Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report 10/16/2015

by Trevor Whenham - 10/16/2015

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning

Last week was the first week of the football season in which the Public Action Report criteria was met for us. It was a good start, too - the report wound up 3-2 ATS in the five games covered. It was a good start, and we'll hope to continue the momentum with the three games we are looking at this week.

We won't go deep into the criteria this week - we looked at it closely last week, and you can go back and read that for a refresher. Briefly, though, we are looking for games in which the public betting patterns and the line movement don't match. Typically, when the number of bets in a game are heavily tilted towards one team we would expect to see the line for that team become less attractive as the books seek to balance action. Sometimes, though - as in the three games here - the line has moved to make the more-popular team more attractive. When that happens then we can deduce that a small number of big money professional bettors - the sharps - have directed their action at the less-popular team. If the sharp bettors are on a team then it is often worth our while to be on that same team - or at least to look closely at that team.

Without further ado, here are the three most compelling games of the week - two from the college ranks and one from the NFL:

College Football

Michigan State (+7.5) at Michigan (Saturday, 3:30 pm ET): The Wolverines opened as 6.5-point favorites. More than 70 percent of all bets have come in on Michigan State, yet the line has climbed through the key number of seven to 7.5. That's a good indicator that the sharp money has hit the Wolverines and perhaps that you should too. The Wolverines are way ahead of schedule in their first year under Jim Harbaugh. They have not allowed a point in any of their last three games - opponents haven't even reached the red zone - and they are improving on both sides of the ball each time out. Michigan State is struggling with injuries, and it creates some matchups issues - the Michigan State secondary is vulnerable, for example, and Michigan has more defensive depth than the Spartans have offensive weapons. Add in that the home crowd will be going insane, and that Harbaugh, his staff, and his players will be desperate to make a big statement, and it's not too hard to convince yourself that the Wolverines are worth a close look.

Nevada (-6.5) at Wyoming (Saturday, 4 pm ET): Nevada has drawn 80 percent of the bets in this one, yet the line opened at the key number of seven and has dropped widely to 6.5, with 6 now available in several spots and likely to be widely available. That means that Wyoming gets our attention here. The Cowboys have lost nine in a row dating back to next year, so they are not an easy team to love. They have covered three of their last four spreads, though - all on the road - so their play has certainly improved. The Wolf Pack aren't exactly a great team, either - they lost to a bad UNLV team at home two back, and their overall offense has been no more efficient than Wyoming's. This won't be a beauty of a game by any means, but Wyoming is capable of keeping it close - and sharp bettors have indicated that they could.

NFL

Denver (-4) at Cleveland (Sunday, 1 pm ET): Just about three-quarters of all bets have come in on the Broncos this week, yet the line opened at 5 and has dropped to 4 points. That's a good sign that Cleveland is worth a play here. There are a few things that seem to be going on here. For starters, Denver is a very public team and Cleveland is a team that always is easy to disrespect, so the general public will bet without even thinking. The Denver defense is also getting too much respect. People are focusing on the fact that they are the No. 1 defense in yards allowed and ignoring that they really haven't played a potent offense yet - Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, and Oakland. They may be good, but we can't be sure, and Cleveland is amassing a lot of passing yards lately. Denver, meanwhile, has an offense that ranks just 30th in total yards and is terrible on the ground. It's concerning to bet on an impotent offense as a solid road favorite.

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