NFL Betting Advice: Handicapping the Denver Broncos Sans Manning

by Trevor Whenham - 11/19/2015

Denver Broncos Quarterback Brock Osweiler

We are heading into some unfamiliar territory on Sunday. Not only have we not seen Peyton Manning benched at a time that he could at least theoretically play, but we rarely see this happen to an elite quarterback of any kind. But here we are, one of the best quarterbacks of all time being sat down in favor of… Brock freaking Osweiler. Who would have ever guessed? Strange world we live in. The biggest question for us here, of course, is what this means for Denver from a betting perspective. The short answer, of course, is nothing good. In more detail:

Had to be done: I am very negative about the prospects of Osweiler, but I will still start with a positive. The fact of the matter is that Manning's disastrous game last week wasn't a one-time thing. He just hasn't been good enough this year. That wasn't an issue when the defense was saving him and he was finding enough final heroics to hide the issues. A change had to be made, and especially so now that he is basically walking dead. The team would never openly revolt against a guy like Manning, but you have to believe that they are at least somewhat relieved that what had to be seen like a hopeless situation has changed. It might not be an improvement, but at least the coaching staff had the courage to do what many staffs would not. That could count for something.

Manning isn't Bledsoe: Off the top of my head I can think of two guys that have stepped in midseason to replace high-level starters and become instant stars in recent years - Tom Brady and Tony Romo. The common thread between those two is that they were both taking over for Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe is long since retired - even though he's only three years older than Manning - so Osweiler doesn't have that advantage. Not only that, but Osweiler has to take over for the highest-profile QB - or at least the highest profile outside of Boston, arguably - and that will mean a ridiculous amount of pressure.

The Gase factor: For two years before this one, Adam Gase was the offensive coordinator for the Broncos. Before that he was the QB coach for the Broncos. He had coached Osweiler every year, then, until now - when he left to become the offensive coordinator of the Bears. Now Osweiler has to make his first start against those Bears. You can be certain that the defensive staff has spent a lot of time picking Gase's brain this week to get prepared for Osweiler. That is not good news for the first-time starter. In fact, it's pretty much the worst possible scenario. Plus, Gase has his new charge, Jay Cutler, playing the best he has played in a long time, and Cutler will never struggle for motivation to play Denver.

Osweiler has no real pro experience: I've openly been critical of Manning for a long time now. I respect him, obviously, but he has some faults that really impact his team negatively. One is really an issue right now. The easiest job in the NFL has always been Manning's backup. He doesn't like coming out of games - even when they are in hand. I have never played a down of real football in my life, and I could back him up most years. So now we have a guy who was drafted in 2012 and hasn't seen a meaningful snap since. He hasn't seen a lot of first-team reps as a result, either. Manning doesn't do enough to make sure that the team will be fine without him - largely because he likely thought that the team would never need to be without him until he decided to leave. Osweiler is an ugly combination of raw and rusty. Ugh.

Osweiler in college: I live in the western half of the continent, so I watch a lot of Pac-12 football. I saw Osweiler play a lot at Arizona State, and I wasn't nearly as impressed as I would like to be. As a sophomore he couldn't beat out Michigan castoff Steven Threet to be the starter. That's embarrassing. He was only a starter one year as a junior. His accuracy wasn't what it should have been; he threw 13 interceptions, and his arm position was a total mystery - it could be anywhere on any given pass. He was a solid QB, but if he wasn't the freakish physical specimen that he is - he's 6-foot-7 and athletically thick - he wouldn't have been drafted when he was given what he had done.

The offensive weapons: Manning's sudden lack of an arm was the biggest issue on offense, but it wasn't helped by a lot of other issues. The offensive weapons aren't what they have been in recent years, and that has hurt. Most significantly, the offensive line, which was a major concern coming into the season, has perhaps been better than expected, but it still hasn't been really good. Put a raw QB in with less than A+ offensive tools behind a questionable offensive line - sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

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