NFL Odds and Betting Week 5: Line Movements & Last-Minute News

by Alan Matthews - 10/9/2015

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

Bovada has an interesting Week 5 special asking whether all six unbeaten teams will make the playoffs. Let's take a look at them and project.

New England (3-0): Patriots should get to 4-0 on Sunday with a win at injury-depleted Dallas -- Pats are taking biggest lean of any team in Week 5 -- and they are a lock to make it obviously assuming good health for Tom Brady.

Cincinnati (4-0): With Ben Roethliberger's injury and the Ravens and Browns both at 1-3 in the AFC North, Bengals will win the division.

Denver (4-0): Already with a two-game lead in the AFC West and it could be three by Monday night. Broncos win division again.

Green Bay (4-0): Packers currently the +300 Super Bowl favorites and might clinch the NFC North by early November.

Carolina (4-0): This team I'm still not sold on as its wins are over some pretty lousy quarterbacks: Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Ryan Mallett (Texans), Luke McCown (Saints with Drew Brees out injured that game) and Jameis Winston (might be good some day but an inconsistent rookie right now). The Panthers are on the bye this week but come out of it with four very tough games: at Seahawks, vs. Eagles, vs. Colts, vs. Packers. I don't think Carolina makes it.

Atlanta (4-0): Obviously either the Falcons or Panthers will win the South -- they still have to play twice. I go with Atlanta. It should be 5-0 after beating the visiting Redskins on Sunday. And should the Falcons turn around and win in New Orleans on Thursday night, they might be 9-0 entering their bye week.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 5.

Bears at Chiefs (-10, 45): What does this say about Chicago that it has the same 1-3 record as Kansas City but is a double-digit dog? Plus the Chiefs are on a three-game losing streak, while the Bears are off a victory. Be interesting to see that Chicago defense, which struggles to get to the quarterback, against a Kansas City offensive line that has allowed an NFL-high 19 sacks. The Bears will have a new starting center after losing Will Montgomery to a season-ending fractured fibula in Week 4. And they might be down arguably their top two receivers as Alshon Jeffery almost surely is going to miss another game and Eddie Royal is questionable. This is going to be the most boring game of Week 5. Run, run, short pass, punt. Repeat. Bears are taking the nearly 60 percent lean here.

Rams at Packers (-10, 46.5): Green Bay joins Kansas City as the biggest favorite of Week 5, but this game is currently being bet pretty much down the middle -- I believe the Rams could beat the Packers if the game were in St. Louis. But at Lambeau, the Pack are just a different animal. They have won 11 straight home games (including playoffs), the longest active home winning streak in the NFL. Green Bay has scored 383 points over its last 10 regular-season home games, the highest total in team history over a span of 10 home games. Only the "Greatest Show On Turf" Rams in 1999 and 2000 (403) and the Denver Broncos spanning 2012 and 2013 (399) won 10 consecutive home games while scoring as many points as the Packers. Here's another mind-boggling stat: Green Bay has scored in the first quarter in 20 straight regular-season games, the longest current streak in the league. So if betting on first team to score, there's your lean. The Rams lost excellent linebacker Alec Ogletree in Week 4 to a fractured fibula.

Bills at Titans (+2, 41.5): This line has dropped a point from its opening. And it should have. Buffalo will be without its top two running backs in LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams due to injuries. That means someone named Bookie Dixon -- wasn't he in "Friday Night Lights"? -- will get the start. And Buffalo might again be without No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins, although there's still a chance he can go. Tennessee come of its bye week, which is another advantage for the Titans. I think they win this outright.

Seahawks at Bengals (-3, 43): Everything would seem to point against Seattle here. The Seahawks are on the short week after escaping against the Lions on Monday. Then you have the 10 a.m. Pacific time start in Cincinnati. Top running back Marshawn Lynch is going to be a game-time decision again but it's more likely than not he misses another game. With a win on Sunday, the Bengals will have started 5-0 for the third time in franchise history (1975, 1988). In 1988, Cincinnati finished the season 12-4 en route to a Super Bowl XXIII appearance. Andy Dalton needs to get some NFL MVP love. He is third in the NFL with 1,187 passing yards and has nine touchdowns and just one pick for a rating of 123.0 that's only behind Aaron Rodgers. Dalton has had a passer rating of 115 or better in each of the team's first four games. He is only the second QB since the rating was implemented to do that -- the other was John Hadl in 1973. No one has done it five in a row to open a season.

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