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NFL Week 3 Underdog Odds and Picks for the Best Money Value Bets

by - 9/24/2015

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton

Week 2 of the NFL season was ripe with upsets-some of them expected and more than a few of them shocking. Nine underdogs managed to pull off upsets by not only covering their spreads but winning those matchups outright. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets won their games as significant underdogs, while the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars may have pulled off the most surprising victories of the weekend.

The underdogs managed to win 60 percent of Week 2's 15 matchups, which is a fantastic number for bettors that love to take the points. For Week 3 of the season, those numbers might return back to earth a bit, but there are still a few solid underdog situations to consider. Let's take a closer look at this week's underdogs and figure out which have the best value.

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 at Baltimore Ravens : Baltimore is coming off a horrible loss to the Oakland Raiders during Week 2, while Cincinnati destroyed Oakland during the opening Week of the year. The Ravens haven't looked great on either side of the ball, and through two games they rank in the Bottom 20 in total yards gained, rushing yards produced, and points allowed. Quarterback Joe Flacco has already stated the importance of this game, but if his team doesn't have the talent, the motivation won't do much. Playing at home probably won't be enough to fix Baltimore's issues.

Chicago Bears +14 at Seattle : Seattle is winless, and it still has not covered a spread. Most of their problems will be fixed this week with the return of safety Kam Chancellor and a visit from the 0-2 Chicago Bears. Nothing is ever a lock in the NFL, but even Chicago fans will have a hard time believing the Bears will win this game. Covering the spread, however, is an entirely different issue. Chicago stayed close in Green Bay during Week 1, while Seattle may deal with chemistry issues once Chancellor returns to the team. The defending NFC champions are currently ranked 29th in points allowed and 21st in passing yards allowed. Chicago is a mess, but 14 points is a lot of points, and a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game can turn a 20-point victory into a 13-point one.

Detroit Lions +3.5 vs Denver Broncos : These teams couldn't be further apart on paper. Denver is undefeated; Detroit still winless; Denver is 2-0 ATS; Detroit is 0-2, and yet both groups seem to be trending in opposite directions. Peyton Manning and the Broncos struggled during their first two games and needed huge plays on defense (a late-game interception during the first game and multiple fumbles during the second) to get those victories. Detroit, on the other hand, has an injured quarterback to account for its 0-2 start, but by all reports Matthew Stafford's rib issues seem to be getting better. Manning may not officially be done yet, but now is probably the time for bettors to jump off the NFL legend's bandwagon.

Kansas City +6.5 at Green Bay : Green Bay, of course, looks like a juggernaut once again. The team has been solid on defense and has the best quarterback in the league in Aaron Rodgers running the show on offense. However, despite Kansas City's dumb mistakes and turnover issues from last week, the team played fantastic against Denver, and the group showed signs of something scary and dominant on both ends of the ball. Of course, Andy Reid is going to be Andy Reid, which is why we can never be fully confident in the Chiefs. I am not predicting an upset, but Green Bay has played two relatively close games (both decided by 10 points or less) and Kansas City covering this spread and keeping things tight is a reasonable expectation.

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