NFL Props Odds with Expert Betting Picks and Predictions 10/16/2015

by Dave Schwab - 10/16/2015

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck

Bovada remains one of the top sportsbooks when it comes to betting on the NFL. In addition to a full set of betting lines for all the games on the schedule, you can usually find a few special prop bet odds centering on team and player storylines that are trending with bettors right now. I will take a closer look at what is on the board for Week 6 and give you my "best bet" pick for each of the three props listed.

New England at Indianapolis: Deflategate "Over/Under"

This Sunday night, the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts will face off against one another for the first time since last season's AFC Championship in which the now infamous "Deflategate" scandal took place. This incident garnered a ridiculous amount of media attention right up to the start of this season, especially when it came to the recent court battle between the NFL and Tom Brady over his four-game suspension.

To keep the fire burning a bit, Bovada has set an "over/under" prop bet on how many times the words "Deflate, Deflated, Deflating, or Deflategate" will be mentioned in Sunday night's broadcast. The moneyline odds for "Over" 2.5 have been set at -200 and the odds for "Under" 2.5 have been set at +150.

This one could easily go either way with no mention at all in light of the NFL trying to get past this debacle, or it could go way over with a number of mentions at the start of the game and also at the end once the outcome has been decided.

The deciding factor for me is broadcaster Chris Collinsworth. Even if the NFL put a gag order on this broadcasting team as far as mentioning anything about the whole Deflategate scandal, I do not think he could keep himself from making at least three references using one of the key words listed above during Sunday night's game even if he wanted to.

Aaron Rodgers: Home Interceptions

The Green Bay Packers are off to a perfect 5-0 start, and as expected quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played a huge role in his team's early success. Heading into this Sunday's home game against San Diego, he has completed 108-of-153 attempts for 1,236 yards and 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions.

Both of those picks came in last Sunday's 24-10 victory against St. Louis at Lambeau Field and with five home games remaining on the Packers' regular-season schedule, including this Sunday against the Chargers, Bovada has set the moneyline odds at -600 that he will throw at least one more interception at home. The moneyline is set at +400 that he goes through these five remaining home games with no more picks.

Common sense would dictate a play on the "yes" in this prop given the high probability that Rodgers slips up at least one more time in front of the home-town crowd, but I would be willing to bet against it with a small play on those highly-attractive +400 odds.

Rodgers has been in a zone so far, and if you go back to last season he was intercepted only five times on 520 attempts and every one of picks were on the road. Since 2011, Rodgers has thrown 2,017 passes. and while he has completed 67.2 of those attempts he has been picked off only 27 times.

Arizona Cardinals Point Differential

The Cardinals have won four of their first five games while scoring a league-high 190 points while holding their opponents to 90 points. This is the top point differential in the NFL through the first five weeks, and Bovada has set the moneyline odds at +200 that Arizona will end the regular season still leading the league in this department. The odds that the Cardinals do not have the top point differential in the league have been set at -300.

Betting on the "No" in this prop is a high-risk/low-reward wager, but I still believe that I would go in that direction. The Cardinals have been playing at a very high level, but their four wins have come against New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco and Detroit, which are hardly the cream of the crop in the league this year. Their lone loss was against St. Louis at home, which also sends up a red flag. Lurking down the road is a road game against Pittsburgh this Sunday, two games against Seattle and a Week 16 matchup against Green Bay.

You also have to keep in mind that New England's point differential is +73 after just four games. The Packers are +56 followed by Cincinnati (+47) and Denver (+34), and all three of these teams remain undefeated on the year.

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