NFL Survivor Pools Strategy Advice and Predictions: Week 4

by Trevor Whenham - 9/29/2015

The football gods were particularly cruel to survivor pool players in Week 2. For those who survived, though, the reward was a much more straightforward week in Week 3. New England was the obvious choice, and they only won by almost five touchdowns. Green Bay cruised as another fairly obvious pick - though a lot of people picked Green Bay already in the opening week. The Seahawks won big, too. Even the Texans, a long shot that drew some attention from players, easily took care of things. So, last week went smoothly all in all. But what about this week? Well, luckily, there are a few games that stand out as very playable and that feature teams that are likely available as picks. To identify the teams, we'll take a look at all six games featuring favorites of at least 6.5 points:

Seattle (-10) vs. Detroit: This is a reasonable pick, though not as comfortable as the odds suggest. Detroit has not been good this year. Matthew Stafford can't get things rolling, and the offense is all but impotent as a result. The Seahawks at full strength would roll through this one. The Seahawks as they are now will likely win, too, but it's not as much of a sure thing. They looked much better last week than in their first two games, but the Bears are a total mess, and that has as much to do with that dominating performance as anything. Seattle still isn't nearly as easy to trust in any aspect of their game as you would like a double-digit favorite to be. I would pick Seattle if I had to, but they would only be my third choice in the week as we'll soon see.

Arizona (-6.5) vs. St. Louis: The Cardinals are playing exceptional football and are a highly-talented team. The Rams are playing well below expectations. They are not as sound on defense as they should be with that line, and their offense is just flat. They aren't terrible, but they aren't playing with any urgency or enthusiasm. The Cardinals have an edge in many matchups, have a huge edge in coaching, and are playing with ferocious intensity. The Cardinals are the most comfortable pick of the week, and it's not even close in my eyes.

Atlanta (-6.5) vs. Houston: If you can't or won't take the Cardinals then this is where I would be looking next. This game illustrates the difference between a great coaching change and an average one. In his first year Dan Quinn already has transformed this Falcons team. The talent has always been there, but the team had consistently fallen well short of their capabilities. They are only three weeks into the season now, so we can't be sure of anything, but their focus, intensity, and attention to detail are so far ahead of where they have been that it is remarkable. Houston, meanwhile, just doesn't seem to be going anywhere under Bill O'Brien. He can't make a QB decision he has faith in. His team lacks consistency and intensity - especially late in games. They just aren't as good as they should be - not even close. Atlanta is the more talented team and the much better coached one. Safe pick here.

Indianapolis (-8.5) vs. Jacksonville: I wouldn't touch this one at all. The Colts should be much better than they have looked so far, but the reality is that they have lost twice and won once by a very narrow margin. They have looked horrible, and their collective mindset is a long way from ideal. The Jaguars were crushed by the Pats last week, but so would most teams right now. They are not a great team, but they are capable enough. The Colts should win, but you can't be sure of anything right now. I see no reason at all to make this pick.

San Diego (-8) vs. Cleveland: Like the previous game, this one should be straightforward, but I can't justify it. The Chargers are not at all where they should be right now. They do not look sharp on either side of the ball. They should be much better than Cleveland, but the Browns have big-play potential, and they did look very good in one game. Too much of a gamble here.

Denver (-6.5) vs. Minnesota: Close your eyes and think about one thing - can you imagine the Vikings winning this one? Sure you can. Teddy Bridgewater is solid, and the running game is good. Denver's offense is an adventure this year, too. I'm not saying that the Vikings will win, but they could - and it wouldn't at all qualify as a surprise for anyone who is paying attention. Why pick a game this uncertain when so many better options exist.

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Start:	November 21, 2024 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
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