Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report 10/22/2015

by Trevor Whenham - 10/22/2015

San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers

Despite the late start this year, it has been a good year for the public action report so far. We have only had games to play the last two weeks, but both weeks have been profitable. Last week there were two winners among the three games, including Wyoming, which not only covered the spread but won outright as 6.5-point underdogs. It's a very interesting four-game slate this week, so here's hoping that the success continues.

Since we didn't do it last week we'll again take a close look at just what we are looking for here. Sportsbooks do not tell us how much money has been bet on games before they are played or how much is on each team, but they will tell us what percentage of bets have been placed on each team. Generally, we would expect the amount of money bet to approximately mirror those percentages. We also can generally assume how the lines are going to move - sportsbooks will make the more-popular betting team less attractive in an attempt to balance the betting action and maximize their profits while minimizing or eliminating risk. That's how things should work.

What we are looking for is situations where it doesn't work like that at all. We want to find games in which a strong majority of bets are on one team yet the line has moved to make that team more attractive - not less like we would assume. When that happens it means that sportsbooks have a reason not to fear action on the more-popular team - most likely that sharp money has hit the less-popular team hard. If books are showing a contrary opinion then it's often worth our while to steal their opinion. In these four games, then, we're going to go against the strong public opinion in the search for profit:

College football

Maryland (+6.5) vs. Penn State (Saturday, 3:30 pm ET): The Nittany Lions opened as eight-point favorites, and nearly 80 percent of bets have been on them. Not only has the line fallen a point and a half to 6.5, though, but it has moved through the key number of seven. Movement through a key number is particularly interesting for this report because books don't like doing it unless they have to. Penn State has not won on the road in two tries so far, so they could be vulnerable here. More significantly, this is the first game for Maryland since their coaching change. Not having to play for Randy Edsall anymore would make any player perform better, and we often see improved efforts in the short term when a long-anticipated change finally happens. The Terps were surprisingly solid last time out at Ohio State, too.

Ole Miss (-5.5) vs. Texas A&M (Saturday, 7 pm ET): It is quite rare that we are pointed at a favorite in the public action report, but this is the first of two in a row this week. The game opened with Ole Miss favored by five points. Bets have poured in on the underdog - nearly three-quarters of bets have been on the Aggies. Despite that the line has shifted to 5.5 and has even touched six in many places. That means that Ole Miss gets our attention here. The Rebels have had two rough losses in their last three, but they are unbeaten at home. They also get star tackle Laremy Tunsil back from suspension this week. The Aggies lost convincingly to Alabama at home last week, so they aren't exactly dominant right now, either.

USC (-3.5) vs. Utah (Saturday, 7:30 pm ET): Here's another very interesting one. Four out of five bets have come in on Utah, yet the line opened at the key number of three and has climbed a small but significant half point to 3.5. That is a strong indication that USC is worth a close look here. The Trojans have had a full week without drama to get ready for this one - the Sarkisian fiasco impacted their preparation for Notre Dame last week. They played well at the Irish, out-gaining them and leading into the fourth quarter. They are at home where they will be comfortable, they need to win to have any chance to salvage their season, and even if they haven't looked like it they have a massive edge in depth and overall talent in this one. It's a unique game - the No. 3 Utes are the highest-seeded underdog in more than 20 years - but a case can be made for the Trojans, and the line movement makes that case strong.

NFL

Oakland (+4) at San Diego (Sunday, 4 pm ET): I don't look at the line movement compared to the betting percentages until I am starting to write this report each week. It makes me very happy whenever the report justifies a feeling that I already had - and that is the case here. The game opened with San Diego favored by five points, but that has fallen widely to four and is now at 3.5 in many places. Nearly three-quarters of bets have been on the Chargers, so the Raiders are the clear choice here. Oakland has played reasonably well in their last two losses and won two in a row before that. They are also coming off a bye week that will have allowed them to tighten up things that had come loose. San Diego has lost four of five, and that lone win was a narrow win over the Browns at home. Oakland looked much better over the Browns, and that was in Cleveland.

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