NFL Totals Betting: Best and Worst Season Records plus Week 7 Value

by George Monroy - 10/22/2015

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton

Wagering on spreads every single week can be a tricky proposition, and many times they can leave gamblers feeling like they have to bet on something even though a certain line doesn't jump off the board. Wagering on totals, however, can be a great way to break up the monotony of a long betting season and help NFL bettors stay refreshed and get out of a gambling rut. Let's take a quick look at the best "over" and "under" teams and figure out which lines have the most value heading into Week 7 of the season.

Best "Over" Teams

Cleveland Browns

Totals Record: 6-0

Week 7's Line: At St. Louis, O/U 42

Cleveland has been an "over" machine through the first six weeks of the season. The team is beating their totals by an average of 7.8 points per game and has tallied over 48 combined points in five of six matchups. The Browns may not be winning games, but they are scoring and giving up points at a rapid pace. Next week's matchup against St. Louis feels like a great spot to take an over since the Rams can score and try to air out the ball at times. Don't expect a 50-point game, but this matchup should end in the mid-40s.

Arizona Cardinals

Totals Record: 5-1

Week 7's Line: Versus Baltimore, O/U 48.5

Arizona has the largest point differential in the league (yes, even higher than New England's) and has been single-handedly covering overs by itself. Through six weeks the Cardinals are beating their overs by an average of 7.4 points per game and have averaged over 50 combined points in four of their six matchups. Last week against Pittsburgh was the first time the team failed to go over, and that performance could be a sign of things to come. The total for Arizona's next matchup against Baltimore at 48.5 is quite high even though the Ravens currently have a 4-2 totals record. This feels like a matchup that bettors can skip.

Cincinnati Bengals

Totals Record: 5-1

Week 7's Line: Bye

Cincinnati is impressive at just about everything these days. The squad is 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS and 4-2 against its overs-what's not to love? Andy Dalton has his offense ranked in the Top 10 in four major categories, while ranking fourth in points scored at 30.3 per game. The team has a bye for Week 7 but will return in a road matchup against Pittsburgh on Nov. 1. Cincinnati has gone over 50 combined points in four straight games. I would suggest that bettors strongly consider taking the over in Week 8.

Best "Under" Teams

Minnesota Vikings

Totals Record: 0-5

Week 7's Line: at Detroit, O/U 45

Minnesota's red-zone defense has been the key to the team's fantastic "under" record. The squad isn't ranked in the Top 10 in any major defensive categories, expect points allowed, where it is ranked second with an average of 16.6 allowed points per game-a ridiculous number for a 3-2 team. The Vikings are also staying under by an average of 7.7 points per game. Next week's matchup against Detroit looks like a great spot to go under since the Lions have struggled to produce any meaningful offense all season.

Philadelphia Eagles

Total Record: 1-5

Week 7's Line: at Carolina, 46.5

Philadelphia's under mark is a bit surprising since Chip Kelly's offensive system was expected to be a juggernaut this season. The team is averaging 24 points a game while giving up only 18 and has gone over the 44-point mark only twice in six games. These unders seem to be a combination of a struggling offense, a decent defense and high totals marks to begin with-Philadelphia has seen four totals over the 49-point mark. Carolina, however, has been on the opposite end of the totals spectrum with a 3-1-1 mark through five games. Next week's matchup will be fast paced to stay the least, so go against the trend and thinking about an over might be the best play to make.

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