NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Predictions

by Alan Matthews - 11/12/2015

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson

I haven't touched on too many Sunday night games yet this season, but clearly this week's NBC nationally-televised matchup between Arizona and Seattle is the week's most important game. Some might argue Patriots at Giants, but interconference games are simply not that vital when you factor in the playoff tiebreaker.

Both the Cardinals and Seahawks are off their bye week. Arizona (6-2) leads Seattle (4-4) and St. Louis (4-4) by two games in the NFC West. So one would think that the Cardinals would win the division with a victory over the Seahawks. Then again, Arizona started last year 9-1 and was in total command of the West before fading after Carson Palmer was lost for the season. The Seahawks certainly need this more, not just because it's at home. They are eighth in the NFC standings and lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with No. 7 St. Louis, which beat Seattle in the season opener.

At BetOnline , Arizona is -150 to win the West with Seattle at +160.

Cardinals at Seahawks Betting Story Lines

With each team off last week, both are pretty healthy. Seattle did lose receiver Ricardo Lockette for the season when he hurt his neck in the Week 8 13-12 win at Dallas. He had only four catches but was a good special teams player. The Seahawks will get back receiver Paul Richardson this week. He had been on the PUP list off knee surgery. He had 29 catches for 271 yards and a TD last year as a rookie. Arizona receiver John Brown, who is having a nice season, missed the final game before the bye but is good to go.

A key to this game likely will be the ultra-aggressive Arizona defense, which still blitzes a ton even after losing coordinator Todd Bowles to the Jets. The Cardinals have blitzed on 44 percent of pass plays, second-most in the NFL (Jets' Bowles are No. 1). The Seahawks' offensive line hasn't been good this season. When opponents have blitzed the Seahawks, they've produced sacks 17.8 percent of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. That number was 10.7 percent last year. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has gone down an NFL-high 31 times -- it would be many more if Wilson wasn't so mobile. He is averaging 5.03 yards per dropback against pressure, which is 26th. Last season, Wilson was eighth. While the Cardinals only have 13 sacks, all that blitzing is leading to turnovers. They have forced 17 of them, with their 13 interceptions tied for the league lead. Arizona's "No Fly Zone" secondary is probably the second-best in the league right now behind Seattle's "Legion of Boom."

I still give Seattle's defense the overall edge as after a slow start it is rounding into form. The Seahawks haven't allowed an offensive touchdown their past two games, albeit against lousy quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick (since benched) and Matt Cassel. Both those were road games. Seattle is up to No. 2 in total and scoring defense behind Denver.

Certainly Arizona has the better offense, ranking No. 6 in yards and No. 2 in points (32.9 ppg). Palmer leads the NFC with 20 touchdown passes and is on pace to set the club's single-season mark currently held by Kurt Warner (30 in 2008). Palmer also leads the conference with a 110.2 passer rating, which would shatter the best single-season mark in club history. Running back Chris Johnson was signed off the scrap heap and has 676 yards on 141 carries. He is averaging 4.8 yards per carry through eight games (his best ypc since his 2,000-yard season in 2009 with Tennessee); the Cardinals averaged 3.3 ypc last season without Johnson. Receiver Larry Johnson looks like he's back in his prime years with 706 yards and seven scores; last year, he had 784 yards and two scores overall.

Seattle swept the Cards last year, totally shutting down Arizona offensively as it didn't have an injured Palmer in either game. In Week 12 in Seattle, the Seahawks won 19-3, starting their season-ending six-game winning streak and surge to the top of the NFC West. Arizona had only 204 total yards with Drew Stanton completing 14-for-26 for 149 yards with a pick. The Seahawks weren't much better on offense. Wilson was 17-for-22 for 211 yards and a TD but was sacked seven times. In Week 16 in the desert, the Seahawks won 35-6. Wilson threw for 339 yards and two scores while rushing for 88 yards and a TD. Marshawn Lynch added 113 yards and two TDs. Seattle had a franchise-record 596 yards. Arizona had 216 yards behind third-string QB Ryan Lindley, who was just terrible. I think he's selling cars now.

Cardinals at Seahawks Betting Odds and Trends

At 5Dimes , Seattle is -3 (-120) with a total of 44.5. On the moneyline, the Seahawks are -170 and Cardinals +150. On the alternate lines, Seattle is -4 (+113), -3.5 (+105), -2.5 (-145) and -2 (-150). Arizona is 5-3 against the spread (3-1 on road) and 6-2 "over/under" (3-1 on road). Seattle is 2-5-1 ATS (1-2 at home) and 3-5 O/U (1-2 at home).

Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its past eight November games. The Cards are 1-4 ATS in their past five following a bye week. The Seahawks have covered five of their past seven vs. the NFC West. They are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six after a win. The over is 6-0 in Arizona's past six vs. the NFC. The under is 10-3 in Seattle's past 13 vs. the NFC West. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in Seattle.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Cardinals at Seahawks Betting Prediction

I'm still not buying the Cardinals. Their six wins have all come against teams currently with losing records (14-36 total record) and their two losses are against teams with non-losing records (Rams and Steelers). Then again, Seattle's four wins are against losing teams. But the Seahawks should have beaten both Cincinnati and Carolina, two unbeatens. I'll give the 2.5-point alternate line and go under.

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