Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report 10/30/2015

by Trevor Whenham - 10/30/2015

The very strong start for the Public Action Report continued last week. Our selected team covered all four spreads, and the Raiders were big outright winners as four-point underdogs. It has been a wildly-profitable year so far through three weeks - 9-3 ATS - and we'll hope for that streak to continue with this collection of four games. To be honest, though, this is the least inspiring group of games - especially on the college side - that we have seen so far this season. The games don't have to be interesting or fun to watch, though - they just have to be profitable.

Quick refresher on the criteria. We are looking for games in which the sharp money is clearly going against strong public action, and the sharp money is big enough and coordinated enough to move the line against that public action. When that happens it is often, and the results have proven this year, a good idea to go against the public and with the sharps.

So, without further ado, here are the games for this week - three from college on Saturday, and one in the NFL on Sunday.

College football

Charlotte (+18.5) vs. Marshall (Saturday, Noon ET): Marshall opened as massive 21-point favorites and has drawn 85 percent of all bets on this game. Despite that, the line has fallen a full four points to 17, and had briefly dropped to 16.5. That's a clear sign that sharp money is hitting Charlotte and that they are worth our attention as a result. Marshall is clearly the better team. They are facing some injury issues on their offensive line, though, and that could have an impact on their offensive output. They have also failed to cover both times they were favorites of 17-or-more points previously this year. This is clearly a play all about Marshall, though - Charlotte has not yet covered a spread at home this year.

Illinois (+4.5) at Penn State (Saturday, Noon ET): Penn State opened as six-point favorites but are now favored by just 4.5 - and even four in some spots - despite having drawn three-quarters of all bets on the game. That means that Illinois gets our attention in this one. Penn State has failed to cover their last two spreads. Illinois has covered two of their last three, including two games back when they covered as solid road favorites at Iowa - a team that is better than this Penn State one.

SMU (+2.5) vs. Tulsa (Saturday, 4 pm ET): This game opened with Tulsa favored on the road by the key number of three. More than 80 percent of all bets have been placed on Tulsa. Despite that, the line has made a small but very significant move to 2.5. Books don't like moving off of the key number of three unless they really have to, and this move makes it easier for Tulsa bettors to cover the spread and avoid a push, so it is clear that sharp bettors have been hitting SMU hard. That means that we should look at the Mustangs, too. Tulsa has lost four of five and has not covered in their two opportunities as favorites this year. Of course, SMU isn't good, either - they have lost their last five and are 2-3 ATS over that time. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and Tulsa is 2-8 ATS in those last 10, so the opinion seems to be that Tulsa is getting more respect than they deserve.

NFL

Chicago (+1) vs. Minnesota (Sunday, 1 pm ET): Minnesota opened as 2.5-point favorites on the road and has drawn more than 70 percent of all bets. Despite that, the line has fallen to one. That means that we should be looking at Chicago, a home underdog, here, because sharp money clearly is. Minnesota has covered five straight, but they are playing their second straight road divisional game and could be weary. They have also not played well in Chicago - just 1-6 ATS in their last seven. Chicago, meanwhile, has covered three in a row themselves, and is coming off a bye week, which should allow them to address some issues and come out healthy and sharp.

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