NFL Props Odds with Expert Betting Picks and Predictions 10/23/2015

by Dave Schwab - 10/23/2015

When it comes to special props for the NFL, nobody does it better than Bovada. Heading into Week 7 of the regular season, it has released a whole new set of unique betting odds for a pair of backup quarterbacks that will be under the gun to get their team a much-needed win. I will take a closer look at a pair of these special player props on the board for Week 7 and give you my "best bet" pick for each.

Pittsburgh Quarterback Landry Jones Total Passing Yards

Even though Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger has not been officially ruled out of this Sunday's road game against Kansas City, head coach Mike Tomlin is moving forward with plans to start third-string quarterback Landry Jones given Michael Vick's hamstring injury.

Betting lines for this game remain "off the board" at this time, but Bovada has released prop bet odds for the "over/under" for Landry's total passing yards against the Chiefs. The moneyline for over 210.5 yards has been set at -130, and the moneyline on the under is an even money +100.

My first thought is that Big Ben is going to do everything he can to be on the field this Sunday, which would make the play on the under a no-brainer. However, given that the struggling Chiefs are just 1-5 on the year, this game presents the perfect opportunity to give him at least one more week to let his knee fully heal.

So my actual thought is to go with the -130 odds on the over in this prop given what Jones was able to accomplish last week against Arizona in his only regular-season action in his three-year NFL career. When Vick went down in the third quarter, Jones came into the game and proceeded to complete eight of his 12 attempts for 168 yards against an Arizona defense that is still ranked ninth in the NFL in passing yards allowed (224.2). It also helps that Kansas City's defense is ranked 25^th in the league against the pass in allowing an average of 276.7 yards a game.

Dallas Quarterback Matt Cassel Total Passing Yards

We know that Tony Romo is still ruled out for Sunday's key NFL East showdown against the New York Giants, and we also know that Cowboys' head coach Jason Garrett had already decided to bench backup Brandon Weeden for journeyman Matt Cassel during last week's bye.

Dallas traded for the 11-year veteran to bolster the quarterback position in light of Romo's shoulder injury, and Bovada's prop bet odds for the over/under on Cassel's total passing yards in Sunday's game against the Giants has been set at -115 for both the over and under 220.5.

Cassel started his career in New England, and the Cowboys are his fifth NFL team after coming over from Buffalo earlier in the season. His last action in the regular season was last year for Minnesota when he started three games. His overall stats in those games were rather unimpressive with a total of 425 total yards passing on 71 attempts for a completion rate of just 57.7 percent. That could have been more a product of the Vikings' poor offense than his ability as a NFL quarterback.

When Weeden was under center for Dallas, he threw for 232 yards against Atlanta, 246 yards against New Orleans and 187 yards against New England in his last three starts. To me, this clearly paves the way for a play on the over 220.5 in this prop given just how much Dallas has relied on the pass to move the ball. The Cowboys are averaging 241.8 passing yards a game against a ground game that is ranked 18^th in the NFL with 106.6 yards a game.

Bonus Pick- Seattle Blown 4^th Quarter Leads

Much has been made about Seattle's last two losses when the Seahawks blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead against Cincinnati and a late 10-point lead against Carolina. Bovada has set the over/under for future Seahawks' losses when leading after three quarters at 1.5 for the rest of the regular season. The moneyline for the over is set at +110, and the under is set at -150.

Coming off a 20-3 victory over San Francisco on Thursday night, the Seahawks are 3-4 with nine games left to play. It is hard to say whether or not this defense has turned the corner with this win given just how bad the 49ers are. I still believe the loss of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn (who is now the head coach with 5-1 Atlanta) has had a major impact on this unit, and for that reason alone I would go with the over in this prop given the better value in the betting odds.

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