NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice: Week 3

by Matt Severance - 9/23/2015

I can honestly say that I've never seen such chaos in Survivor Pools than from what happened last week in the NFL. I know of several that already have concluded, including one major ESPN media pool.

It was a crazy week of upsets. I warned you in this space to stay clear of New Orleans in its home opener and as the biggest favorite on the board against Tampa Bay, and indeed the Bucs won 26-19. Now I just wish Drew Brees wasn't my fantasy quarterback!

Other surprises last week: Washington over St. Louis (I called that one as my Upset of Week), Oakland over Baltimore, Jacksonville over Miami, Dallas over Philadelphia, and the New York Jets over Indianapolis. Stunned the Ravens, Eagles and Colts are all 0-2 (so is Seattle, but it was expected to lose in Week 2 at Green Bay). My top choice in Week 2 was Cincinnati over San Diego, and the Bengals won 24-19.

There have been a lot of close calls thus far as 24 of 32 games (75 percent) have been within one score in the fourth quarter. There have been six games in which the winning points were scored in the final 75 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime.

Here we go for Week 3 -- where one team is clearly going to be the choice by the vast majority of any remaining competitors in your pools. Again, first team listed is the choice.

Top Choice Of Week

Seattle vs. Chicago: The Bears are going to be at least two touchdown underdogs for the first time since the eminently forgettable Dave Wannstedt Era. Jay Cutler is not playing in this game (wuss!), so it's Jimmy Clausen against what's going to be a bunch of Angry Birds at 0-2. This one is going to be very, very ugly for the Bears. Also, Seattle is getting back Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor as he has ended his holdout. Let me be clear here: This is the obvious top choice, but if you want to play "defense" and steer clear because the Seahawks are going to be a popular pick, I do understand that. I suppose anything is possible, but I see no way the Bears are competitive.

Pretty Confident

New England vs. Jacksonville: This could be closer than people expect. The Patriots might be in letdown mode after opening with big wins over Pittsburgh and Buffalo and with a bye week up next. If this were in Florida, I might even be thinking upset. But Tom Brady is so good right now that the Patriots will win.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: Can we hold off anointing Andrew Luck as the next John Elway? He's more like Brett Favre -- there will be some really great highs, but also a lot of turnovers. Luck was flat-out awful in Monday's home loss to the Jets and leads the NFL in turnovers, even over my boy Cutler, since 2014. Still, the Colts are much more talented than the Titans and can't afford go to 0-3.

Green Bay vs. Kansas City (Monday): Possible letdown game here for the Packers as they badly wanted payback on the Seahawks last week and got it. Green Bay running back Eddie Lacy also is in question. Plus, the Chiefs had a few extra days to prepare after gagging away a win last Thursday night at home vs. Denver.

Could Go Either Way

NY Giants vs. Washington (Thursday): The Giants could be 2-0 and probably should be, but Eli Manning has imploded in the fourth quarter of both losses. I'm starting to think the Redskins actually aren't that bad as they are leading the league in rushing behind the 1-2 punch of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones. But the Giants have handled the Redskins each of the past two years and should again.

Atlanta at Dallas: If this were in Atlanta, this game would be one category up. No Tony Romo or Dez Bryant for sure for Dallas. Possibly no Jason Witten. Is Brandon Weeden, Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden or Terrance Williams going to win this game? I don't think so. When there's a clear QB mismatch in a game, at any level, it's an easy call. And the Falcons have that in Matt Ryan over Weeden.

Baltimore vs. Cincinnati: Ravens are too talented to start 0-3, although they sure did miss pass-rushing stud Terrell Suggs in last week's loss in Oakland.

Carolina vs. New Orleans: If Brees doesn't play with his bruised rotator cuff, move this one up a category. Brees has never missed a game since joining the Saints.

Philadelphia at NY Jets: You already hear rumors that maybe Chip Kelly will return to college next season. He might be forced out of Philly if the Eagles continue to play like they have. Any major program would trip over itself (Texas? Tennessee? USC?) to get Kelly. I still have some faith, but not if the Eagles lose this one. The Jets already have forced 10 turnovers. They had just 13 takeaways all last season.

Minnesota vs. San Diego: Tough for those West Coast teams to play a 1 p.m. ET start like the Bolts will here. Minnesota's Adrian Peterson looked back to his Pro Bowl self in Week 2's win over Detroit.

St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh: You could see the Rams' letdown coming in Week 2 at Washington, but I think they are a totally different club at home. The Steelers do welcome back star running back Le'Veon Bell from suspension, however.

Arizona vs. San Francisco: Maybe Carson Palmer should be the league MVP if he stays on the field. Palmer has seven TD passes already, and the Cardinals are 15-2 in his past 17 starts. Rookie running back David Johnson looks like the real deal as well.

Miami vs. Buffalo: My prediction is that the Fins fire Coach Joe Philbin if they lose this game and then next week against the Jets in London; he will be gone during the bye following that London trip. The Bills' Tyrod Taylor remembered he was Tyrod Taylor for much of last week's loss to New England.

Houston vs. Tampa Bay: What has been the worst team to ever appear on "Hard Knocks" that same season? Might be these Texans. They just don't have a quarterback. Trade for Texas native Robert Griffin III? It's possible Houston does get back running back Arian Foster this week.

Upset Of Week

Detroit vs. Denver: This is only if Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford plays, and that's far from a sure thing. He had to have X-rays on his ribs and chest on Monday. The Lions usually are a very different club at home, and this is their home opener.

Why Bother?

Cleveland vs. Oakland: I'm stunned that Browns coach Mike Pettine has already said Josh McCown will be his starter in this one. Johnny Manziel did some good things with McCown out with a concussion in Week 2. Maybe Manziel isn't your future at QB, but McCown definitely isn't.

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