crippling injury this season. They are aided by having both the best coach and the best quarterback on the planet, but sooner or later the loss of so many crucial guys is going to catch up to the team. I would guess that most of the sharps betting on Philly aren't expecting an upset - just not a blowout.

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